Tags: investing

The Great American Banking Experiment

One of the most common questions that folks who are becoming newly acquainted with terms like ‘fiat money’ and ‘fractional reserve banking’ are asking is “How did we get here?” For sure, the recent publicity of 21st Century Tea Parties along with the occurrence of the worst financial crisis in recorded history has people asking questions. In terms of the American obsession with central banking and fiat currency, 1913 is generally identified as the point where the country went wrong. In truth, however, our obsession with funny money has transcended all; including even, the birth of the nation. And on a global scale, the eternal ponzi scheme of fractional reserve banking has been going on for a few thousand years now. It is a scheme that has been so perfectly atrocious over the centuries that it makes ponzicons Stanford and Madoff look like petty thieves. In this week’s piece we’ll take a look at some of the more noteworthy landmarks in America’s great experiment with paper money.

Gresham’s Law

Gresham’s Law deals with a situation when there are two (or more) competing currencies and one is ‘pegged’ against the other. More specifically, the law deals with bimetallic currency systems where both Gold and Silver are used in an economy and the ratio of the two is fixed. A good historical reference would be the post Bank of North America United States in the early 1800s. The US Constitution in Article 1, Section 8 gave Congress the power to coin money and determine the value thereof. A Constitutional Dollar was determined to be a coin containing 371.25 grains of pure silver. In order to encourage the use of gold as well as Silver, the ratio was set at 15:1 – therefore a Constitutional Dollar could also be a Gold coin containing 24.75 grains of pure Gold. For anyone who knows Gold, 24.75 grains is not a very large coin so coins that contained 247.5 grains of Gold were used and were valued at 10 Dollars. So far, so good, right?

The only problem here is that the exchange ratio of any two goods will vary over time. When the 15:1 value was set, that was the going market rate. Alexander Hamilton, who was a big proponent of the bimetallic system, gets an “A” for effort, but failed to recognize and/or provide for the constant fluctuation. In the case of the Gold-Silver ratio, the supply of Silver grew disproportionately to that of Gold due in large part to mining in the Caribbean. The silver made it to our shores thanks to a vibrant trading relationship between America and that region of the world. This is where Gresham’s Law comes into play. The law states that anytime one money is compulsorily undervalued while another is overvalued, the undervalued money will be driven out of the economy or hoarded while the overvalued money will explode into circulation. In following Gresham’s Law, Gold all but disappeared from circulation in early 19th century America. With the obvious consequences of Gresham’s Law, it is easy to ask why any government would forcibly attempt to impose a bimetallic standard on an economy? Hint: It must be remembered that in absence of paper money, the supply of money in the economy was determined by the quantity of specie (Gold and/or Silver).

The monetary ‘authorities’ at the time were attempting to make sure that the economy had enough money to function properly, which was certainly a good intention. Where they went wrong in their approach is that the economy could have easily functioned on silver alone since it was in good supply. Market prices for other goods would have adjusted themselves through the laws of marginal utility and supply/demand according to the supply of both specie and the other goods.

Gresham’s Law is easily observed today in our own currency system with a slight variation. While the Dollar and Gold are allowed to adjust to a certain extent in terms of each other, it is easy to see how the undervalued money (Gold) has gone into hiding while the overvalued ‘money’ (Federal Reserve Notes) have flooded into circulation.

Early American Attempts at Fiat Paper Money

Perhaps ironically, America’s first attempts at fiat money began before Lexington and Concord. Before the French and Indian War. And even before the 18th century had seen the light of day. The first government issue of paper money came in 1690 in the colony of Massachusetts. It had become a custom there to embark on plundering missions into Quebec and then use the proceeds of the missions to pay off the soldiers upon return to the colony. In 1690, however, one such mission was unsuccessful so there were no spoils to distribute. In order to placate the soldiers, the colonial government attempted to borrow the required money from local merchants. However, these merchants had a rather dim view of the creditworthiness of the government and refused. In an ill-fated decision, the government of the Massachusetts colony then decided to issue paper notes with the promise of both redeemability and that the issuance was a one-time affair. They ended up being wrong on both counts.

These endeavors continued almost constantly up to and through the American Revolution with two predictable results: the notes issued always depreciated versus the competing specie money and the amount of paper notes issued got larger with each subsequent attempt. These comparisons are important to make when connecting early monetary ventures to what is going on today.

The “Continental”

Early in the American Revolution, the Continental Congress ran into the serious issue of funding and opted to look towards fiat money for the solution to the problem. Unlike some of the previous redeemable fiat ventures, the ‘Continental’ as it became known was not to be redeemable at all, but would rather be dismantled after the war ended by using taxes paid by the colonies. While this was a temporary solution, it carried the double whammy of inflation and taxation for the colonies. Certainly, sacrifices had to be made, but what is most interesting is what happened next. From 1775 through 1779, the supply of Continentals exploded by over 1800%. Predictably, the value of the Continental in specie (silver) had fallen to 42:1 from a beginning value of 1-1.25:1. By 1781, with the war still raging, the value of the Continental had fallen to a negligible 168:1. Comparatively speaking, today’s fiat dollar which traded with specie (gold) before the Great Depression at a rate of 20:1 now trades around 950:1 – a similar hyperinflation although over a much longer period of time.

The Supply of Continentals - 1775-1791

The next step taken by the colonial government was to impose price controls and attempt to dictate the market value of the failing currency. These efforts flouted several of the laws of economics, the first of which is that you cannot run an effective paper money system without confidence. The second is that price controls create shortages by artificially setting the market price below that of the equilibrium price as is illustrated in the chart below:

Effects of Price Controls

With the impending failure of the Continental in 1779, the Congress resigned itself to allow the Continental to depreciate unredeemed into worthlessness. However, and tragically, the Congress then resorted to issuing loan certificates for the purchase of goods and services from Colonial merchants and refusing to pay anything in else. Soon enough the certificates became used as a currency and, much like their brother the Continental, began to depreciate. Here’s the important part though. Instead of allowing the certificates to be redeemed at a depreciated value, they were carried into perpetuity and the permanent Federal debt was born. This unpaid bill is better known today as the National Debt.

The Bank of North America and Robert Morris

In 1781, Robert Morris introduced a bill that created both the first commercial bank and the first central bank. The resulting catastrophe, headed by Morris himself, opened in 1782 and quickly ran into problems. The first of these problems was our old friend confidence. Americans, already weary of paper notes due to decades of failures, inflation, and broken promises just couldn’t shake the perception that the new bank’s notes were being inflated compared to the still-existing specie. The bank, in an extraordinary move at the time actually went as far as to hire people to promote the new bank and its notes and to insist on redemption for specie. Obviously the idea here was to gain the confidence of the public by demonstrating that the notes were in fact worth something. Paradoxically, today’s Fed doesn’t even try to maintain an illusion of backing or intrinsic worth.

The Fed's precursor - The First Bank of the US

The First Bank of the US – 1791 (above)

This first experiment into central banking lasted barely a year as in early 1783 Morris moved to end the institution’s authority as a central bank and shifted its focus to commercial activities with a Pennsylvania charter. Although short, it was one of many important steps in the establishment of a central banking authority. Perhaps most importantly, the population grew more accustomed to using paper money. By the 20th century, specie was removed from circulation in totality while the ability to redeem still existed. Eventually, redeemability was suspended as well, leaving us with a paper currency with only implicit worth. In 1971, in a final blow to sound money, settlement of foreign debt in specie was suspended as well. What has transpired since has been a slower, but eerily similar version of the demise of the Continental.

In conclusion, there is absolutely nothing wrong with paper money in and of itself. It can actually serve a valuable purpose in that it is more portable, easily divisible, and in the case of the grain banks thousands of years ago, was much easier than moving bushels of wheat. However, the predilection of those charged with running these types of operations has been to coerce and conspire to rob the people of wealth through stealth. Whereas it would have been exceedingly problematic to confiscate a farmer’s grain without incurring his wrath, it was magnificently simple to inflate his wealth away through the over issuance of grain receipts. The parallels between these early experiments and what goes on today are astounding. We as a people still haven’t gotten our heads around the idea of inflation – the over issuance of fiat paper money – and the confiscation of wealth it represents. What could never be done through direct taxation has been done under another name, right under our very noses, and in plain sight.

Don’t miss out on your free copy of our report “The 7 Mistakes Investors make..and how to avoid them”. Get your copy today by going to our website www.sutton-associates.net and clicking the free report banner.

Sources:

“Man, Economy, and State” Rothbard, Murray N. Mises Institute.

“A History of Money and Banking in the United States” Rothbard, Murray N. Mises Institute.

Disclosures: Long GDX

Congress Deserves an Oscar for AIG 'outrage'

Politicians on Capitol Hill have done their very best to muster up an acceptable amount of rancor over the AIG bonus checks that went out last week. Ironically, the gang of 535 are more interested in getting back $165 million than finding out where the TRILLIONS in Federal Reserve ‘gifts’ to big banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions have gone.

There is no need for any of this political grandstanding. The US Government owns a near 80% stake in the failed insurance company and as such could simply retract the bonsuses through a shareholder action. There is no need for hand-wringing, negotiations, or incessant hearings on Capitol Hill.

Secondly, the chief of AIG insisted that “when you owe someone money, you pay it back” referring to the fact that these bonsuses were contractual agreements. However, the Congress has had no problem suggesting that bankruptcy judges modify subprime residential mortgages (which are also contracts), so the small matter of the $165 million shouldn’t be an issue from a contractual standpoint.

Perhaps most importantly, the AIG bonus situation is non-issue in comparative terms and is meant to absorb the public’s outrage while the vast majority of TARP and other Fed disbursements go unaccounted for. By my calculation, the $165 million is exactly .61% of the money that has been spent in the people’s name so far (that we know about) in dealing with the financial crisis.

The hystrionics of both political parties are a nice piece of acting, but should further establish that they are much more interested in protecting the status quo than the US taxpayer.

Citigroup gives profits to taxpayers

Don’t hold your breath on the headline; it is very unlikely to happen.

Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit said today that his company is now making money and having a great 2009 so far despite the fact that the firm’s stock dropped below $1/share last week. If this is truly the case – if the firm is actually making money - that money should immediately be refunded to US taxpayers. Why?  Because it is ours, tha’s why. Hundreds of billions have been shuffled the way of this zombie of all zombies on our behalf in a futile attempt o pick winners and losers in the ongoing financial crisis.

We will find out shortly enough if this morning’s assertions were actually true or if we have just witnessed yet another effort to pump another diluted and essentially worthless stock. My optimistic side hopes for the former, but common sense leans firmly towards the latter.

Who runs the Country?

By Fred Carach

In American history there have been two great defining elections. All other American elections are insignificant in comparison. The first great defining election was the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 that ushered in the great period of Republican Party dominance, which lasted from the civil war until the Great Depression. The second great defining election was the election of Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, which ushered in the great period of Democratic Party dominance.
This dominance has just been re certified by the recent election of President Obama.

After the historic election of 1932, the Democrats faced a shattered opposition. Just as they do today. The Democratic Party then dominated politics at every level of government. The overwhelming majority of all the mayors in the country were Democratic . The overwhelming majority of all the state legislatures were Democratic. The overwhelming majority of all the state governors were Democratic. Democrats dominated both houses of Congress and the president was a democrat. Nothing has changed in 77 years. Eight decades later the dominance of the Democratic Party at every level of government is almost as total as it was in 1932.
Nothing better demonstrated their strangle hold on political power than their absolute domination of the House of Representatives for 62 straight years from 1932 to 1994. Under our system, command of the house alone granted Democrats perpetual blocking power over all legislation.

What two party system are people talking about? The simple truth of the matter is that we do not have a two party system in this country and have not had one since 1932. What we have is a one and a half party system, which is pretending to be a two party system. The only level of government at which the Republican Party is competitive is the presidency. Remove that and there is nothing left.

The question that has to be asked is how has the press missed this? Are they really that stupid or are they just pretending to be that stupid? The truth of the matter is that I just do not know. Both presumptions seem equally plausible to me.

As for the Democrats, the Republicans serve a very useful purpose. They are the perpetual fall guy and whipping boy of the Democratic Party whenever things go wrong. Just ask yourself what would the Democrats do if it ever dawned on the people that the lion’s share of everything that has gone wrong in this country since 1932 was the fault of the Democratic Party? Things could get very ugly. Besides they like having the Republicans to kick around.

We now come to the vexing problem of the alleged power of the presidency to influence the economy. This idiotic belief is something that the Democrats have had a field day promoting ever since they rose to power in 1932 with their vicious attacks on President Hoover. Since their control of congress since 1932 has been almost perpetual and the presidency is the only branch of government in which the Republicans are competitive. There are enormous rewards for the Democrats in shifting the blame for economic hard times from congress where it belongs and in promoting the myth of presidential economic responsibility.

This domination not only extends to their control of the press but to popular beliefs as well.
Consider this, all my life I have wondered why the Hoover Dam was called the Hoover Dam
instead of the Roosevelt Dam. After all, we all know that after the stock market crash of 1929 President Hoover and the Republicans sat around in a stupor and did nothing while the country went to hell. Don’t we? Then the heroic Democrats took over and saved the country in the 1930s with their huge public works projects. The most massive of which was the Hoover Dam and the magnificent Golden Gate Bridge.

Recently, I was stunned to discover that the Hoover Dam and the Golden Gate Bridge and god only knows what other major public works projects of the 1930s were authorized not under Roosevelt which is what we all believe but under President Hoover!

How sweet it is! This is domination, total and complete.

When the Democratic Party took control of the country in 1932 their position was ideal. They had assumed power when the country was at rock bottom. Things could not possibly have gotten any worse. The stock market had lost 91% of its value and 5,000 banks had failed. The unemployment rate was at 24%. If they had done nothing for the rest of the decade except giggle stupidly at themselves the economy would have improved.

They instead embarked on the most advanced economic thinking of the day. Keynesian economic theory, which held that vast government public work programs was the solution to the depression. It should have worked but it didn’t.

I would have supported these programs. Just as I support public works programs for today’s recession.

The failure of these public works programs to end the depression is astonishing. The unemployment numbers are so bad that it is hard to believe them. In 1932 the unemployment rate was 23.6%. In 1933 it was 24.9%. In 1934 it was 21.7%. In 1935 it was 20.1%. In 1936 it was 16.9%. In 1937 it was 14.3%. In 1938 it was 19%. In 1939 it was 17.2%.

Then salvation came. It was the armaments production of World War Two that saved the day. Not Keynesian public works projects.The 1929 GDP was not exceeded until 1943 well into the war. It was not until 1955 that the 1929 stock market peak was exceeded.

The Democratic propaganda machine is a Juggernaut. Almost everyone believes that the Democratic Party and its vast public works projects saved the country in the 1930s after the stupid, do-nothing Republican Party had wrecked it. The Republicans don’t stand a chance. They don’t have a chance!

The American people in their ignorance have been adamant since day one that when the economy goes south the person to blame is the president. The problem with this cherished belief is that when the economy blows up the president cannot possibly be blamed because the constitution does not grant the president economic powers. Only congress is granted economic powers. There can be only one possible explanation for this belief. At least 80% of the American people must have been in a stupor when the constitution was being explained to them in civics class.
The president is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the chief executive officer or CEO of the federal bureaucracy. And he is the co-equal with the congress in diplomacy and foreign affairs. And that is where his powers end. His powers to influence the economy for good or ill are zero, Nada, zip.

The constitution grants congress total political power to influence the economy through its monopoly power to write laws effecting the economy and its power to spend money. Consider this; congress has the power to remove the president from office. But the president cannot remove one single member of congress from office. Congress can override the president by overriding his veto and thus impose its will on the president.But the president is powerless to override the will of congress if his veto is not sustained.

At this point some cretin will step forward and allege that while all this is true it is usually the case that congress follows the will of the president. You cannot be serious! What fantasy land have you been living in! Everything depends on which party controls congress. If his party controls congress, the president has a reasonable chance of getting something that vaguely resembles his proposal through. And this holds true only if you do not make the mistake of reading the legislation. If you read the legislation you are in for a rude disappointment. You will find that there is a yawning gap that looks like the Grand Canyon between what the president proposes and the legislation that he finally ends up signing. If on the other hand the president’s party does not control congress, forget it.

Recently, we have had a textbook demonstration of who holds the whip hand. When Treasury Secretary Paulson on September 20, 2008 presented President Bush’s now notorious $700 billion TARP program to congress. The proposal was written on three and a half pages. After he got through whining and begging the imperial congress presented the president with its own TARP program. A 450 page detailed document that after the president signed it had the force of law. Case closed!

Who runs the country,the Democratic Party? Who is responsible for the economy, the United States Congress?

Fred Carach is the author of the book, “Forty Years A Speculator” and his essays and pod casts can be viewed on his blog at fortyyearsaspeculator.blogspot.com

Income in a Zero-Rate World

One look at the yields on US Treasuries tells a good part of the story. Listening to Fed Chief Ben Bernanke gives us the rest: it is going to be very hard making any kind of money in many traditional fixed income instruments using the conventional method of clipping bond coupons. Certificates of Deposit won’t be much better moving forward. It would seem as though we are destined for either zero or near zero short-term interest rates for at least the next year.

At the same time, equity markets have been atrocious. That goes without saying. And it hasn’t just been the US markets either. International indexes have been decimated. Commodities, save Gold, have been hammered as well. There are always FOREX markets, trading options, and futures, but they are risky and often outside the comfort zone of the average investor. So the big question right now is how does one aspire to make any money in the markets given the current realities? Fortunately, there are a couple of strategies that are relatively easy to implement for the average investor. We’ll outline two of them here.

The hedged dividend Portfolio Model

The first is to create a situation where the investor is able to secure a higher rate of dividend income than that of traditional fixed income investments while significantly decreasing the risk to the portfolio. In order to do this, a portfolio of dividend paying assets is selected, and an appropriate hedge is identified to protect the investment. This allows the investor to get a comparatively high dividend yield while providing a higher degree of capital preservation than would otherwise be possible.

The problem with hedges is that markets don’t always go down, nor do they always go up. Obviously, when markets are moving higher a hedge will be a boat anchor on any portfolio. Conversely, the absence of a hedge in a falling market will also be a boat anchor. The challenge is identifying the bigger moves and acting accordingly.

Back in December, we took at a look at some model portfolios that were based on the investment themes focused on by the financial media during 2008. Of the three, let’s focus in on the energy portfolio, simply because it paid the best dividends of the three mentioned in that article:

Security
Symbol
5/19/2008 Price
11/20/2008 Price
Penn West Energy Trust
PWE
$33.83
$12.42
PenGrowth Energy Trust
PGH
$20.84
$7.84
Baytex Energy Trust
BTE
$29.20
$12.09
Harvest Energy Trust
HTE
$25.52
$9.20
Schlumberger
SLB
$106.63
$40.02
Permian Basin Royalty Trust
PBT
$24.74
$16.27
Kinder Morgan
KMP
$60.22
$45.37
Buckeye Partners
BPT
$49.11
$27.77
Ultrashort Oil&Gas ETF
DUG
$26.69
$49.57

This model contains 4 Canadian Royalty Trusts, an oil service company, two Master Limited Partnerships (MLP’s), and an express Trust. The model is heavy on the side of Canadian Royalty Trusts because they have been a popular vehicle for individuals to invest in oil and natural gas.

This model portfolio paid $19.98/share in dividends during the course of the period studied.
The assumption for the portfolio is that an equal number of shares were purchased for each issue listed. Let’s say for example that we purchased a round lot (100 shares) of each and a 16% hedge (250 shares) of DUG.

The initial cost of our portfolio on 5/19/08 (recent market high) would have been $41,681.50 plus any applicable commissions. The November 11/20/08 value (recent market low) was $29,490.50 for a loss of $12,191.00 or 29.25%. The dividends paid during that time would have totaled $1,998.00, a yield of 4.79% for just 6 months. Considering the S&P500 lost 47.25% during the same period, the hedged strategy performed much better and produced dividends at an annual rate of 9.58% as well.

Obviously, if the price of oil and natural gas had continued to rise, this would not have been an appropriate move since we would likely have gotten capital appreciation in additional to the dividends but the hedge would have lost significant value. The obvious risk to this type of an approach is that the incorrect hedge is used or a major market signal is missed. The whipsaw of the energy markets underscores the need to be up on the wheel in terms of keeping up with this type of a strategy. While it can certainly pay off, like anything else, it requires constant vigilance. The benefits are obviously the dividends and the knowledge that even if you don’t nail every move; you are still getting paid handsomely to wait until market conditions become favorable. And in the case of energy, you have the conviction of the belief that you are investing in a wasting asset that is becoming more and more difficult to get to market.

Income through covered calls

A second method that investors can use to make money on investments they hold is by writing covered calls. It isn’t as complicated as it sounds. In the interests of brevity, I will present a short primer of how an option works, focusing on calls for the purposes of this article.

A call gives the holder the right to purchase 100 shares of a stock at a given price, or ‘strike price’ for a period of time. For this option, the purchaser pays a premium. Let’s use an example to illustrate. Joe buys a call for Company XYZ at a strike price of $30 that expires in 3 months. The current share price is $28. Joe is speculating that the price of the stock will go up within the next 3 months. If indeed that happens, he can either sell his option to someone else (if it appreciates in value) or, if the price of the shares goes above $30, he can exercise his option, purchase the shares at $30 then sell them on the market for a profit. However, if the share price doesn’t move or goes down, Joe’s option will expire worthless.

Now let’s flip the roles and look at it from the standpoint of the investor who holds the shares. Let’s say that Joe buys 500 shares of XYZ stock at $28/share. What he can do is sell 5 calls (each call is an option on 100 shares) at a strike price of say $35. For selling these options, he’ll receive the premium, which will vary on a number of items such as the volume of options at that date and strike price, the time involved, and other factors.

Joe’s calls are ‘covered’ because he already owns the shares. If the option is exercised, he’ll just surrender his own shares as opposed to having to go out in the market and purchase them (naked call).

In the ‘worst’ case, the stock price rises to the point where the option holder will exercise and Joe will have to sell his $500 shares at $35/share. However, he not only received the premium from selling the options, but he also made $7/share. So his profit is $3,500 plus whatever he made selling the options. If the stock stays under $35, the option will expire unexercised and Joe can sell 5 more covered calls and bring in more premium. For stocks that are stuck in a range, this is a great strategy. Applying this strategy to a dividend-paying portfolio is a great way to enhance income, especially in a down market such as what we are dealing with right now. By combining this tactic with the hedged portfolio presented in the previous example, a fairly stable basket of dividend producing assets with extra income from the covered calls can be created.

Some things to consider

• It is a good idea to sell calls at a strike price that is significantly above what was paid for the shares. The example above is a reasonable one. If the strike price is too close to the current market price, you stand a better chance of getting blown out of your position. You’ll likely bring in more in premium for those options, but the likelihood of losing your position must be weighed. This is especially true if the intent is to collect dividends and supplement the dividend income with covered calls.

• Tax implications must also be considered. Generally for IRA type accounts this is not an issue as all taxes are deferred anyway. However, in the case of an individual taxable account, Joe’s $2,500 gain would be taxed as a capital gain. The amount of time Joe held his shares would determine whether he’d pay the short or long term rate.

• Writing uncovered or naked calls is not generally advisable and is typically more risky because the writer of the naked call has to have the money available to purchase the shares to sell should the option be exercised. For an investor who is looking to augment dividend income, writing naked calls is probably not a great idea.

If there is one silver lining to the current zero-rate environment, it is that consumer prices have not gone ballistic at the same time. The reduction in energy costs have helped consumers immensely and slightly lessened the need for inflation fighting 10-15% returns (see table below).

Observed Inflation Rate
Tax Bracket
Return required to break even
5%
28%
6.94%
7%
28%
7.92%
10%
28%
13.89%

However, by seeking out these types of returns anyway, investors can begin to either recoup some of what they lost in 2008 or prepare for a future that is at best unclear. Based on recent money supply figures, the assumption that we will once again be entering a period of high inflation is a pretty good one.

Perhaps the most important take home message from this article is that when you buy a stock you become an equity owner in that firm. And it is my belief that equity owners should share in the profits of the firm rather than resting their success solely on the hope that someone will come along at some point in the future and give them more for their shares than they paid.

It must be noted that these strategies are not suitable for every investor. The model portfolio in this article is used for informative and illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as an investment recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Disclosures: Long PWE, HTE

" A Contrarian's Viewpoint Of Technical Analysis In Today's world"

When I broke into the stock market in 1961 if you wanted to learn technical analysis you were immediately pointed to Edwards & Magee’s book,” Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends” which was the bible of the industry from its first edition in 1948 until its last edition in the 1970s. Of course technical analysis really got its formal start with the publication of the famous “Dow Theory” in a series of articles written by Charles Dow in the Wall Street Journal between 1900 and 1902.

However, until the 1970s technical analysis was frowned on by the street as being somewhat akin to astrology. Then for reasons that I don’t pretend to understand it suddenly became respectable. This respectability has come at a high cost. As a contrarian I regard today’s popularity of technical analysis as a curse and not a blessing. The founders of technical analysis regarded it as a tool for an elite minority in a world in which fundamental anlaysis reined supreme. They regarded themselves as savvy predators who would hide in the weeds and knock off the big game fundamentaltists as they came thundering by with their high powered technical rifles.

As many Wall Street professionals are only too well aware of, the more popular a market indicator becomes the more useless it becomes as a profit making indicator as every Tom, Dick and Harry jumps on the hitherto sucessful indicator and beats it to death. To put it simply what everybody knows isn’t worth knowing. It is what everybody doesn’t know that is of decisive importance.

Regretably, the current overpopularity of technical analysis is not its only problem from the contrarian viewpoint. Other very ugly problems exist. The worst of these problems is today’s overwhelming domination of moving average charts. This domination is recent. The final edition of Edwards & Magee’s book contained a remarkable 324 charts of which only 49 charts were moving average charts. These were stuck on at the end of the book as a sop to the growing power of the moving averages crowd. The earlier works contained far fewer moving avearge charts. Technical analysis was regarded by the old masters as an art that had to be mastered. In those days before the triumph of moving averages swept everything before it a technician was an expert in “pattern recognition analysis.” He was someone who had a hard earned ability to analyze bullish or bearish chart patterns. Among the more common types of patterns that technicians had to be able to master were head and shoulders, tops and bottoms, W patterns,triangles,rectangles,wedges, fans and gaps.

The trouble with moving averages is that they are way too popular and even worse way too easy to analyze. Let’s be honest! How much talent does it take to analyze a moving average? Not much. And everyone who looks at a moving average sees the same thing. The stock is either above the moving average or below the moving average. The triumph of technical analysis and moving averages has resulted in the worst of all worlds. A world in which everyone sees the same thing and what is truly ugly acts on it. If you are technician who uses moving averages what is your edge?

The edge that the founders of technical analysis once had is now gone. Even worse there is reason to believe that technicians are now the prey of choice for a new group of predators who are hiding in the weeds and who’s favorite big game animal is the technicians who are now kind enough to show the world their poker hand. Or is it just my imagination that stocks are no longer breaking through their moving averages with the power and authority that they used to? Those long decisive runs which are the bread and butter of technical analysis seem to occur less and less. Could the reason be unseen predators? How difficult is it today for savvy predators with enough capital behind them to lie in wait until the final minutes of trading and then “paint the tape” with their concentrated action creating a false breakthrough. Knowing full well that many technicians will fall into the trap like plump pigeons. After the trap is sprung of course the stock reverts back to its old mean.

What is to be done? I have two answers and you are not going to like either of them. As a contrarian I am obsessed with seeking out and finding valid metrics that are either ignored or unknown by the public. If you see what everyone else sees you have no edge. At all costs you must find an edge. You must find metrics or indicators that are valid and don’t appear on everyone’s radar scope. My first suggestion is to use Point & Figure charts. I know what you are going to tell me. Point & Figure charts went out with the horse and buggy. They are way too simple. Why they don’t even have Bollinger Bands or MACD. No serious technician would consider using something that pathetically simple in today’s modern world. Exactly! That’s the whole point. I would like to remind the reader that technicians were using Point & Figure charts with success for generations until moving averages swept away all the alternatives. To the best of my knowledge the most recognized proponet of Point & Figure charts today is Jim Dines of the highly regarded Dines Letter. The dean of investment letters Richard Russell also uses Point & Figure charts on a fairly regular basis. If you thought my first suggestion was horrifying. You are going to love my last suggestion. As I am writing these words I have a comical image of a hardcore technician blasting out of his chair in outrage and doing a triple summersault and bouncing on his head three times.

My last suggestion is that when a stock drops below its 200 day moving average it should be regarded as a bullish rather than a bearish event. There I said it. Before going nuts I challenge the reader to pick at random a dozen 5 year, 200 day moving average charts and too see them for the very first time. Ask yourself a revolutionary question. Why isn’t it better to buy a stock when its selling below its 200 day moving average rather than above its 200 day moving average. Study the charts and see them for the very first time. I told you I was a contrarian. We are always told that we should buy low and sell high. Now is your chance. Wen we buy above the 200 day moving average we are buying high in the hopes of selling to an even greater fool. Think about it!

Fred Carach is the author of the book “Forty Years A Speculator.” To view his blog, Click Here

2009 – The Song remains the same

Just when everyone thought we’d  heard the last of it. Just when you thought it was safe to turn on the evening news. Not quite – yet another bailout is being crafted as Bank of America needs even more of your tax dollars and the Treasury is on the job and ready to help.

Markets in typical fashion have been playing the emotional rollercoaster as rumor after rumor shot across the news ticker. Yes help is on the way – up go the markets. Oh wait, BofA might not get as much as they wanted – boom! stocks go down. And so the day and week have gone.

The fact that literally hundreds of billions of dollars in retirement accounts which consist of almost completely unrelated assets can hinge on whether more tax dollars will be thrown into the BofA black hole should tell us that something is terribly wrong here. 2009 it would seem is getting started exactly where 2008 left off.

Themes for 2009

Published on: 01/08/2009
Categories: My Two Cents
Comments: No Comments

2009 has certainly started off with a bang. While the financial markets have been rather quiet, underlying economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate.  Unfortunately, the rubber-stamped response to this deterioration has been nothing short of more of the same. More debt, more deficit spending, and more subterfuge to insist that it just isn’t so. The monetary stops have been pulled as the Federal government has gone public with its intentions. The biggest problem with this is that what we’re hearing now is what was going on six months ago. The idea of persistent trillion dollar deficits has been firmly planted with absolutely no mention of an exit strategy or how the Congress is planning on paying back these exorbitant amounts of borrowing. What is going on right now is downright frightening to non-Keynesians as we are desperately looking at these initiatives for something – anything that will cause real capital formation or foster genuine economic growth. Unfortunately, the ultimate plan appears to be something along the lines of taking a pebble and putting a rock on top of it, followed by a cement block, followed by a boulder. And the American taxpayer is the pebble; about to be crushed by ten generations worth of debt accumulated before we even reach the next decade.

In a classic journalistic transgression, the Congressional Budget Office stole most of the thunder of our first theme for 2009 – a blowout in the Federal deficit as the government, almost out of options, pulls out all the stops and piles it on taking the national debt curve parabolic. Here are some of the related issues as we see them for 2009:

States circle the wagons for bailouts

California, New York, and as many as 29 other states are already in fiscal extremis as revenues plunge due to unemployment and decreasing tax receipts. States are faced with difficult choices in 2009. They can raise taxes, cut services, beg for a bailout, or in all likelihood all of the above. And in a typical ironic twist of fate, the market for municipal bonds is drying up just when the states are going to need the money most. To make matters worse, yields on municipal bonds blew out to nearly 2.2 times the yields on corresponding Treasury issues. This is more than twice the .96 historic level normally observed. Obviously, the message here is that the perception of security is gone. We pointed out this likely eventuality when MBIA and AMBAC came under duress and saw their credit ratings cut back in June. Not only are the bonds questionable, but their insurance is as well. The bottom line here is that if bond issues can be sold, investors will command much higher yields resulting in greater debt servicing costs. Initial forecasts for 2009 indicate that there will be a 6% decrease in new bond issues sold, taking the total down to around $364 Billion.

The Goverbank buys Municipal Bonds

Goverbank – n – The combination of the debt-issuing Federal Reserve and the debt-assigning US Treasury.

Because of the realities above, and a worsening cash crunch at the state and local level, the Goverbank will begin buying bond issues in 2009. Obviously, this is a common sense conclusion given the actions already observed as the Goverbank has inserted itself as the buyer of last resort in numerous other markets already. However, it serves to drive home one of the important themes moving forward: there will be no market or bailout too large for the monetary authorities to undertake. $700 Billion was only the beginning. The buying of Muni bond issues will also lessen the funds required to service the debt by creating artificially low rates. This will prevent the need for even further taxpayer-funded municipal bailouts – but only on the surface. Think of the classic shell game; either way you’re paying for it.

Private sector businesses and industries beg for bailouts

Already the steel and newspaper industries have stated their intention to vie for government bailout money. The TARP (already overspent) is going to have to be stretched much further. While some in the media will point the semantical issue that the second half of the money hasn’t yet been released, it would be foolish to conclude that this will not happen. Sure, there may be some pandering and political posturing, but in the end the second $350 Billion will be released and distributed. In reality, the number is much higher than that already. It is very likely that we will see retail chains, more financial intermediaries, and scads of other businesses that rely on discretionary consumer spending in front of Congress as well in 2009. It is no accident that consumer staples companies did the best in 2008. The rest will soon be on Capitol Hill with hat in hand. The die has been cast – any industry that experiences malaise will want TARP money. A rather humorous story emerged last night, as apparently Larry Flynt is now demanding a bailout for the ‘entertainment’ industry. Incredible, but should come as no surprise. Expect more of this in 2009.

Creative financing will re-emerge to induce more borrowing

In an economy that is almost totally reliant on debt and spending, a cessation or curtailing of either of these activities will cause immediate problems. At this point, with negative savings rates having persisted since at least 2005, it is more imperative than ever that consumers continue to borrow and spend. The problem is how to induce this? The easy solution in 2001 was to put the pedal to the metal, drive interest rates down and create phony home ‘equity’ that could be easily tapped for almost any purpose. It should be noted that when home equity loans were first introduced the money had to be used for some type of noble purpose such as education or improving the property. No more. The big question now is how will consumers be cajoled into borrowing even more money? Look to the same folks who created adjustable rate and reverse amortization mortgages for the answer. Creative financing will be back in 2009. And I don’t just mean 0% interest loans. Any machination that allows payment to be put off until a later date will do. 12, 24, and 36 months interest-free. No payments for 12 months. Partial payments for 12 months. No down payment and we’ll make the first 3 monthly installments for you. We’ve already seen these before, but they’ll become commonplace in 2009. Look for new ones as well with longer payments terms, which ironically means you’ll end up paying even more for the items. However, the focus will be on the ‘low monthly payments’. Stimulus checks may not be checks at all, but may rather have a requirement for consumption attached. All indications are that the framers of the last stimulus package were unhappy because not enough of the money was spent. Apparently some people actually paid bills and/or saved the money. Maybe Wal-Mart and Home Depot Gift Cards will be the delivery method for the next economic stimulus. I’m only half joking about this.

2009 – The Bottom Line

In the end, the answer will be the same as it has always been – money printing. We have known this for a long time and the proof continues to come in each day in our news headlines. The government believes that only it can save us from certain financial destruction. And it will do so by employing the same policies that got us into this mess to begin with. Amazing. History has borne out this reality ever since the invention of fractional reserve banking and the printing press. The quantity of Dollars in your bank account may be guaranteed. There will be enough Dollars created to permit all the states, private firms, Bernie Madoff, and perhaps even Santa Claus to avoid insolvency. Bankruptcy, however, has been replaced by receivership. Firms will no longer go bankrupt; they will be absorbed in a giant asset consolidation. Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, WaMu, Citigroup, and Lehman are all examples of this new financial hierarchy. There will be plenty of Dollars. The problem Main Street will face in 2009 and beyond is twofold.

Monitoring and maintaining the VALUE of the currency will be the challenge. When and if the spigots are opened and these new Dollars cascade into the real economy, the value of existing Dollars will be destroyed in a very short period of time. Consequently, prices will skyrocket. Secondly, as has been pointed out before in previous articles, recognizing the transition will be key. It may happen slowly or it may happen quickly. Much of the effort of the Treasury so far has been aimed at controlling the flow of the fresh money to avoid touching off a hyperinflationary spiral. These developments will require constant analysis as 2009 unfolds.

Ultimately, the quantity of a fiat currency is easily manipulated. However, it is the value that is much harder to maintain.  Preserving value will be your challenge in 2009 – and ours along with you.

Disclosures:  Long MCD, XLP

Top Stories of 2008

12/24/2008

2008 will likely go down in history as the year when all those dire predictions made by Austrian thinkers over the past few years finally came to pass. Decades of excesses finally caught up to America, and in traditional fashion, those in authority tried valiantly to negate those excesses with even more of the same. So, to conclude the year, we’ll dig into some of the top stories of 2008. Next week we’ll discuss the top stories of 2009 and how they are likely to shape our country and world moving forward.

#4 – The Fed blows up yet another bubble

Conventional wisdom said that the Fed was out of bubbles to blow up once the housing market fell apart (and continues to do so). True, the home was probably the most convenient way that people could be cajoled into borrowing money on ‘equity’ that in fact never really existed to begin with. However, the Fed properly understands the relationship between debt and economic growth in a fiat monetary system. As such, Fed governors know that the American public must continue to borrow money. They also know that the US government, like consumers, is flat broke and needs to borrow money. So the Fed is now using its member banks to indirectly monetize debt. Put simply, the Fed creates money from nothing, then exchanges it for bad assets on the balance sheet of its member banks. The banks get rid of the toxic assets, then take the Fed’s new money and buy US Treasuries. The government ends up with the fresh money, and you the taxpayer have not only the responsibility to pay the principal back, but also to make interest payments to the Fed (vis a vis its member banks) in the meantime. In doing this, the prices of US government bonds have gone parabolic, and correspondingly, yields are now scraping against the ocean floor.

The net result of this is that savers are further punished by near zero or even negative rates of return on short-term money market instruments and other debt that as recently as a year ago were paying north of 4% interest. On the consumer side of things, mortgage rates have dipped significantly. The idea here is to stimulate borrowing by creating (once again) artificially low interest rates. Doesn’t this sound familiar – a la 2001? One problem is that banks are not lending like they were in 2001. Ironically, they are invoking lending standards again even though the Fed has almost completely eliminated risk from the equation! While money is available, it is generally available to only those with the best credit at the lower rates. The rest it seems need not apply. On the other side of the ledger, consumers are in much worse shape overall than they were in 2001. In many cases, mortgages are underwater, there is no ‘equity’ to be tapped, and credit card balances are higher than ever. In addition, the one means of supporting a debt lifestyle (employment) is being yanked out from under many people as weekly unemployment claims and monthly job loss numbers continue to mount at an alarming rate.

#3 – Energy price whiplash

From the perspective of energy prices, 2008 was a tale of two cities. For the first six months of the year, the headlines were about rising oil prices, potential shortages, and record gasoline prices. The second half the year featured a complete 180 degree turn with the entire move from January 2007 through July 2008 being erased and then some. As I pen this article, prices are threatening the $35/bbl level for crude oil and $5.50 for natural gas. In typical fashion, the financial media once again missed the real story here. The post-election revelation that the US has been in a recession since at least late 2007 was no real surprise to many of us, but underscored one of the points we have tried to establish all along in these weekly commentaries. Inflation is a monetary event, not an economic one. The fact that the largest run-up of oil prices in history came at a time when the US was in a recession throws water all over the idea that increasing prices are caused by economic growth alone. As has now been proven rather nicely this past year, that assertion could not be more wrong.

However, the real story behind the violent gyrations in oil prices and the markets in general is two-fold. First, the gyrations are indicative of a dying monetary system and rampant misinformation as ‘investors’, under the influence of mainstream media race first in one direction, then in another in a frantic attempt to predict the next bubble. These are the dynamics that have caused massive dislocations in bonds, stocks, currencies, and commodities over the past year. The fiat foundation is shaking beneath us. Secondly, the dynamics of petroleum supply are fragile, and such violent price swings and false market signals will have dire consequences moving forward. This issue will be discussed in greater detail next week, but in simple terms, we will see petroleum shortages because of this mess – likely in the next year to 18 months.

#2 – Congress – Out to lunch

If Congress’ approval rating was at an all time low going into this mess, it will be interesting to see what its approval rating is coming out of it. In our experience, it is very difficult to find two people to rub together who feel Congress has done a good job for the American people. Whether it is the financial industry bailout, the auto bailout, energy policy, Congressional raises, or a myriad of other issues, 2008 has been a year where Congress has earned it self a big, red F- as public servants. Congress’ actions this year are not a cause for much optimism moving forward. There is no doubt now that we are facing a crisis unlike anything seen in the last 100 years. There is little doubt amongst most of us that we are in no way ready to deal with it. We’re certainly able, but not ready.

Unfortunately, when it comes to getting common sense policy, don’t look towards Congress. Common sense policy would require a significant degree of economic pain for Americans. Congress is in the business of appeasing, not causing economic pain, and as such is impotent when it comes to solving any of our problems – financial or otherwise. Any decisions made by the 534 (minus Ron Paul because he knows what needs to be done) will be an attempt to further postpone the inevitable, and ultimately, will end up making it worse. While the ineffectiveness of Congress is not a story in and of itself, nor should it be a surprise, it serves as a confirmation of the belief that in a crisis, Congress almost always does the wrong thing.

#1 – Banks stay silent on bailout and Fed money

Thankfully, this is a story that the mainstream financial press is actually starting to pay some attention to. A few weeks ago, Bloomberg news filed a Freedom of Information Act request for full disclosure by the Federal Reserve for the trillions in loans it has given out. It must be remembered that these trillions are totally separate from the $700 Billion authorized by Congress in early October. The flimsy excuse given by the Fed for telling both Bloomberg and the American people to fly a kite was that they didn’t want to cause ‘anxiety’ in the markets. If people knew who got the money, then they might actually be able to make informed decisions regarding the health of those companies. Can’t have that, can we? So instead, the Fed has maintained a cloak of secrecy, which has served the purpose of spooking the entire market. This lack of transparency is partly responsible for getting us into this mess. Of course, even more of it will get us out of the mess. That seems to be the prevailing logic at work these days.

But there is more to the story.On 12/22/08, The Associated Press, to its credit, released a story about what is going on with regard to the more widely understood $700 Billion financial rescue package. At least in the case of this money, we have an idea of who got what. Unfortunately the transparency stops there. Here are some notable quotes from banking executives regarding TARP funds:

“We have not disclosed that to the public. We’re declining to.” Thomas Kelly – JP Morgan Chase – rec’d $25 Billion from the TARP

“We’re not providing dollar-in, dollar-out tracking.” Barry Koling – SunTrust – rec’d $3.5 Billion from the TARP

“We manage our capital in its aggregate.” Tim Deighton – Regions Financial – rec’d $3.5 Billion from the TARP

This is the attitude that the big banks have towards you, the taxpayer, who saved their jobs, their billion dollar bonuses, and their companies. The frightening thing about this situation is that the hubris of the financial industry as a whole has continued to mount despite the fact that they are constantly having to beg Congress for more of your money. Where has this money gone? At this point, the only valid assumption, in the absence of disclosure by the banks, is that the money is being stolen. The increasing likelihood that we are witnessing the biggest bank robbery of all time makes this story a dead wringer for #1.

Please accept our most sincere wishes for a joyous Christmas season and a healthy New Year – from all of us at Sutton & Associates and “My Two Cents”.

Will 2009 be the year?

There is a growing chorus among mainstream financial reporters and the corresponding ‘experts’ they trot out every 15 minutes. That almost all of these people are singing from the same songbook is definitely a cause for concern. They’re all saying 2009 is going to be year you won’t want to miss for stocks. You need to buy, buy hard, buy often, and most importantly, buy now.

Buyer beware

Conventional wisdom with regards to investing is that you don’t buy until there is blood in the streets. It is amazing the everyday folks that are now repeating that phrase to me in during the course of recent advisory sessions. Granted, a 45% decline in most major indices might qualify as blood in the streets, but is it over?

At best America is headed into a period where there is going to be little or no growth for the next 3-5 years. This assumes that the Fed and the rest can keep things held together with printed money (after all, that’s what they do and the printing press is their only tool). This is a pretty weighty assumption, but even if this is the case, there is going to be little support for higher stock prices in 2009. Let me float something else out there. Since the assumption by the media and the ‘experts’ so far is that the recession is near conclusion, wouldn’t it make sense that we’re going to see another down leg in stocks once everyone figures out this recession isn’t going away so quickly, and is in fact, getting worse? Some food for thought before you go and pull the trigger and put whatever you’ve got left after this year’s shellacking back into the markets.

Keep in mind also how many of the ‘experts’ make money. They make it on commissions. If you’re on the sidelines protecting yourself, they don’t make money. The commission-based folks are easy to spot – to them it is always time to buy into stocks. They were buying in November 2007, they were buying last summer, and they were buying this past fall. It will likely take their clients years to recover.

Our weekly radio show “Beat the Street” is in the process of doing a 2 part series on how to choose and assess financial professionals. We give you the questions you need to ask these folks, and tell you what red flags to look for in your dealings with them. The first part of the series is posted at CIC, and can be found by clicking the link below

Beat the Street – Is your advisor up to the Task? – Part 1

I would like to personally wish everyone a joyous Christmas and holiday season and the best for 2009 and remind everyone that our Centsible Investor subscription specials end on 12/31/08. Take advantage and lock in our low introductory rate today by clicking below:

Subscribe to “The Centsible Investor”

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