Tags: money

Bloomberg (After Prompting) Comes Clean on Margin Hikes

Editor’s Note: After allowing the alternative media to break the story about margin hikes in Shanghai and another round of increases by CME, Bloomberg finally mentions this fact as a driver in the ongoing correction in gold. One can only wonder if the info would have seen the light of day had we and several others not broken this information.

Gold fell, heading for the biggest three-day drop in almost three years, as demand for riskier assets eroded the appeal of the precious metal as a haven.

Gold futures rose as much as 18 percent this month, touching an all-time high of $1,917.90 an ounce on Aug. 23 before erasing most of the gains. The value of a 100-ounce futures contract in New York plunged $10,400 yesterday, more than the $7,425 margin requirement that day, prompting exchange owner CME Group Inc. to increase the minimum cash deposit on trades. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index headed for a weekly gain after a 16 percent decline in the previous four weeks.

“It looks nasty, but this is a normal correction given the magnitude of the move,” Matt Zeman, a strategist at Kingsview Financial in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The parabolic move finally collapsed. You’ve got a return to risk appetite, and that’s taken the wind out of gold’s sails.”

Gold futures for December delivery fell $20.40, or 1.2 percent, to $1,736.90 at 10:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York. A close at that price would leave the most-active contract down 8.2 percent in the past three sessions, the biggest slump since October 2008. In London, gold for immediate deliver was down $23, or 1.3 percent, at $1,736.32.

The metal is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. Central banks are adding to reserves for the first time in a generation, joining billionaire investors including John Paulson in hoarding bullion. The Federal Reserve has taken the unprecedented step of saying it will keep borrowing costs at almost zero percent at least through mid-2013 to support the economy.

‘Not Safe’

“Gold is a trade, gold is a position, gold is volatile, but gold is not safe,” Dennis Gartman, an economist, wrote today in his Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter. “The public is involved in gold, and the cab drivers of the world have bought into it. Now they are being taken out, at high cost.”

The Chicago-based CME raised margin requirements after gold futures surged to a record this month and then plunged the most since March 2008. The minimum cash deposit required to trade Comex futures will rise 27 percent to $9,450 per contract in the speculative Tier 1 category at the close of trading today, CME said late yesterday. The maintenance margin will rise to $7,000 from $5,500. The Shanghai Gold Exchange said Aug. 23 it will hike margins from settlement today.

“In our opinion, the margin is not nearly high enough yet,” Gartman said. “Proper margining would seem to be closer to $15,000 per contract.” Given the volatility in trading, “the exchange needs to protect itself and its clients” from the possibility of a large speculator or two putting “the exchange into jeopardy,” he said.

Speculator Holdings

Speculators held a net 218,403 futures and options contracts by Aug. 16, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Positions reached 253,653 contracts by Aug. 2, the most since at least 2006, the data show. The CFTC will update its tally tomorrow.

The 10-day historical volatility for gold futures jumped to 41 percent, the highest level since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Following CME’s margin increases, silver slumped as much as 35 percent in about three weeks from April 25, when the metal touched a 31-year high of $49.845 an ounce on the Comex.

Gold’s surge and decline is similar to silver’s earlier this year, John Roque, WJB Capital Group’s senior technical analyst, said in a note to clients.

“Gold has some support at $1,700, but it wouldn’t surprise us to see the metal retest its last breakout level at $1,580,” Roque said.

Gold is still trading above its 200-, 100- and 50-day moving averages. The price is below the 20-day moving average of $1,743.50.

Silver futures for December delivery rose $1.004, or 2.6 percent, to $40.205 on the Comex.

Pure Media Bias on Gold – Andy Sutton

Bloomberg News has been cheered in recent months for several ‘movements’ in quasi-honest reporting, most notably a recent article on the $1.2 Trillion (at a bare minimum) that went to the global aristocracy from the US fed at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. The very fact that this slice of men without a country profited so insanely from the crisis should give most people a pretty good idea of how contrived the crisis was to begin with.

Bloomberg was also credited with filing various FOIA requests in an effort to force the US fed to disclose recipients of various emergency loans. These minor victories for the truth may have gone a long way towards giving this news outlet a clean bill of health in people’s minds and an A+ on the objectivity stress test. Nothing could be further from the truth.

On a day when gold has dropped over $100 or almost 5.5%, investors went looking for the reasons why the correction has been so severe. Certainly the market was due for a correction; it had come a long way in a very short time for some very good fundamental reasons. However, even the strongest bull market is not without pullbacks and this one was due. That is not, however, what caused the panic selling that has taken place. The overreaction was caused by another series of margin hikes, this time in the Chinese gold markets. Margins were raised to 12% starting this Friday. Rewind a few months and remember what CME did to silver with a series of margin hikes. The obvious fear is that margin hike fever will again spread back to US markets and CME will get back into the act – which they did – effective at close of business on 8/25/11.

However, what investors found on Bloomberg was an assortment of invectives against gold, how ‘stability’ in the global financial system – aka we haven’t had a crisis yet this week – and a strong US manufacturing report all contributed to the rout. Let’s take a look at some quotes from today’s ‘wall of shame’ article, which can be found by clicking the link. Bloomberg has a habit of updating and revising articles and as such I have saved the original version in PDF format for later reference if necessary.

“This is liquidation from a crowded trade,” (name redacted), a senior market strategist at MF Global Holdings Ltd. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “In the short run, there’s more optimism and that doesn’t bode well for gold. Investors have been using gold more as a fear barometer than a proxy for inflation.”

Obviously senior market strategists aren’t required to know even the most basic workings of the market that they claim to have expert knowledge of. Certainly the latter half of this statement has some truth to it, but why no mention of the margin hikes? If this guy did mention it and it wasn’t printed, he’s got a good reason to be hopping mad about it, because the omission makes him look incredibly incompetent.

“This is just pure panic selling” (name redacted), the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Before today, gold’s 14-day relative strength had been above 70 since Aug. 8, a signal to technical traders that prices are poised to fall.

Again, there is a nugget of truth here; there has been near panic selling, but again, no mention of the margin hikes. The comments allude to the fact that the decline is based on technical factors alone.

“Gold got pushed up on the idea that Bernanke will announce further quantitative easing,” (name redacted), a commodity market specialist at Scotia Capital, said in a telephone interview. “Now people are not so sure whether that will happen and that is creating disappointment in the gold market.”

Funny, Big Ben slammed the door several times on the idea of further overt QE, albeit leaving it open on other occasions, yet gold has rallied anyway despite the general inconsistency of his comments and an unclear picture of how much more the central bank is willing to bury the dollar in the short term. The Jackson Hole meeting this week might provide some clarity in that regard, but odds are probably even that we’ll know about as much then about monetization plans moving forward as we know now.

To Bloomberg’s minor credit, there was one ‘contrarian’ viewpoint printed at the very end of the article, but long after the central point of the piece had been well established:

The decline may be a buying opportunity to some investors, said
(name redacted), who manages $200 million at TEAM Financial Management in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. 
“A lot of traders and investors who are long-term bullish on gold sold out hoping for a correction because of how much it went up,” said (name redacted). “The drivers remain intact. The toughest thing to do is stay invested during the various parabolas and sit through the corrections.”

Again, through the entire piece, there was not a single mention of the Shanghai Gold Market’s margin hikes, which will take effect this Friday. I guess it is possible that Bloomberg journalists might not know about this supposed subtlety in the gold market, but they talked to a minimum of 4 market ‘experts’ and I simply refuse to believe that none of these folks knew about this. It would appear that this is nothing more than another thinly veiled attempt to shuck and jive the public into thinking that gold is not a viable alternative to eroding paper currencies and a safe haven from foolish monetary and fiscal policies that span the globe.

Getting away from the media bias for a second, there are some obvious reasons why the paper establishment would like to knock down gold prices. First, the establishment has been playing a losing game for a decade now, putting up battles at critical junctures until market pressures forced prices higher. This has been going on for more than ten years now. The argument regarding speculators is really getting tired and worn out. It is very likely that another round of public easing is about to take place (the covert easing never stopped by the way) and the central banks of the world would certainly prefer that gold launch from $1,750 as opposed to $1,950, for example. And finally, central banks, hedge funds, and all those people who bash gold love the actual metal and bought more of it in the first half of this year than they bought during all of 2010. They’d like more and if they can use paper charades to knock down the price of physical so they can accumulate, then that is exactly what they will do. The Chinese would certainly like more ounces for their flagging dollar reserves that they desperately want no part of.

So we have folks with means, motive, and opportunity. You might think the news is all bad. It isn’t. I talk to many people who complain that gold has gotten too expensive, which has hampered their ability to accumulate. Guess what? It just went on sale. What we don’t know is what the final discount will be or how long the sale will last. You again have an opportunity to trade in the ultimate wasting asset – the US dollar – for real money and get more ounces for your paper. Not a single fundamental has changed. So there hasn’t been a crisis in Europe this week. So what? Nothing has been fixed there – or here. So, Bloomberg and its shenanigans notwithstanding, today’s action is positive for buyers of physical precious metals and adds another chapter what I dubbed back in 2008 as the opportunity of a lifetime.

Consumer Confidence Hits Multi-Decade Low

(Reuters) – Consumer confidence has fallen further after weeks of intensified economic concerns and broad stock market declines, and Conference Board data due later this month could be even weaker than current projections suggest, Consumer Edge Research said on Monday.

Readings from high, middle and low-income consumers all deteriorated sharply, due mainly to dramatic declines in outlook, the independent equity research firm said.

The firm’s Consumer Economic Index is now at 45.4, down 10 percentage points from July and down 1.5 points from the 46.9 level it reported on August 10. Two days after that report, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary August reading showed that U.S. consumer sentiment had fallen to its lowest point since May 1980.

The 45.4 reading is the lowest since Consumer Edge Research began its index in March 2010.

Consumer Edge Research forecast that the Conference Board’s full-month Consumer Confidence Index would deteriorate 8 to 10 percentage points from an unadjusted 59.5 in July when its report is issued on August 30.

As of Friday, consensus was calling for a 2.5 percentage point decline, “so we believe there is downside risk to current expectations,” Consumer Edge Research said.

While low-income and middle-income consumers felt the most impact from July to August, high-income earners have deteriorated the most since the peak seen in February, Consumer Edge Research said.

Compared with July, the confidence level for low-income consumers, those with incomes under $40,000, declined 10 percentage points; middle-income consumers with incomes from $40,000 to $100,000 had an 11 percentage-point drop; and high-income consumers, those making more than $100,000, had a 7 percentage points drop.

Business owners are also feeling more stressed. The roughly 5 percent of consumers who own businesses with at least one employee had an index of 63, the lowest point since the firm began calculating the index for that particular group in February.

Consumer Edge noted that it has less conviction in its Conference Board forecast and now feels its own index more accurately reflects “true underlying consumer sentiment.”

In February, economists noted that a change in Conference Board’s survey data provider prompted revisions back to November 2010. Since that change, the link between that index and Consumer Edge Research’s index has deteriorated, the firm noted.

Consumer Edge Research surveys at least 2,500 U.S. consumers online, generally during the first 18 to 23 days of the month.

Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion From Fed

 

 

 

 

 

 

Editor’s Note: We tried to tell people about this three years ago. Nobody wanted to believe that the housing ‘crisis’ and resulting credit mess was nothing more than a thinly veiled bank robbery. However, contrary to popular opinion, it wasn’t the federal reserve bank that got robbed; it was the American people. it continues to amaze us how people couldn’t care less. This lack of concern only guarantees that they’ll be back for another round.

Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.

By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. The largest borrower, Morgan Stanley (MS), got as much as $107.3 billion, while Citigroup took $99.5 billion and Bank of America $91.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress.

“These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.”

Foreign Borrowers

It wasn’t just American finance. Almost half of the Fed’s top 30 borrowers, measured by peak balances, were European firms. They included Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, which took $84.5 billion, the most of any non-U.S. lender, and Zurich-based UBS AG (UBSN), which got $77.2 billion. Germany’s Hypo Real Estate Holding AG borrowed $28.7 billion, an average of $21 million for each of its 1,366 employees.

The largest borrowers also included Dexia SA (DEXB), Belgium’s biggest bank by assets, and Societe Generale SA, based in Paris, whose bond-insurance prices have surged in the past month as investors speculated that the spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe might increase their chances of default.

The $1.2 trillion peak on Dec. 5, 2008 — the combined outstanding balance under the seven programs tallied by Bloomberg — was almost three times the size of the U.S. federal budget deficit that year and more than the total earnings of all federally insured banks in the U.S. for the decade through 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Peak Balance

The balance was more than 25 times the Fed’s pre-crisis lending peak of $46 billion on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon. Denominated in $1 bills, the $1.2 trillion would fill 539 Olympic-size swimming pools.

The Fed has said it had “no credit losses” on any of the emergency programs, and a report by Federal Reserve Bank of New York staffers in February said the central bank netted $13 billion in interest and fee income from the programs from August 2007 through December 2009.

“We designed our broad-based emergency programs to both effectively stem the crisis and minimize the financial risks to the U.S. taxpayer,” said James Clouse, deputy director of the Fed’s division of monetary affairs in Washington. “Nearly all of our emergency-lending programs have been closed. We have incurred no losses and expect no losses.”

While the 18-month U.S. recession that ended in June 2009 after a 5.1 percent contraction in gross domestic product was nowhere near the four-year, 27 percent decline between August 1929 and March 1933, banks and the economy remain stressed.

Odds of Recession

The odds of another recession have climbed during the past six months, according to five of nine economists on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, an academic panel that dates recessions.

Bank of America’s bond-insurance prices last week surged to a rate of $342,040 a year for coverage on $10 million of debt, above whereLehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ)’s bond insurance was priced at the start of the week before the firm collapsed. Citigroup’s shares are trading below the split-adjusted price of $28 that they hit on the day the bank’s Fed loans peaked in January 2009. The U.S. unemployment rate was at 9.1 percent in July, compared with 4.7 percent in November 2007, before the recession began.

Homeowners are more than 30 days past due on their mortgage payments on 4.38 million properties in the U.S., and 2.16 million more properties are in foreclosure, representing a combined $1.27 trillion of unpaid principal, estimates Jacksonville, Florida-based Lender Processing Services Inc.

Liquidity Requirements

“Why in hell does the Federal Reserve seem to be able to find the way to help these entities that are gigantic?” U.S. Representative Walter B. Jones, a Republican from North Carolina, said at a June 1 congressional hearing in Washington on Fed lending disclosure. “They get help when the average businessperson down in eastern North Carolina, and probably across America, they can’t even go to a bank they’ve been banking with for 15 or 20 years and get a loan.”

The sheer size of the Fed loans bolsters the case for minimum liquidity requirements that global regulators last year agreed to impose on banks for the first time, said Litan, now a vice president at the Kansas City, Missouri-based Kauffman Foundation, which supports entrepreneurship research. Liquidity refers to the daily funds a bank needs to operate, including cash to cover depositor withdrawals.

The rules, which mandate that banks keep enough cash and easily liquidated assets on hand to survive a 30-day crisis, don’t take effect until 2015. Another proposed requirement for lenders to keep “stable funding” for a one-year horizon was postponed until at least 2018 after banks showed they’d have to raise as much as $6 trillion in new long-term debt to comply.

‘Stark Illustration’

Regulators are “not going to go far enough to prevent this from happening again,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at theInternational Monetary Fund and now an economics professor at Harvard University.

Reforms undertaken since the crisis might not insulate U.S. markets and financial institutions from the sovereign budget and debt crises facing Greece, Ireland and Portugal, according to the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council, a 10-member body created by the Dodd-Frank Act and led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

“The recent financial crisis provides a stark illustration of how quickly confidence can erode and financial contagion can spread,” the council said in its July 26 report.

Any new rescues by the U.S. central bank would be governed by transparency laws adopted in 2010 that require the Fed to disclose borrowers after two years.

21,000 Transactions

Fed officials argued for more than two years that releasing the identities of borrowers and the terms of their loans would stigmatize banks, damaging stock prices or leading to depositor runs. A group of the biggest commercial banks last year asked the U.S. Supreme Court to keep at least some Fed borrowings secret. In March, the high court declined to hear that appeal, and the central bank made an unprecedented release of records.

Data gleaned from 29,346 pages of documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and from other Fed databases of more than 21,000 transactions make clear for the first time how deeply the world’s largest banks depended on the U.S. central bank to stave off cash shortfalls. Even as the firms asserted in news releases or earnings calls that they had ample cash, they drew Fed funding in secret, avoiding the stigma of weakness.

Morgan Stanley Borrowing

Two weeks after Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008, Morgan Stanley countered concerns that it might be next to go by announcing it had “strong capital and liquidity positions.” The statement, in a Sept. 29, 2008, press release about a $9 billion investment from Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., said nothing about Morgan Stanley’s Fed loans.

That was the same day as the firm’s $107.3 billion peak in borrowing from the central bank, which was the source of almost all of Morgan Stanley’s available cash, according to the lending data and documents released more than two years later by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The amount was almost three times the company’s total profits over the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Mark Lake, a spokesman for New York-based Morgan Stanley, said the crisis caused the industry to “fundamentally re- evaluate” the way it manages its cash.

“We have taken the lessons we learned from that period and applied them to our liquidity-management program to protect both our franchise and our clients going forward,” Lake said. He declined to say what changes the bank had made.

Acceptable Collateral

In most cases, the Fed demanded collateral for its loans — Treasuries or corporate bonds and mortgage bonds that could be seized and sold if the money wasn’t repaid. That meant the central bank’s main risk was that collateral pledged by banks that collapsed would be worth less than the amount borrowed.

As the crisis deepened, the Fed relaxed its standards for acceptable collateral. Typically, the central bank accepts only bonds with the highest credit grades, such as U.S. Treasuries. By late 2008, it was accepting “junk” bonds, those rated below investment grade. It even took stocks, which are first to get wiped out in a liquidation.

Morgan Stanley borrowed $61.3 billion from one Fed program in September 2008, pledging a total of $66.5 billion of collateral, according to Fed documents. Securities pledged included $21.5 billion of stocks, $6.68 billion of bonds with a junk credit rating and $19.5 billion of assets with an “unknown rating,” according to the documents. About 25 percent of the collateral was foreign-denominated.

‘Willingness to Lend’

“What you’re looking at is a willingness to lend against just about anything,” said Robert Eisenbeis, a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and now chief monetary economist in Atlanta for Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors Inc.

The lack of private-market alternatives for lending shows how skeptical trading partners and depositors were about the value of the banks’ capital and collateral, Eisenbeis said.

“The markets were just plain shut,” said Tanya Azarchs, former head of bank research at Standard & Poor’s and now an independent consultant in Briarcliff Manor, New York. “If you needed liquidity, there was only one place to go.”

Even banks that survived the crisis without government capital injections tapped the Fed through programs that promised confidentiality. London-based Barclays Plc (BARC) borrowed $64.9 billion and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) got $66 billion. Sarah MacDonald, a spokeswoman for Barclays, and John Gallagher, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment.

Below-Market Rates

While the Fed’s last-resort lending programs generally charge above-market interest rates to deter routine borrowing, that practice sometimes flipped during the crisis. On Oct. 20, 2008, for example, the central bank agreed to make $113.3 billion of 28-day loans through its Term Auction Facility at a rate of 1.1 percent, according to a press release at the time.

The rate was less than a third of the 3.8 percent that banks were charging each other to make one-month loans on that day. Bank of America and Wachovia Corp. each got $15 billion of the 1.1 percent TAF loans, followed by Royal Bank of Scotland’s RBS Citizens NA unit with $10 billion, Fed data show.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the New York-based lender that touted its “fortress balance sheet” at least 16 times in press releases and conference calls from October 2007 through February 2010, took as much as $48 billion in February 2009 from TAF. The facility, set up in December 2007, was a temporary alternative to the discount window, the central bank’s 97-year-old primary lending program to help banks in a cash squeeze.

‘Larger Than TARP’

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), which in 2007 was the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, borrowed $69 billion from the Fed on Dec. 31, 2008. Among the programs New York-based Goldman Sachs tapped after the Lehman bankruptcy was the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, or PDCF, designed to lend money to brokerage firms ineligible for the Fed’s bank-lending programs.

Michael Duvally, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs, declined to comment.

The Fed’s liquidity lifelines may increase the chances that banks engage in excessive risk-taking with borrowed money, Rogoff said. Such a phenomenon, known as moral hazard, occurs if banks assume the Fed will be there when they need it, he said. The size of bank borrowings “certainly shows the Fed bailout was in many ways much larger than TARP,” Rogoff said.

TARP is the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, a $700 billion bank-bailout fund that provided capital injections of $45 billion each to Citigroup and Bank of America, and $10 billion to Morgan Stanley. Because most of the Treasury’s investments were made in the form of preferred stock, they were considered riskier than the Fed’s loans, a type of senior debt.

Dodd-Frank Requirement

In December, in response to the Dodd-Frank Act, the Fed released 18 databases detailing its temporary emergency-lending programs.

Congress required the disclosure after the Fed rejected requests in 2008 from the late Bloomberg News reporter Mark Pittman and other media companies that sought details of its loans under the Freedom of Information Act. After fighting to keep the data secret, the central bank released unprecedented information about its discount window and other programs under court order in March 2011.

Bloomberg News combined Fed databases made available in December and July with the discount-window records released in March to produce daily totals for banks across all the programs, including the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, Commercial Paper Funding Facility, discount window, PDCF, TAF, Term Securities Lending Facility and single-tranche open market operations. The programs supplied loans from August 2007 through April 2010.

Rolling Crisis

The result is a timeline illustrating how the credit crisis rolled from one bank to another as financial contagion spread.

Fed borrowings by Societe Generale (GLE), France’s second-biggest bank, peaked at $17.4 billion in May 2008, four months after the Paris-based lender announced a record 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) loss on unauthorized stock-index futures bets by former trader Jerome Kerviel.

Morgan Stanley’s top borrowing came four months later, after Lehman’s bankruptcy. Citigroup crested in January 2009, as did 43 other banks, the largest number of peak borrowings for any month during the crisis. Bank of America’s heaviest borrowings came two months after that.

Sixteen banks, including Plano, Texas-based Beal Financial Corp. and Jacksonville, Florida-based EverBank Financial Corp., didn’t hit their peaks until February or March 2010.

“At no point was there a material risk to the Fed or the taxpayer, as the loan required collateralization,” said Reshma Fernandes, a spokeswoman for EverBank, which borrowed as much as $250 million.

Using Subsidiaries

Banks maximized their borrowings by using subsidiaries to tap Fed programs at the same time. In March 2009, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America drew $78 billion from one facility through two banking units and $11.8 billion more from two other programs through its broker-dealer, Bank of America Securities LLC.

Banks also shifted balances among Fed programs. Many preferred the TAF because it carried less of the stigma associated with the discount window, often seen as the last resort for lenders in distress, according to a January 2011 paper by researchers at the New York Fed.

After the Lehman bankruptcy, hedge funds began pulling their cash out of Morgan Stanley, fearing it might be the next to collapse, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission said in a January report, citing interviews with former Chief Executive Officer John Mack and then-Treasurer David Wong.

Borrowings Surge

Morgan Stanley’s borrowings from the PDCF surged to $61.3 billion on Sept. 29 from zero on Sept. 14. At the same time, its loans from the Term Securities Lending Facility, or TSLF, rose to $36 billion from $3.5 billion. Morgan Stanley treasury reports released by the FCIC show the firm had $99.8 billion of liquidity on Sept. 29, a figure that included Fed borrowings.

“The cash flow was all drying up,” said Roger Lister, a former Fed economist who’s now head of financial-institutions coverage at credit-rating firm DBRS Inc. in New York. “Did they have enough resources to cope with it? The answer would be yes, but they needed the Fed.”

While Morgan Stanley’s Fed demands were the most acute, Citigroup was the most chronic borrower among the largest U.S. banks. The New York-based company borrowed $10 million from the TAF on the program’s first day in December 2007 and had more than $25 billion outstanding under all programs by May 2008, according to Bloomberg data. By Nov. 21, when Citigroup began talks with the government to get a $20 billion capital injection on top of the $25 billion received a month earlier, its Fed borrowings had doubled to about $50 billion.

Tapping Six Programs

Over the next two months the amount almost doubled again. On Jan. 20, as the stock sank below $3 for the first time in 16 years amid investor concerns that the lender’s capital cushion might be inadequate, Citigroup was tapping six Fed programs at once. Its total borrowings amounted to more than twice the federal Department of Education’s 2011 budget.

Citigroup was in debt to the Fed on seven out of every 10 days from August 2007 through April 2010, the most frequent U.S. borrower among the 100 biggest publicly traded firms by pre- crisis market valuation. On average, the bank had a daily balance at the Fed of almost $20 billion.

“Citibank basically was sustained by the Fed for a very long time,” said Richard Herring, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia who has studied financial crises.

Jon Diat, a Citigroup spokesman, said the bank made use of programs that “achieved the goal of instilling confidence in the markets.”

‘Help Motivate Others’

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a letter to shareholders last year that his bank avoided many government programs. It did use TAF, Dimon said in the letter, “but this was done at the request of the Federal Reserve to help motivate others to use the system.”

The bank, the second-largest in the U.S. by assets, first tapped the TAF in May 2008, six months after the program debuted, and then zeroed out its borrowings in September 2008. The next month, it started using TAF again.

On Feb. 26, 2009, more than a year after TAF’s creation, JPMorgan’s borrowings under the program climbed to $48 billion. On that day, the overall TAF balance for all banks hit its peak, $493.2 billion. Two weeks later, the figure began declining.

“Our prior comment is accurate,” said Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for JPMorgan.

‘The Cheapest Source’

Herring, the University of Pennsylvania professor, said some banks may have used the program to maximize profits by borrowing “from the cheapest source, because this was supposed to be secret and never revealed.”

Whether banks needed the Fed’s money for survival or used it because it offered advantageous rates, the central bank’s lender-of-last-resort role amounts to a free insurance policy for banks guaranteeing the arrival of funds in a disaster, Herring said.

An IMF report last October said regulators should consider charging banks for the right to access central bank funds.

“The extent of official intervention is clear evidence that systemic liquidity risks were under-recognized and mispriced by both the private and public sectors,” the IMF said in a separate report in April.

Access to Fed backup support “leads you to subject yourself to greater risks,” Herring said. “If it’s not there, you’re not going to take the risks that would put you in trouble and require you to have access to that kind of funding.”

August Centsible Investor Available

The July-August period was very profitable for the model portfolio. Three of the four segments saw substantial gains, and the total gain for the portfolio jumped over 3.5% in the past 30 days. Much of this was due increases in precious metals prices as well as tactical hedging that we put in place on 7/27/11. That hedge nearly doubled in value as markets caved after the debt deal and credit downgrade.

This month’s keynote focuses on resetting our thinking after the latest blowout. Some very important big picture changes took place in the past month and we outline those and what the effects are likely to be moving forward. Despite the past 3 days of victories in the equity markets, make no mistake this is nowhere near over.

In energy, we dovetail the recent move to effectively double the fuel standard with the constant insistence by energy market ‘insiders’ and government types that we’re literally drowning in oil. Something isn’t right here and we tear these arguments apart.

In metals, we look at gold’s proxy performance for the stability of the financial system now vs. 2008 and we demonstrate why what just happened in the markets was nothing like 2008 despite the media’s persistent rhetoric to the contrary. We also discuss the economic ‘kill-switch’ built into the debt deal and the economic equivalent of a commercial signal failure. If you want to know the intricacies of how everything is bolted together, this is information you don’t want to miss.

In the market update, we show our long-term analysis from May 2009. It was right on target and has developed precisely as outlined over two years ago. This has big implications for anyone holding paper assets and needs to be part of everyone’s decision-making process.

This is probably the most important issue of CI that we’ve ever released. If you’re a subscriber or client, take some time and seriously digest its contents. If you’re on the fence, consider becoming a subscriber. We realize times are tough and as such have lowered prices to reflect the troubles people are having financially. This is much more than just a stock-picking newsletter; much of our research pertains to the general economy and how those developments affect consumers at a variety of levels. If you find our work beneficial, please refer us to a friend or colleague; it is how we are able to continue providing this analysis.

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S&P Downgrades USGovt Credit Rating

Published on: 08/05/2011
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

Standard & Poor’s announced Friday night that it has downgraded the United States credit rating for the first time, dealing a huge symbolic blow to the world’s economic superpower in what was a sharply worded critique of the American political system.

Lowering the nation’s rating one-notch below AAA, the credit rating company said “political brinkmanship” in the debate over the debt had made the U.S. government’s ability to manage its finances “less stable, less effective and less predictable.” It said the bi-partisan agreement reached this week to find $2.1 trillion in budget savings “fell short” of what was necessary to tame the nation’s debt over time and predicted that leaders would have no luck achieving more savings later on.

The decision came after a day of furious back-and-forth between the Obama administration and S&P. Government officials fought back hard, arguing that S&P made a flawed analysis of the potential for political agreement and had mathematical errors in its initial analysis, which was submitted to the Treasury earlier in the day. The analysis overstated the U.S. deficit over 10 years by $2 trillion.

“A judgment flawed by a $2 trillion error speaks for itself,” a Treasury spokesperson said Friday.

The downgrade will push the global financial markets into unchartered territory after a volatile week fueled by concerns over the European debt crisis and the slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Analysts say that, over time, the downgrade is likely to push up borrowing costs for the U.S. government, costing taxpayers tens of billions of dollars a year. It could also drive up costs for borrowing for consumers and companies seeking mortgages, credit cards and business loans.

A downgrade could also have a cascading series of effects on states and localities, including nearly all of those in the Washington metro area. These governments could lose their AAA credit ratings as well, potentially raising the cost of borrowing for schools, roads and parks.

But the exact impact of the downgrade won’t be known until at least Sunday night, when Asian markets open, and perhaps not fully grasped for months. Analysts say the impact on the markets may be modest because they have been anticipating an S&P downgrade for weeks.

Federal officials are also examining the impact of a downgrade in large but esoteric financial markets where U.S. government bonds serve an extremely important function. They were generally confident that markets would hold up, but were closely monitoring the situation.

S&P’s action is the most tangible vote of disapproval so far by Wall Street on the deal between President Obama and Congress to cut the deficit by at least $2.1 trillion over 10 years. S&P has said that it wanted at least $4 trillion of deficit reduction.

The downgrade is likely to be used as a weapon by both Republicans and Democrats as they argue the other side has not taken deficit reduction seriously.

Other credit rating agencies — Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings — have decided not to downgrade the United States credit rating. But they’ve warned that, if the economy deteriorates significantly or the government does not take additional steps to tame the debt, they could move to downgrade too.

In April, S&P first said it might downgrade the United States credit rating on concerns that lawmakers would not be able to come to a deal on reducing the debt. In July, as efforts stagnated, S&P said the odds of a downgrade within three months had moved up to 50 percent.

The ultimate deal between Obama and Congress ultimately failed S&P’s benchmark. Obama administration officials have been critical of S&P for making what was essentially a political judgment and for failing to conclude that the country was making a strong first step to reducing its deficit.

BNY/Mellon to Charge Customers for ‘Sitting in Cash’

 

Editor’s Note: This is disgusting. Anyone who has dealings with this outfit shoudl cease those dealings at once, hopefully forcing this brazen bank into insolvency and eventually out of existence. Of course they’d want a bailout first..  

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. on Thursday took the extraordinary step of telling large clients it will charge them to hold cash.

Bank of New York Mellon is preparing to charge some large depositors to hold their cash, in the latest sign of the worries roiling global markets. Liz Rappaport has details.

The unusual move means some U.S. depositors will have to pay to keep big chunks of money in a bank, marking a stark new phase of the long-running global financial crisis.

The shift is also emblematic of the strains plaguing the U.S. economy. Fearful corporations and investors have been socking away cash in their bank accounts rather than put it into even the safest investments.

The giant bank, which specializes in handling funds for financial institutions and corporations, will begin assessing a fee next week on customers that have been flooding the bank with dollars, Bank of New York told clients in a note reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The decision won’t affect individual savers, who already are stuck with near zero interest rates as the Federal Reserve keeps rates low to support a soft economy. But it is a glaring sign that corporate executives, bank leaders and money-market fund managers are fleeing from risk and hoarding cash as the recovery threatens to peter out.

A Bank of New York Mellon spokesman said, “the vast majority of clients will not be affected by the proposed fee.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 512.76 points Thursday. The one-month Treasury bill traded at a negative yield for the first time since June—signaling that investors are so worried that they are prepared to pay the government to take their money.

The letter said Bank of New York finds its deposits “suddenly and substantially increasing” as investors are in a mass “de-risk” mode. The bank said the decision was driven by the fact that it cannot invest much of the new deposits because clients have the ability to move the funds out at any moment.

The ultra-low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve in an effort to stimulate the anemic recovery have also neutered banks’ ability to reap profits from investing their deposits.

In times of crisis, the Markets Hub roundtable discusses where investors can look to for the last few safe havens and whether the answer lies in gold, emerging technology, treasuries or healthcare. (Photo: AP Photo.)

“I’m not surprised BONY is charging,” said Sheila Bair, who left as chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. last month and is now at the Pew Charitable Trusts. “The deposits are transient and given continued economic weakness, there is not a lot it can do with them.”

While other banks haven’t followed Bank of New York in charging depositors, some analysts speculated that rivals might follow suit.

Some corporate executives, meanwhile, took a dim view of the new fee.

“If it’s true, I think it’s atrocious,” Gary Cox, chief financial officer of Champions Life Insurance Co. in Richardson, Texas, told CFO Journal, a news service of The Wall Street Journal. Champions, which has $150 million in assets, has bank accounts with three local Texas firms and J.P. Morgan Chase.

Such a move, he said, “would encourage us to find another bank.”

A spokesman for J.P. Morgan Chase said it has not imposed similar fees.

Over the past two weeks, money-market funds, corporate treasurers and investment houses have pulled money out of securities that mature in more than one day in favor of stashing their cash in bank accounts at Bank of New York and other banks with custodial operations. The accounts don’t earn interest, but have a big attraction: They are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The fastest-growing asset on bank balance sheets this year is cash. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. bank holdings of cash are up 83%, or $890 billion, to $1.98 trillion. Consumer loans, by contrast, have grown 0.2%, or $1.7 billion. Commercial and industrial loans are up 3.8%, or $46.1 billion.

Bank of New York said that customers that have deposited more than $50 million into their accounts since the end of July will face an annual fee of at least 0.13% of the excess deposits. The fee would rise if the one-month Treasury yield dips below zero, according to the letter sent to customers.

0804bny

Getty ImagesBank of New York Mellon is preparing to charge some large depositors to hold their cash.

The bank had $162.5 billion in deposits as of March 31.

Holding cash comes at a cost to banks. Bank of New York and others pay fees of about 0.10% to the FDIC to insure their deposits, said people familiar with the matter.

Given the size of recent deposits and the flows in and out of money-market funds, the charges could run into the millions of dollars.

Huge deposit flows pose another problem for banks: They force banks to hold increasing amounts of capital, which they are loath to do because doing so depresses profits—which are already under pressure with a slow economy and rising regulatory demands.

One place banks have turned to put their cash is the Federal Reserve. Since late 2008 it has been paying 0.25% interest on funds banks hold with in reserve with the Fed.

However, banks and economists have speculated that one of the Fed’s options is to reduce or even eliminate that interest payment, hoping to push banks to invest their deposits in the private sector.

The Fed has worried that removing the payment would hurt vulnerable parts of the financial system—namely money-market funds, which would struggle to make profits in a world where interest rates are almost zero.

But with the economy weakening, the Fed is considering all sorts of ways to promote spending, investment and growth.

While financial institutions haven’t rushed to impose commissions, other countries have used negative interest rates to stem a torrent of incoming funds. In 2009, Sweden cut its benchmark interest rate below zero, and in the late 1970s Switzerland’s central bank imposed negative interest rates to slow capital inflows that were driving up the value of the Swiss franc.

Europe on Brink of ‘Major Financial Collapse’ – Guggenheim CIO

Europe is a “train wreck” and on the “brink of a major financial crisis,” Scott Minerd, CIO of the fixed-income firm Guggenheim Partners, told CNBC Tuesday.

The way Europe is operating right now, it’s what I called recently ‘cognitive dissonance,’” Minerd said, or “basically doing the same thing thinking they’re going to get a different outcome.”

“They keep throwing more and more liquidity at it thinking it’s going to get better and it’s not,” he added. Europe fails to recognize that it has a “structural problem, not a liquidity problem.”

People will “flee the euro” unless they find a way to bifurcate the euro in some way where strong countries are in the euro only and the weak countries are out, Minerd explained, adding, “To be honest with you, I don’t see the mechanism to do that.”

“As the capital is flooding out of Europe, which we’re starting to see now, the first place it’s going to go is to the safe havens—[U.S.] Treasurys, which [the market] perceives to be safe, and it’ll chase gold,” he added.

Compared to a 2 percent return on Treasury notes, investors will eventually say that “stocks with price-earnings multiples of 12 or 13 or 14 look relatively cheap, and the growth for corporate earnings in the United States is very good, and this is likely to help us,” said Minerd.

The United States is “the least dirty shirt in the bag,” Minerd concluded. “We have a very good chance of seeing equitiesup maybe another 10 percent [over the next six months] from where we are.”

 

Silent Run on Greek Banks

In one of the biggest banks in the centre of Athens a clerk is explaining how his savers have been thronging to pull out their cash.

Wary of giving his name, he glances around the marble-floored, wood-panelled foyer before pulling out a slim A4-sized folder. It is about the size of a small safety-deposit box – and those, ever since the financial crisis hit Greece 18 months ago, have become the most sought-after financial products in the country. Worried about whether the banks will stay in business, Greeks have been taking their life savings out of accounts and sticking them in metal slits in basement vaults.

The boxes are so popular that the bank has doubled the rent on them in the past year – and still every day between five and 10 customers request one. This bank ran out of spares months ago. The clerk leans over: “I’ve been working in a bank for 31 years, and I’ve never seen a panic like this.”

Official figures back him up. In May alone, almost €5bn (£4.4bn) was pulled out of Greek deposits, as part of what analysts describe as a “silent bank run”. This version is also disorderly and jittery, just not as obvious. Customers do not form long queues outside branches, they simply squirrel out as much as they can. Some of that money will have been used to pay debts or supplement incomes, of course, but bankers put the sheer volume of withdrawals down to a general fear about the outlook for Greece, one that runs all the way from the humble rainy-day saver to the really big money.

‘Clueless’ government

“Every time the markets move, I get phone calls,” says an Athens-based fund manager. “They’re from investors asking: ‘How can I get my money out of the country?’ ”

One senior investment banker is more blunt: “People are scared that the government doesn’t know what the fuck it’s doing.” He tells a story about an acquaintance who took out €30,000, wrapped it in a bag and stashed it in his garage. “The bag had previously had some food inside,” he says. “So it attracted rats, who ate the notes.”

Bags of money in garages, frightened savers fleeing banks and even the country: these aren’t the sort of stories you associate with a comparatively-prosperous European country, but with a developing one facing a life-or-death economic crash. The fact that they are now emerging from Greece not only indicates the scale of financial distress, it suggests something else: Greece today looks like parts of Latin America in the worst moments of its financial crisis.

In an echo of the days of Jim Callaghan, the International Monetary Fund is back inEurope, doing what it is more accustomed to doing in Buenos Aires or Brasilia: making emergency loans and telling the government how to run its economy. What is more, the scale of the changes an overborrowed Athens is now making are so vast and so rapid that they will leave Greece looking like a different country.

The government itself describes its plan to slash public spending and jack up taxes as one of the most ambitious deficit-reduction programmes in the world. But what often goes missing from this discussion of a fiscal crash-landing is the impact on the lives of citizens who have precious little time to adjust. When salaries of civil servants are slashed by up to 30% within a few months, as happened last year, and over 20% of public-sector workers face unemployment within the next four years – plus whole swathes of national assets are to be privatised before Christmas, with more job losses doubtless to follow – then you are talking about a wholesale transformation of a workforce.

Greece is already one of the poorest and most unequal societies in Europe, reckons Christos Papatheodorou at the Democritus University of Thrace. Among the few countries that look worse are Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia. So what will Greek society look like after the government’s austerity measures take effect? He pauses, then says: “It will probably look like a developing country.”

That message has not been lost on workers either: one of the new nouns used by trade union members and others who oppose the cuts is kinezopeisi, or China-isation. The claim is that such large drops in wages will lead to a workforce paid barely more than their counterparts in Shenzhen.

The oddest thing of all is that some of the leading lights in the government appear to see nothing wrong in a wholesale transformation of Greek society, albeit not into one that resembles an enterprise zone in eastern China. Elena Panaritis is widely tipped as one of the up and comers in Greece’s government, and it is not hard to see why: smart, formidably well-trained in economics after a career with the World Bank, funny and fluent in English, she is exactly the sort of person any prime minister would choose to give a keynote address to fretful institutional investors.

And for a Greek politician involved in pushing through some of the most abruptly painful economic measures in the country’s history, she does not seem especially Greek. When I observe how many Apple computers are in her office, she replies: “That’s because I’m not Greek, I’m American.” Her speech is American-accented and peppered with “darn” and “have a nice day”. When asked to describe how Greece needs to change its economy, her answer revolves around changing its institutions and its structures – in other words, making Greece less Greek. Castigating the bureaucracy, she says: “It’s not a kibbutz, it’s a big country!”

This is a line that you hear often enough from those who want Greece to change. By European standards, Greece has an average-sized public sector, but a very leaky tax collection system. What the public sector is, however, is under-resourced and inefficient. On my last day in the country, I wangle my way inside a public pensions office for those working in the tourism industry: there are just two Dell computers in one large room, and lever-arch files dating back 30 years. No one ever paid for the data to be computerised, I am told, and the result is that one day’s work takes three.

Private sector woes

The other big problem is in the private sector, with few industries that are able to pay their way in the world. Jason Manolopolous, who is author of a new book called Greece’s ‘Odious’ Debt, says that for years Greece was buying more from the rest of the world than it was selling. “We were buying BMWs from the Germans and selling them tomatoes.”

For now, those days are well and truly over. In Athens’ upmarket shopping district of Kolonaki, boutiques that used to have waiting lists for designer handbags have shut. One sign says the owners have relocated – to Rome. In one clothes shop, with racks of discounted Calvin Klein and DKNY, the manager, Sav, explains what’s happened: “In this crisis, the middle classes have been hollowed out.” That is just what happened in Buenos Aires during its crash last decade.

The result is that people who thought themselves used to one way of life, and in one social class, are getting used to a sharp downgrade.

In one factory, where a staff of 200 is now down to 30, the manager points to empty floors and idle machines. They’re now all on unemployment benefit, he says. “Mind you, our pay has been cut too, so we’re not that far off.”

Outside the soup kitchen of the Aghia Triada church in Piraeus, near Athens, more of Greece’s new poor are waiting for a handout. Anna and her two daughters have walked in the midday sun to get here and are now queueing up with the long-term homeless.

That is not Anna’s situation though; she lost her job three years ago but has still hung on to her house. That said, she no longer has the income or the benefits to pay bills and the electricity was cut off last month.

Inside, Pater Daniel, the head priest, says that he’s noticed a lot more “well-dressed, clean” people taking free meals from the church. He reels off stories of a 23-year-old man who left last week for Australia, and a 40-year-old woman who lost her job on Friday.

Because the Greek Orthodox church is partly on the state payroll, the clergyman’s salary has fallen by almost 10% to €15,000 a year.

Is he saying that the Orthodox church is also subject to public spending cuts? Pater Daniel laughs, then holds up five fingers: there are five priests in Piraeus, and soon there will only be one. He’s pondering taking a second job.

“There is too much pain, and people are looking for someone to listen and squeeze their hand.” He sighs. “Everyday I leave this church with a headache.”

Ineffective Stimulus – Part Infinity

Editor’s Note: Washington is wrapping up its latest three-ring circus of which the result is the continuation of the bald-faced lie that the government can prop up the economy with borrowed money. Despite the most massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in history, the USEconomy is dying on the vine. The current exercise was doomed to failure as we pointed out a half decade ago, because it is flawed in principle. Chances are very good that in another year or so when the $2.8T of additional debt headspace has been exhausted, we’ll be worse off than we are today, while owing another quarter of a year’s output to the international banking syndicate.

Manufacturing activity barely grew in July, falling to the weakest level since just after the recession ended.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said Monday that its index of manufacturing activity fell to 50.9 percent in July from 55.3 percent in June.

It was the 23rd straight month of growth. But the reading was the lowest reading since July 2009 — one month after the recession officially ended. Any level above 50 indicates growth.

New orders shrank for the first time since the recession ended. Companies slashed their inventories after building them up in June. Output, employment, and prices paid my manufacturers all grew more slowly in July.

The disappointing report on manufacturing is the first major report on how economy performed in July. It suggests the dismal economic growth in the first half of the year could extend into the July-September quarter.

“The ISM manufacturing report for July is a shocker and strongly suggests that the disappointing performance of the economy in the first half of the year was not just temporary,” said Paul Dales, a senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics.

Stocks fell after the report was released. They had risen ahead of the report on the expectation thatCongress will approve a deal Monday to increase the nation’s borrowing limit. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 60 points in early-morning trading, and broader indexes also declined.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said builders began work on more projects in June, pushing construction spending higher for a third straight month.

Construction spending rose 0.2 percent in June, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $772.3 billion, the government said. But even with the gains, spending remains slightly above an 11-year low hit in March and is just half of the $1.5 trillion pace considered healthy by most economists.

The economy expanded at a dismal 1.3 percent annual rate in the April-June period after an even worse 0.4 percent increase in the first three months of the year, the government said Friday.

The factory sector has expanded in every month but one since the recession ended in June 2009. The ISM’s index topped 60 for four straight months at the start of the year.

But manufacturing has stumbled in recent months. A parts shortage stemming from Japan’s March 11 earthquake disrupted automakers’ supply chains, cutting into the output of new cars. And high gas prices left Americans with less money to spend on discretionary items, such as vacations, furniture and appliances.

The index fell in May to 53.5 from April’s reading of 60.4. That was the sharpest one-month drop since 1984.

Employers have responded by pulling back on hiring. The economy added just 18,000 net jobs in June, the fewest in nine months, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent. Hiring by manufacturers was nearly flat in the April-June period.

The government issues its July employment report on Friday.

Several regional manufacturing surveys for the month of July have been mixed. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its manufacturing index rose to 3.2, signaling that the sector is growing again in that region. It had contracted in June for the first time in nine months.

And a private survey in Chicago showed that manufacturing expanded in July, but at a slower pace than in June.

Meanwhile, a survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank found regional manufacturing activity shrank in July.

Manufacturing represents only about 11 percent of U.S. economic activity and can contribute only so much to the broader economic recovery. For unemployment to fall significantly, consumer income and spending also must pick up.

The ISM, a trade group of purchasing executives based in Tempe, Ariz., compiles its manufacturing index by surveying about 300 purchasing executives across the country.

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