Tags: government

1 in 7 Americans Live in Poverty

Washington Post

In the second year of a brutal recession, the ranks of the American poor soared to their highest level in half a century and millions more are barely avoiding falling below the poverty line, the Census Bureau reported Thursday.

About 44 million Americans – one in seven – lived last year in homes in which the income was below the poverty level, which is about $22,000 for a family of four. That is the largest number of people since the census began tracking poverty 51 years ago.

The snapshot captured by the census for 2009, the first year of the Obama presidency, shows an America in the throes of economic upheaval.

Since 2007, the year before the recession kicked into gear, the country has almost 4 million fewer wage-earners. There are more children growing up poor. And for the first time since the government began tracking health insurance in 1987, the number of people who have health coverage declined, as people lost jobs with health benefits or employers stopped offering it.

With midterm elections less than two months away, the statistics bare the reality fueling much of the anger toward Washington.

In the Washington region, Virginia’s poverty rate rose the most, to 10.5 percent from 8.6 percent. Maryland’s edged up half a percentage point to 9 percent. The District’s rate was the highest, but it declined from 18 percent to 17 percent.

Although the recession’s impact was broad-based, there were disparities among groups. The official poverty rate increased for all races and ethnicities except Asians, who continued to have the highest median household income. More working-age adults lived in poverty, while the number of poor people 65 or older fell, largely as a result of increases in Social Security payments.

More than 51 million Americans lack health insurance, the census reported, and a greater-than-ever percentage of those who do have insurance are getting it from the government.

Scholars, nonprofit groups that work with the poor and President Obama all expressed concern about the gloomy picture.

Obama said the numbers could have been much worse were it not for government assistance.

“Because of the Recovery Act and many other programs providing tax relief and income support to a majority of working families – and especially those most in need – millions of Americans were kept out of poverty last year,” he said in a statement.

Many conservatives, however, laid the blame on government programs that don’t work.

“We’re spending more money fighting poverty than ever before, yet poverty is up,” said Michael D. Tanner, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. “Clearly, we’re doing something wrong.”

Along with a rise in the number of people living in poverty, the census reported a decrease in the number of people who are living just above poverty level, suggesting that many of those just slightly above poverty slipped over the edge in the previous year.

Food banks and shelters around the country say they are seeing former donors asking for help.

Dale City resident Jamie Imler is one. She used to give money to charity and make quilts for homeless shelters. But since she began treatment for breast cancer last year, she has been too weak to work at either of the two jobs she held, one in a restaurant and one for a recruitment agency. Her income has dropped from $2,000 a month to less than $700 – not enough to cover her rent – and she has been coming for the past six months to a food pantry in Prince William County called Action Through Service.

“Things were good,” she said. “I was a single mom, raised my son and needed food stamps.”

“And now I’m here,” she added.

While the number of the country’s poorest people is higher than in any other recorded period, the rate is not without precedent. The last time it was this high was 1994. And in the early 1960s, it was over 20 percent.

Despite the jump in poverty, median income did not go down for those who still had jobs. Men working full time saw their median earnings rise 2 percent, to $47,000, while the median wage of women rose about the same amount, to a little over $36,000.

The median household income declined a little, to just under $50,000. But household income is down 4.2 percent since the recession began and 5 percent from its peak of more than $52,000 in 1999. Black households fared particularly poorly, as incomes dropped 4.4 percent compared with 1.6 percent for white households.

“We always have a situation where some population groups have higher poverty rates than others,” said Margaret Simms, who directs the Low Income Working Families Project at the Urban Institute. “During recessions, we see who bears the brunt in hard times in the kinds of numbers we see today.”

The statistics have quickly become fodder for a debate on the proper role of government in combating economic downturns.

“It’s a strong indication that there is not enough focus on growth and investment in job production,” said Ken Blackwell, the former Ohio state treasurer who is a fellow at the Family Research Council.

Ron Haskins, a head of the Brookings Center on Children and Families at the Brookings Institution, said government programs do not have enough money to make up for the decline among private and employer-provided health care. “Is the government going to pick it up?” he said. “That means bigger government, bigger expenses, more taxes.”

This summer, a proposal to extend jobless benefits to the long-term unemployed came under attack by Republicans, who objected to more spending that would add to the soaring deficit. The measure eventually passed.

Some of those who have struggled to find work are making their way to Good Shepherd Alliance, a food pantry in Loudoun County, which is one of the country’s wealthiest jurisdictions.

Vickie Koth, executive director, said she has grown accustomed to hearing clients say, almost as if dazed by their dizzying descent, that they used to volunteer at nonprofits like hers. The downturn will end some day, she noted, and hard times should be remembered.

“A lot of the community is really seeing this issue for the first time,” she said. “. . . Once this turns around, I hope that people will remember what we went through so that our communities will be more open to serving those around us who are in need.”

Staff writers Jennifer Buske and Caitlin Gibson contributed to this report.

Americans $6 Trillion Short for Retirement

Published on: 09/15/2010
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

A new study obtained by CNBC says Americans are $6.6 trillion short of what they need to retire.

The study, conducted by Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research, says savings have been squeezed by declines in stock and housing values.

The study was commissioned by Retirement USA, a coalition of organized labor and pension rights advocates that hopes to use the study to push for a more stable retirement system. The group plans to unveil the study at a news conference in Washington on Wednesday.

The $6.6 trillion figure is based on projections of retirement and income for American workers ages 32-64. The study’s authors say they arrived at the amount using conservative assumptions, including a 3 percent rate of return on assets and no further cuts in pension coverage or increases in the Social Security retirement age.

“Using other assumptions, it could be much higher,” said Maria Freese, Director of Government Relations and Policy for the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. For example, the study notes, if the rate of return matches the return on U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), currently 1.87 percent, the deficit balloons to $7.9 trillion.

This announcement comes on the heels of other sobering news: Milliman Inc., a Seattle-based actuarial and consulting firm, reported this week that the funded status of the 100 largest corporate defined benefit pension plans dropped by $108 billion during August 2010.

This comes amid recent reports indicating that a White House-created panel is considering proposals to cut Social Security benefits and raise the retirement age.

“The ‘Retirement Income Deficit’ should be a wake-up call to Americans everywhere,” Freese said.

Economy ‘Barely Has a Pulse’ – AP

Published on: 08/27/2010
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

WASHINGTON (AP) – The government is about to confirm what many people have felt for some time: The economy barely has a pulse.

The Commerce Department on Friday will revise its estimate for economic growth in the April-to-June period and Wall Street economists forecast it will be cut almost in half, to a 1.4 percent annual rate from 2.4 percent.

That’s a sharp slowdown from the first quarter, when the economy grew at a 3.7 percent annual rate, and economists say it’s a taste of the weakness to come. The current quarter isn’t expected to be much better, with many economists forecasting growth of only 1.7 percent.

Such slow growth won’t feel much like an economic recovery and won’t lead to much hiring. The unemployment rate, now at 9.5 percent, could even rise by the end of the year.

“The economy is going to limp along for the next few months,” said Gus Faucher, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. There’s even a one in three chance it could slip back into recession, he said.

Many temporary factors that boosted the economy earlier this year are fading. Companies built up their inventories after cutting them sharply in the recession to match slower sales. The increase provided a boost to manufacturers, but now many companies’ stockpiles are in line with sales and don’t need to grow as much.

In addition, the impact of the government’s $862 billion fiscal stimulus program is lessening.

That leaves the private sector to pick up the slack. But businesses are cutting back on their spending on machines, computers and software, according to a government report earlier this week. And the housing sector is slumping again after a popular home buyer’s tax credit expired in April.

“What we’re seeing is that the hand-off to the private sector is not looking as robust as we had previously hoped,” said Ben Herzon, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisors.

Many analysts say the uncertainty surrounding the economy is holding back consumers from spending and companies from investing and hiring.

Consumers can’t be sure their jobs are safe, with unemployment so high. Business executives don’t know if sales and profits will grow enough to justify adding jobs. And potential changes to tax laws at the end of this year and other policy reforms also make it hard to plan ahead, economists say.

“People have been overwhelmed by uncertainty,” said Ethan Harris, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

A big reason the government will mark down its estimate of last quarter’s gross domestic product is that imports surged much more in June than expected. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy’s output and covers everything from auto production to haircuts.

Imports rose by 3 percent to just over $200 billion in June, while exports fell to $150.5 billion, pushing the trade gap to almost $50 billion, the biggest in nearly two years. Friday’s report may show that the higher imports knocked as much as 3 percentage points off second quarter growth, economists at Goldman Sachs estimate.

But trade isn’t likely to be as big a drag in the current quarter. With businesses slowing their spending on inventories and capital equipment, imports are likely to slow.

Housing, which added to the economy’s growth in the second quarter, is now likely dragging it down. The homebuyer’s tax credit boosted home sales in the spring, raising real estate brokers’ commissions.

But home sales fell sharply in July, and new home construction also declined. That will weigh on economic growth this quarter, but its impact won’t be as bad as earlier in the recession. That’s because housing has shrunk so sharply.

It made up more than 6 percent of the economy at the height of the boom in 2005, but now accounts for only 2.5 percent.

High unemployment is making it harder for people to make their mortgage payments and stay in their homes.

About 9.9 percent of homeowners had missed at least one mortgage payment as of June 30, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. That number, adjusted for seasonal factors, was close to a record high of more than 10 percent at the end of April.

Friday’s report is the second of three estimates the government issues for each quarter’s GDP.

The Manufacturing Myth

Published on: 08/04/2010
Comments: No Comments

They still don’t get it – or perhaps they do and just won’t admit it. Either way, it doesn’t matter much as the jesters, namely Msrs. Bernanke and Greenspan, continue to chirp their assigned lines, playing good cop/bad cop with the USEconomy. Right now, Bernanke is the good cop, pointing to increasing wages and the likelihood that the consumer will once again step up and rescue us from the grips of the double dip. On the other side of the room is Greenspan, talking about how that double-dip is still possible, although extremely unlikely. Today the mainstream press jumped on the bandwagon and trumpeted the smashing success of the ISM’s manufacturing index for June as an indicator that all is and will be well. Stocks soared, bonds shed a point, and oil jumped over $80/barrel for the first time since May.

July ISM Index

So what gives with manufacturing anyway? For years now we’ve heard stories about the deindustrialization of America and have seen countless pictures of decaying factories and manufacturing infrastructure. Yet at the same time the economic masterminds of this nation are telling us that manufacturing is going to pull us out of this horrible recession, and in fact, prevent any and all future recessions. If ever there was a dichotomy in perception, it is now. It would appear as if suddenly everyone is realizing that we must produce in order to consume. While this is a notable departure from conventional Keynesian theory, are we seeing a true sea change or just lip service to the common sense of the matter?

Inventories

Manufacturing currently accounts for about 28% of GDP at just a tad over $400 billion annually (based on final value of shipments) at our current clip, but total goods-producing employment accounts for just 13 million jobs – less than 14% of total US non-farm employment. By contrast, service sector jobs account for a whopping 85.5% of US non-farm employment and provisioning of services accounts for over 70% of GDP.

The Myth of the Manufacturing-Led Recovery

A closer look at the manufacturing activity over the past year jives with direct observation and many conversations with management level staff of several firms. The bump up has been anecdotally nothing more than a period of inventory rebuilding after inventories were run down during the recession. The biggest difference between the recession of the early 1990’s (see chart above) and the last two recessions is the wide acceptance of JIT (just-in-time) inventory management, CRM, ERP, and similar systems as firms broke away from accepting carrying costs as a cost of doing business and made an attempt to streamline operations to compete globally.

The net result of these fundamental changes in the way business is conducted is that inventories are now run down much faster than previously, and the rebuilding phase begins earlier – often while the recession is still in progress. If we had a true manufacturing economy, all else being equal, we might have a reasonable chance of being rescued to some extent by inventory building. However, ultimately, in the absence of an increase in aggregate demand, manufacturing will begin to stagnate again once the rebuild is complete. It should also be noted that the value of inventories is only marginally adjusted for changes in price, hence the increasingly higher dollar amount of goods.

Goods-Producing Jobs

Even though the ISM index made a slightly better showing than what was expected, this was clearly another case of ‘less bad’ being good. New orders continued to slump, down to 53.5 from 57, indicating very sluggish growth and contributing to the idea that the inventory rebuild is nearly complete. The 53.5 reading on the new orders index was the lowest since the same month last year according to the ISM. The backlog index fell by 2.5 points to 54.5 and that, combined with the new orders data, belied the small blip up in manufacturing unemployment and gives considerable credence to the temporary nature of such a move. Of course with the Labor Department solidly fudging the jobs numbers every month it is rather difficult to get a solid reading on anything at this point.

Overall, the composite manufacturing index put in its lowest reading of the year at 55.5. Anything over 50 signals growth with values less than 50 signaling contraction. Even the MSM is now admitting that manufacturing’s role in the continuing ‘recovery’ is becoming suspect. Small wonder.

Bernanke had quite a bit of cold water thrown on his argument as well on Wednesday as auto sales were rather tepid in July, especially when the massive incentives offered by manufacturers were thrown in. The 6% gain in sales will be almost totally wiped out in dollar terms by the slashed prices. Bernanke’s thesis took another blow just an hour later when personal income and outlays were released and neither moved an inch in July. Non-durables and services were particularly weak. Given the contribution to GDP that services represent, this is an unsettling trend.

The bottom line is that services alone will not be able to remove us from our economic and fiscal duress mainly because so many cannot be exported and therefore are of little help to the current account. A strong manufacturing presence would do wonders, however, it is very difficult to ask a struggling consumestocracy to purchase domestic goods at a steep premium to their foreign counterparts. National pride will certainly help some make the leap, but in many cases, the price gaps are just too large.

Tariffs could be used to close the gap, but widespread use could very well put an end to the Chinese (and others) vendor financing of the American economy. The same can be said for import quotas. For all the talk of energy independence, that would only be a microscopic piece of recapturing true national sovereignty. And yes, we have lost a good deal of that by virtue of being dependent on other nations to fill our shelves with everything from soap dispensers to many food items.

As for the current economic malaise? As the chart above shows, the tiny blip in manufacturing jobs represents so small a portion of our labor market that it is nearly laughable that anyone would assert that such a performance will lead this economy anywhere. Yet the spin-doctors continue to do exactly that.

Life After Government Stimulus

Published on: 06/11/2010
Comments: No Comments

There is perhaps no better example of the destructive nature of government intervention than the current housing and retail goods markets. For the past three years a spend-happy Congress lavished these areas with stimulus spending, tax credits, and other palliatives all aimed at papering over the structural defects in these markets. In the case of housing, the problem was years of easy money, sky-high prices, and zero-standards lending. In the case of retail goods, it was years of abuse of various types of credit to expand a spending bubble and increased reliance on foreign products. However, Congress has now buttoned up – in fear for their political existence in many cases. The public is aware and fearful of debt for the first time in recent memory. Living in a post-stimulus world; even if it is only until the next Congress is seated will be interesting to say the least.

The Housing Market’s Freefall

While the actual damage to the housing market in the near term cannot be totally assessed until later this month, there are some hints in the rate at which purchase applications for mortgages have plunged. The following data is compiled weekly and presented by the Mortgage Bankers Association:

MBA Indices

During the past 4 weeks, purchase applications are down a whopping 35%. It is easy to see the spike at the end of April as the end of the tax credit lured May’s (and perhaps June’s too) sales back a month. The downward trend of new purchase applications has continued into June despite very low relative interest rates for home loans. These low rates boosted the Refinance portion of the index during May and remain low, the national average currently at 4.88% according to bankrate.com.

With an upcoming election, we will now likely get the first glimpse at the true state of the housing market. Granted there are still many programs in place at the Fannie/Freddie/FHA level that are encouraging purchases to varying degrees, but it is not likely that direct stimulus through tax credits will be used for at least the next few months. What is very disconcerting is that more than half of the purchasing blitz during March and April was done on the back of government mortgages. Much in the way the government nationalized the student loan business it is now similarly giving the heave ho to private lenders in the mortgage market. These actions virtually guarantee the perpetuation of the distortions currently seen in this critical area.

30-Year Mortgage Rates

I had commented, perhaps cynically, to some friends back in 2005 that the housing bubble seemed to be little more than a giant property grab. With government now owning or guaranteeing the majority of mortgages (69 percent), it seems that very well could be the case. Unemployment is still high, decent paying jobs are difficult to come by, and people are still being laid off. Consumer debt burdens are causing the financial hardships endured by many to continue. Repossessions of houses just hit another all-time record high last month. When the government owns the mortgage and someone defaults, who gets the house? Some food for thought on a Friday afternoon.

Retail’s May Swoon

This morning’s retail sales report gave much more cause for concern than any of the recent month’s reports in this area. I’ve dissected these reports on several occasions for our paid subscribers to reveal the biases. Put simply the numbers are not what they seem and haven’t been for quite some time now. The biases, statistical and/or hedonic, tend to overstate retail sales.

Retail Sales

Even those biases could not conceal last month’s drop. It is quite likely that the 1.2% decrease in sales was caused in no small part by the ‘Here we go again’ mindset when global stock markets began another round of liquidation. The media had been blaming a late Memorial Day for the potential downdraft in sales well in advance of the release of this morning’s report, which really makes no sense. The drop in sales speaks volumes about the delicate nature of consumer confidence. It is easily shaken these days, and it doesn’t take much. Granted the European (and spreading) debt crisis is a huge problem and will affect us eventually, however, that is not the impression the average person has thanks to the largely absentee media in this country. The crash of 2008, however, is still on people’s minds, and there is a general fear of a recurrence of those conditions. So when the markets act up, people slow spending and increase savings. It is one of the few things we’ve seen in recent memory that actually makes sense. Ironically, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is telling us that confidence is at the highest level since 2008. So much for our brief trip back to sanity.

The retail sector has not been without its share in the government stimulus binge of the past three years either. Most of the stimulus other than the checks sent out in early 2008 has been indirect, however, the benefits from foreclosure prevention tactics, strategic defaults, and hyper-extended unemployment benefits have perpetuated the spending bubble much in the same way the housing bubble has been prodded along. However, with more and more states such as Colorado and California having to borrow money to pay unemployment benefits and record repos of homes, it would seems likely as though the fuel for this leg of the spending bubble might be petering out somewhat.

Another weight on the consumer is the comparatively higher interest rates on credit cards. According to creditcards.com, the national average for credit cards in May 2010 was 14.31%, up from 12.75% just 6 months ago. So even as banks have been able to borrow from the Fed for essentially nothing, they’ve repaid the consumer for the hefty bailouts by jacking interest rates. Of course the selling line here is that so many consumer loans are in default. Small wonder. Maybe if the underwriting department hadn’t taken 5 years off this wouldn’t have happened.

In summary, the pressures on these two critical markets are increasing as the government’s ability to intervene is hampered by a broadening awareness of its own insolvent state. Granted, one or two months does not a trend make, but we need to be aware of the possible paradigm shift that is occurring – the end of the age of perpetual stimulus.

Gold Rises as the Euro Vaporizes

This wasn’t supposed to happen. When it was introduced 11 years ago, the Euro was to be the world’s newest, biggest, and best yet currency. There were strict guidelines for getting into Club Euro and you’d better follow them if you didn’t want to be voted off the island. What became immediately clear is that there were stronger members and weaker members. That fact is becoming increasingly apparent as the real state of the Eurozone now comes into clear focus. Over the years, rules were bent, concessions made, and explanations given, all for the purposes of justifying short-term benefits such as the availability of Italian milk to the Club. Yes, Italian milk.

In yet another example of the failure of globalization, or regionalization as it were, the Euro is poised on the precipice of disintegration. Ironically, it will not be the overprinting and resultant hyperinflationary spiral that kills the Euro, but dead weight in the form of various Eurozone welfare states. Germany and some of the other quasi-responsible members simply cannot carry their own burdens and those of Greece, Spain et al. The $1 Trillion rescue fund created in haste this past weekend was intended to inspire confidence in the dying behemoth. Instead, the sheer magnitude of the bailout has done the exact opposite. The Euro-Dollar pair has now sunk below pre-bailout levels and there is a good deal of doubt as to whether rescue recipients will be willing or able to hold up their end of the bargain. I pointed this out in last week’s piece. The temporary euphoria created by a trillion dollars of palliative paper is already gone. This is something that was alluded to in these pages years ago; the law of diminishing returns applies to stimulus and bailouts. As the periods of crisis occur in a more frequent fashion, the effectiveness of Keynesian monetary policy falls commensurately.

Euro Crash

That aside, there are several other points that must be addressed as we examine the latest Tower of Babel in the global macroeconomic arena.

National Sovereignty Ceded

While anyone looking at the debt picture could tell that Greece (like so many others) was in trouble almost since its acceptance into the Eurozone, its problems burst into the international media in early 2010. One of the first things that many people noted was the major difference between the Greek government and that of America. Greece was hamstrung in that it did not have its own national bank; it relied on the ECB. While I am not a fan of national or central banks absent a strict Gold standard, this total absence of flexibility accelerated the Greek crisis in months, rather than years. Greece had given up its national identity to join the Club. And for a time it worked. The people of Greece enjoyed lavish social benefits and a carefree lifestyle. As an IMF official recently said, however, and I am paraphrasing: “The party is over”.
Other dominoes are set to fall as well since every other country in the Club has essentially the same problem: they cannot pay their bills, and have no way to wiggle out of it. While in the strictest of terms, this is not a bad thing; it outlines the categorical failure of international trading and currency blocs in the long run. There are always members of any cohort who will try to ride the coattails of someone else. It is human nature and it will not change. From that standpoint, the breakup of the Club was ordained from the day of its inception.

The mere existence of these multinational blocs also fosters a temporary sense of false security, as member nations don’t mind their own fiscal indiscretions because they have the perception that they’ll be picked up by the rest. And they usually are initially, so why change? This is precisely why the Greek people (and now the Spaniards too) are resorting to riots and national strikes. Old habits die hard.

At the bottom of the mess, however, is the loss of national identity. While we look at them as Greeks and Germans, they have in a way come to view themselves as Europeans – citizens of Europe. As Ben Franklin so eloquently put it, new nations come into the world like illegitimate children; half compromised, half improvised. In the case of the EU, we’ve already seen the compromise. Now the improvisation has begun in earnest.

Destruction from Within

Much in the same way the EU is being destroyed by the profligate spending and lackadaisical approach to fiscal matters of a few members, the United States is in a similar position of being devoured from within. This is where it gets very dicey, and I am bound to step on a lot of toes here, but it needs to be said. We know that roughly half of Americans pay nothing in the way of Federal income tax. While I don’t have exact numbers for the 50 states, I cannot imagine that the situation is much different there. This means that, like the EU, America has roughly half of its population riding the coattails of the other half. I am sure that in many cases there are good and noble reasons why this is the case, but I’m trying to address this from a structural macroeconomic standpoint rather than drilling down to specific reasons why people aren’t paying. Frankly, for the purposes of this discussion, it doesn’t even matter. In this way, America is a microcosm of the Eurozone. And we’re not alone. Great Britain is in the same boat. The bills cannot be paid. There is no way to squeeze enough money from the paying 50% to take care of their benefits let alone those of the other 50%.

Falling Tax Receipts

Much like the EU, America has a central bank, which advocates Keynesian policies such as deficit spending and unfettered monetary creation. Save for one brief stint of interest rate austerity in the early 80’s, America has never wavered. And before we sing the praises of Mr. Volcker, we must consider that his actions most likely were taken to perpetuate the broken system as a whole as opposed to representing some blanket metamorphosis of economic thinking.

The single biggest difference here is that the members of the Club still have the ability to vote others off the island, and/or leave themselves. There is a point certain where the people of Germany, for example will no longer tolerate the abrogation of their economic and financial sovereignty and will either compel Ms. Merkel to take appropriate action or will replace her with someone who will. Hence all the talk of the breakup of the Eurozone. The die was cast on January 1, 1999 when the Euro officially became an international unit of account.

Race to Gold – the Endgame of Paper

All the gloom and doom aside, there is an out for those countries and individuals who fear the breakup of the Eurozone, dollar standard default, national bankruptcy, and the types of cataclysmic financial events that our behavior causes us to flirt with. It is shining right now, making new all-time highs as I pen this commentary. It is soaring even as the dollar races higher thanks almost entirely to the fall of the Euro. The mini liquidation last week in global markets was unable to shake it, so unlike the Lehman days in 2008. People around the globe are racing to Gold as the ultimate safe haven. Where the US Dollar is a proxy on the flaws of the Euro, so is Gold the ultimate proxy on the fallacy of stable paper currencies in a Keynesian world. Where paper currencies represent control, Gold represents freedom and a standard weight and measure.

This is probably one area where many here in America fail to understand the connection between our wallets and the first round of the Eurozone bailout. Thanks to our contributions to fund the IMF, and the resumption of various Fed emergency swap programs, the American taxpayer is on the hook for more of the European rescue fund than anyone who seeks to maintain their position in politics or finance is willing to admit. The burdens of lesser paper currencies are shifting to the already compromised US Dollar and the American taxpayer. There is nowhere else to turn except honest money. Truly, the buck will stop there.

One of the biggest ways our premium newsletter has benefitted its subscribers over the past few years is comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic, monetary, and precious metals environments. In May’s issue, which will be released on 5/15, we cover the conventional wisdom surrounding sovereign debt loads, propose some alternate metrics, and look at the latest jobs figures. For more information, click here.

The Turmoil Continues

The obvious pick for a topic this week would be yesterday’s fearful plunge in US Markets. However, absent a well-defined culprit for the plunge (so far), it seems pointless to speculate on what really happened. I am still sifting through my own observations of that ten-minute span as well as those sent to me by subscribers. There are reports of index ETFs with near zero volume and unfilled orders at the market. Yesterday should also serve to remind us of the possible pitfalls associated with using stops. There were countless times in 2008 when stops weren’t filled. It happened again yesterday. Truly it was an awful day well before 2:40 with the Dow already off several hundred points. Looking at the bigger picture, yesterday was the fourth 90% down day in two weeks. The market’s disposition has clearly changed for the worse. All this aside, there are a couple of other topics that need to be discussed, which have an even larger bearing on what is going on behind the scenes.

The ‘Strong Dollar’ is Back?

For the past several weeks, the proclamations of a ‘strong dollar’ have been floating around the airwaves. Commentators will point at the rising USDollar Index and mistakenly assume that everyone wants our currency because our economy is recovering so nicely. What they fail to understand and/or convey is how the index is calculated. The index is nothing more than a weighting of the value of various currencies versus the Dollar. The Euro is currently 57.1% of the index and is in freefall thanks to out of control sovereign debt. Our policymakers should be taking notes on the developments in Europe. At any rate, since currencies are traded in pairs, when one half of the pair falls, the other rises. This recent surge in the US Dollar index, while good for us in terms of the cost of European imports has nothing to do with the strength of our currency. I’ve said this time and time again. We have to hope for bad things to happen to the rest of the world to keep the Dollar afloat. The true barometer of the strength of a currency is the cost of Gold in that currency. Even as the Dollar index has risen over the past several months, Gold priced in Dollars has risen right along with it. Gold is sniffing out exactly the points made above. People are fearful of paper currencies, and while they dump the Euro in favor of the Dollar in the short run, they are also loading up on Gold, the ultimate money.

Gold versus USDollar

The reality shown above is not a one or two day event, but a three month trend, which is intact even in a period of extreme market distress. Many people will try to draw parallels between 2008 and the present. By that logic, they argue that Gold should be falling since we’re flirting with another period of all-out liquidation. However, 2008 was largely a liquidity crisis whereas today we are facing that plus the bankruptcy of roughly 20 nations and the possible disintegration of at least one currency along with it. Yes, the sovereign debt crisis is that bad. Granted, the emerging divergence between the equity markets and Gold (shown below) is in its infancy, but it is a very important development and needs to be pointed out now.

Gold versus DJIA

Will Greece Pay Up?

On the front burner and driving the current hysteria is the situation in Greece. While the EU has come together to bailout the embattled nation, there are legitimate fears that:

a) The bailout isn’t big enough and is merely a band-aid. Apparently folks have been paying attention to the bailout of the US financial system.

b) The EU won’t be willing (or able) to extend the bailout

c) The people of Greece will not accept austerity measures

d) The people of Greece will dismiss their standing government in favor of one who will continue the current welfare state.

e) Greece will not pay back its neighbors for the bailout

I would contend that all of these are legitimate concerns. Several days of intense rioting and national strike by the people of Greece are making it very clear that at this point they have no intention of being under the thumb of austerity. This is what happens when you create a welfare state. Again, our policymakers should be taking notes. The country can’t pay back what it already owes, hence the ‘need’ for a bailout. How is a reasonable person to accept the notion that somehow Greece will now be able to pay back the money already owed plus another $146 billion in bailout loans?

Yanking the carpet out from under a welfare state is going to have monumentous social implications. The people of Greece are likely to dispatch their current government in favor of one who will take a disposition similar to that of Iceland and tell the lenders of the bailout money and the country’s creditors in general to take a real long walk off a short pier.

It would be bad enough if this problem stopped at the Greek borders, but unfortunately, it is nearly systemic in Europe, and in fact extends across the Atlantic as well.

Freddie Mac Continues to Bleed

In a harsh reminder of the perpetual state of bailout that the US has entered, Freddie Mac announced earlier this week that it will need another $10.6 Billion from the Treasury by the end of June to cover first quarter losses of $6.7 Billion. This wil run Freddie’s tab to well over $50 Billion with no end in sight.

Back in 2008, the USGovernment pledged to guarantee that both Freddie and Fannie Mae maintain a positive net worth. This has led to periodic infusions of cash into what is now admitted to be a black hole at both companies. What is most concerning about these actions is that there is little or nothing being done to end the reliance on bailouts. At the root of this problem lies the reality that people, for various reasons, cannot pay their mortgages. For many it is because of job losses. If we’re going to borrow and throw money down a black hole, it would have made a lot more sense to use the $50 Billion to build some factories that would employ workers who would produce goods made in the US. That would have put people to work and at the same time would have helped us ease our reliance on foreigners. Instead, we throw the money away, choosing to perpetuate a broken system.

April Jobs Report

As of this writing, the April jobs numbers are available. The economy ‘added’ 290,000 jobs in April, with generous upward revisions to both February and March. What is disconcerting about this report is the fact that we now know that roughly 600,000 new census workers are in place, yet these folks don’t appear to be attributed to the government’s portion of the non-farm payroll. BLS is claiming that of the 573,000 jobs created so far this year that 483,000 were created in the private sector. Yet looking at the Federal Government’s workforce over the past few months there hasn’t been much of an increase at all. So either government is trimming the sails in other areas or the census workers aren’t being counted as government employees, but are instead being credited to the private sector. A recent Gallup survey seems to bear out this discrepancy in that it concluded that government hiring was outpacing private sector job creation. While we don’t yet have the birth/death adjustment to April’s numbers, it is clear that something is amiss. The headline and U-6 unemployment rates rose to 9.9% and 17.1% respectively. State and Local government workforces continued to shrink in April, outlining the dire circumstances that continue to face many geographic areas.

With the cost of insurance on European bank bonds surging to a pre-Lehman high, it is apparent that at the very least, there is again a severe ripple in the credit system, this time at a sovereign level. Given debt levels around the globe it is quite likely that damage control will take precedent over containment.

Debt and an American Bankruptcy

There has never been as much attention paid to the situation of a looming American bankruptcy since the National Debt Clock made its debut many moons ago. It is hard these days to pick up a newspaper or look at a TV program without hearing someone mention our massive debt. And they’d be correct in saying we’re in big trouble. Numerous articles have asked the question ‘Is America Bankrupt?’ While bankruptcy on a family or individual scale is a fairly simple construct to grasp, such is not the case when it comes to a nation or group of nations, as is the case in Europe. This week’s essay is dedicated to making a rather complex question a little easier to understand, and more importantly – to arrive at a more definitive answer.

Probably the most misleading of conclusions is to simply point at the national debt and declare America to be bankrupt. While there is no denying that America is in big trouble with its national debt that will not be what causes bankruptcy. Think of it on a micro scale – a family. Family X has $120,000 per year in revenues and $150,000 in expenses. Let’s say for the sake of simplicity that the family replicates these figures for 4 years. At the end of the 4 years, Family X’s debt (not counting interest payments) will be 100% of its revenues. Is Family X bankrupt? Absolutely not. Truth told, this family could continue to run these annual deficits as long as someone is willing to give them $30,000 in loans each year, dismissing debt service payments for simplicity.

For some reason when it comes to looking at Sovereign debt and debt ratios, the number always used as a benchmark is GDP. I am uncomfortable using GDP in creating a quantitative measurement of solvency since GDP is not some cash account from which public debt may be paid off. GDP is a rather convoluted measure of output, not an expense account. Since the Federal government has assumed this debt on behalf of you and I (a whole OTHER issue), they (we) are responsible for paying it back. Therefore, since the government is on the hook, we need to be looking at the government’s revenues, not GDP when making judgments on the veracity of the government’s financial position.

In fiscal year 2009, the US Government had revenues of $2.198 Trillion. This was a decrease of $463 Billion from FY 2008 according to the Treasury’s Financial Report of the US Government report. The outstanding debt as of this writing is $12.87 Trillion making the debt/revenue ration 5.85. This is a whole lot worse (and much more accurate) than saying that debt is 90% of GDP. As bad as it is having an outstanding debt that is roughly 600% of revenue, it doesn’t even begin to address the issue of bankruptcy.

Debt Issuance

Marginal Utility of Debt Turns Negative

The underlying graphic has been seen in many different places, and with good reason. One of the biggest justifications of borrowing money in any situation is to cause growth. What has become apparent, however, over the past 5 decades is that the utility at the margin has diminished. What this means is that our ‘bang for the buck’ has disappeared. For example, back in 1966, a dollar of debt resulted in nearly $.90 in GDP growth. Today, adding a dollar of debt results in an over $.40 contraction in GDP. While this doesn’t have a direct bearing on national bankruptcy per se, what it is telling us is that our borrowing addiction is now cannibalizing economic growth. Small wonder. However, since economic output has a direct bearing on government revenues vis a vis tax receipts, the broken debt function will sit like an albatross upon our backs as we try to negotiate this brave new world.

We see evidence of the recognition of this reality in Washington as policymakers of varying stripes try to justify a value-added tax to close the gap and give the impression that we are, in fact, serious about austerity. No, this isn’t a joke. As usual, our government is making more colossal mistakes. Of course, real austerity would mean cutting government spending, but it should be clear to all that we will get nothing of the sort; from either bunch.

Marginal Utility of Debt

So, What Exactly is it that Constitutes Bankruptcy?

According to the Kotlikoff-Auerbach model, which is a variant of Irving Fisher’s Two Period Life Cycle Model work circa 1930, the current fiscal gap is approximately $185 Trillion. That number is a week old. Back in July of 2006, the fiscal gap stood at $65.9 Trillion. Anyone see a problem here? This gap analysis includes the full complement of social insurance programs including the new healthcare plan, military spending on wars for global empire, other domestic entitlements, and pretty much anything else you can think of that the Federal government might be involved in. The model looks at future revenues and outlays well into the future using current law and policy and uses the Net Present Value equation to bring the future amounts into present dollars.

To what extent will the Federal government be able to take the output of producers in the economy and dedicate it towards payment of these bills? We were cutting it very close when the number stood at $65.9 Trillion 4 years ago. Instead of addressing it then, we chose to do nothing. $185 Trillion is an unfathomable amount of money, especially for a government that takes in around 1/90 of that each year in tax revenue. And it is a lot for a country, whose total assets don’t even amount to 1/3 of our tab. Simply raising taxes won’t do it. The more marginal tax rates rise, the less incentive there will be to produce in following the old economic wisdom that you always get less of what you tax and more of what you subsidize. The historical landscape is littered with examples of how raising marginal tax rates actually causes tax revenues to decrease. So much for the idea of the VAT saving the day. Taking corporate profits won’t do it either. Raise taxes on corporations and they’ll lay off more employees, raise finished goods prices, and consumption will fall in proportion. So that isn’t going to work either.

An Undesirable Solution

The only real solution to this mess would be to essentially kill off Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits beyond what those programs actually take in each year on a cash basis. Going hand in hand would be the assumption that the contribution rates of these programs would remain the same. Pay 85% of benefits based on what the forecast is for the program’s revenue for a year, then give recipients a ‘catch-up’ payment at the end of year based what was actually taken in. Then start the next year with a clean slate. No unfunded liabilities. Period. At the same time, government would be turned into a flying gas can, being allowed to spend on only the barest of essentials.

Can you see the myriad of problems that lie in such a course of action? Forget the fact that it would be political suicide for anyone to propose this, which is the only reason I can get away with it – I’m not running for office. The culling of government would result in massive unemployment, with essentially no way to pay the benefits. The same would be true for private sector unemployment. The program cuts in social insurance would put most families over the edge since so many people rely on them. Ostensibly, we have no savings as a nation, with more than 4 in 10 having less than $10,000 set aside for retirement or any type of life emergency. In short, too many people rely on these programs making the social insurance Ponzi scheme too big to fail. At the same time, the sheer magnitude of these programs makes them too big to save.

Fundamentally, the question of American bankruptcy (or any for that matter) becomes the simple matter of looking at the bills that need to be paid and determining if they can in fact be paid. They certainly can’t be paid with revenues; we know that. We are already borrowing heavily and there is no indication that will change. Getting back to the earlier example of Family X, conventional analysis keeps telling us that some time uncertain, such a system arrives a point where there is simply not enough money in the system for external lenders to perpetuate it.

Points to Ponder

For all intents and purposes that has already in fact happened and the Fed is currently monetizing roughly 80% of Treasury auctions and bribing banks NOT to lend to the public by paying them interest on the reserves they keep at the Fed. This is all done to avoid what would normally turn into a hyperinflationary explosion. The bills cannot be paid. America is bankrupt. And we’re not alone. This is one of the reasons I wrote two weeks ago that we’re going to likely see a coordinated devaluation of currencies and then default as central banks slam the door on monetary creation. The monetary aggregates are already showing signs of this. It will not be pretty. At the same time expect more cuts in programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. The money will simply not exist to pay all the promised benefits. It will be an in situ default.

There will be those who will say that the above thesis is baloney and that it will be hyperinflation forever and ever. We are so much smarter than we were back in the 1930’s and we should have never allowed that nasty deflationary collapse to occur. However, the debt bubble that exists today on a global scale is several orders of magnitude larger than what existed back then and believe me, banks and governments knew back in the 1930’s about over-issuing paper currencies.

Our national history is littered with these little experiences of wanton money creation. They never ended well. However, looking at it through that lens, the 1930’s allowed the banking elite to ‘reset’ the system and squeeze another 70+ years out of an already broken monetary model. However, the only reason we made it this far is because the first 30 or so of those years we were giving away the national treasure in the form of our Gold to foreigners for the right be the consumers of the world. History doesn’t always repeat, but it sure does rhyme. I certainly don’t have a crystal ball (or inside info for that matter), but to me, the above thesis makes a good deal of sense especially given the untenable financial position we find ourselves in.

We already have what amounts to the sovereign debt equivalent of a commercial signal failure in the case of Greece, and it doesn’t take much thought to come up with the conclusion that nobody wants to step up and bail out an entire country and start the avalanche. It may well end up being that the default occurs for no other reason than it is the path that provides the least resistance.

The Greatest Show on Earth

For many years the title of ‘Greatest Show on Earth’ belonged to Ringling Brothers and its traveling circus. I had the pleasure of seeing the extravaganza for the first time about a year ago and was amazed at the talent of the performers, their skills, and the hours and hours of practice time that went into making everyone sit on the edge of their seats for the better part of two and a half hours. Unfortunately, they’re losing their title. Another circus has come to town which causes us all to be on the edge of our seats, displays little in the form of talent, and yet charges an exorbitant fee for attendance, which some might say is mandatory. Yes, we have our own three-ring circus in America today and it consists of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Treasury, and the Commerce Department – all overlaid by the mainstream media.

All joking aside, we’ve again reached the point of absurdity on so many fronts that instead of focusing in on a single topic, it is time to dedicate an entire issue to scanning the landscape in an attempt to make sense of the ludicrous.

Bureau of Labor Statistics – Ring #1

The monthly unemployment numbers were released last Friday by BLS and you could almost hear the clinking of the champagne glasses from the studio in the belly of the NASDAQ. Yes, the US only lost 36,000 jobs in February; good times must be just around the corner! Such a sham was this report that I actually dedicated an entire podcast to debunking it. The bottom line is that the jobs deficit for the month of February was around 350,000 jobs – nearly 10 times what BLS reported. This takes into account the 97,000 jobs mysteriously created by the birth/death model (completely unsubstantiated), the fact that our economy needs to create roughly 145,000 jobs each month just to break even in terms of population growth and new entrants to the work force, and finally the fact that most of the ‘new’ jobs created were temp jobs, a whole bunch of which were for the upcoming census.

Perhaps the most alarming part of this report was the revelation that 31,000 state and local government workers lost their jobs last month. These are the jobs most people make fun of, but would love to have because they’ve always been considered to be a job for life with a great pension. The paradigm is changing folks. Either recognize and deal with it or become cannon fodder for the new economic realities that are emerging. The days of borrow and spend are over; at least for the consumer. As you’ll see in the next section, the US Government apparently thinks it has an exemption from the laws of economics – and common sense.

The US Treasury – Ring #2

In the second ring, we have the US Treasury and its burgeoning FY2010 shortfall. So bad was FY2009’s shortfall that the report that outlines our actual financial position was delayed nearly 2 full months, FINALLY being released back on 2/26 to an absolutely comatose response from the belly of the NASDAQ. February’s outlay was massive, totally $220.9 billion. Much of it was blamed on stimulus spending, tax credits, and TARP outlays of $2.3 Billion (Yes, they’re still handing out TARP money). The media cooed about the Fed’s contribution to the US Treasury, but says nothing about the fact that every dollar in our system is loaned to us by those same loan sharks at interest. Ah, the conveniences of selective reporting. To date, the Treasury’s gap stands at a whopping $651.5 billion, which is around $65 billion ahead of last year’s record pace. If they maintain this pace for another seven months, we’ll have a cash basis shortfall for FY2010 of $1.563 trillion – around $132 billion more than FY2009.

Let’s consider for a second all the money that has been spent on stimulus and other projects. Let’s consider the trillions spent bailing out banks. Finally, let’s overlay all that spending with the grossly awful jobs report from last Friday and the months preceding it. How can anyone in their right mind call the stimulus anything but an abysmal failure? The problem is that the government cannot create jobs. Simple. Yes, the government can pay people to perform services. They can pay for a guy to fill potholes. (Send someone to Pennsylvania while you’re at it please; I’ve seen some potholes here that are bigger than these new ‘mini’ cars everyone seems to want.) Once the potholes are filled, then what? Once the bridge is built, then what? Once the census is finished, then what? It all comes down to sustainability. None of the money that is being spent in ‘stimulus’ is being spent on anything that can sustain itself. It cannot pay for itself. How is an $8000 housing tax credit going to pay for itself? The consumer will take the $8000, spend it and create a temporary boost. Then what? This is why I’ve said for many months now that additional stimulus would be needed. And it will need to continue ad infinitum unless our policymakers wise up and start implementing policies that would foster genuine growth, provide for a return of manufacturing to the US, and create sustainable economic growth. Unfortunately, that just isn’t in the ringmasters’ plan. The new tactic in Washington is to devise stimulus packages, but call them anything but, as if somehow changing the name really makes a difference.

The Commerce Department – Ring #3

Not to be outdone we have the Commerce Department, and more specifically the Census Bureau, in the third ring. This morning’s release of retail sales data will no doubt serve to thoroughly confuse anyone who pays attention to such matters. Granted, it is extremely hard to reconcile, but one must look just in the opening statement of the release to get a window into what is really going on here. Repetition notwithstanding, it must be noted (again) that retail sales are reported in nominal terms. From this morning’s release:

“The US Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of US retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day difference, but not for price changes, were $355.5 billion…”

It would be much more useful, albeit challenging to accomplish, if these numbers were reported in units as opposed to dollars. But we can do some reasonable discounting on our own. The ‘headline’ retail sales number was up .3%. Ignore for a second that the media takes sales ex-autos when that shows a bigger gain or smaller loss. Basically, whichever number is better is the one they’ll focus on. While we don’t yet have February’s CPI, let’s assume the headline is .2%-.3%, which is pretty much in line with what has been reported over the past half year. That pretty much wipes out the headline gain. Our internal metric was .55% for February, which when applied to the headline number would take it to a .25% contraction.

Of course, you’ll never hear this from the belly of the NASDAQ. You’ll be lead to believe that all is well, consumers are tripping over each other to spend money, and that a return to the boom times of 2005 can only be a few short months around the corner. While that would be nice, it would be extremely irresponsible to predict such an occurrence based on the evidence that now lies before us.

Some potentially useful tidbits of information from the report are presented below. It must be noted that these useful bits of information can be gleaned from each month’s report for monitoring purposes.

- Seasonal Adjustments added $38 billion or 12.28% to February’s total.

- Removing the seasonal adjustments, retail sales fell in February from $321.8 billion to $316.7 billion; a change of $5.1 billion or 1.59%

- Gasoline station sales are up 26.4% in the last year.

- The 3.7% jump in electronic and appliance stores comes in concurrence with several states doing ‘cash for appliances’ type programs. See Iowa as an example. The state gave away nearly $200 million in funds to such a program. While that may not sound like a lot, it accounts for nearly all of February’s gain for the sector. And that is just Iowa. I realize this is highly anecdotal in nature, but these are the types of things that can skew reporting and promulgate false assumptions so I’m bringing it up.

- The data for MARTS (Monthly Retail and Food Services Survey) is gathered by sending surveys to 5000 businesses. The responding firms’ data accounts for nearly 65% of the national monthly sales estimates.

- The estimates use the 90% confidence level. If the range established by the use of this level includes zero, then the change is not statistically significant. The headline number was .3% with a range of ±.5%, meaning that zero lies in the range, and therefore this month’s retail sales change from last month is not statistically significant. The December 2009 – January 2010 change of .1% with a range of ±.3% was also not statistically significant. Put simply, retail sales are just as likely to have been flat or even negative as they were to gain .3%.

Obviously the points above are enough to cast serious doubt on the veracity of consumer spending. When one overlays the jobs situation, relatively stagnant incomes, and other factors over top of this, it would seem fairly likely that this report represents something of an outlier. It is also instructive to note the role that borrowed government spending plays in skewing the numbers as in the case of cash for clunkers last year, homebuyer tax credits, and now cash for appliances. Also not commonly known is that Medicare spending also counts as part of retail sales. So if Medicare pays for a knee replacement for your uncle, that counts as retail sales and is parlayed as consumer spending.

Sorry Ringling Brothers, but the government-media complex, which puts out and then appropriately spins the numbers and information has stolen your title of “Greatest Show on Earth”; and they’ve done it hands down.

This month’s issue of the Centsible Investor will be released on Monday, March 15th. It will contain an in-depth analysis of the recent Treasury report on the financial condition of the US, a look at current trends in gasoline production and consumption in light of predictions of $3.50/gallon gas this summer, and a comprehensive study of a rather successful petroleum transportation operation. Plus, we’ll do our usual cutting-edge analysis of the major stock indexes and plot the course for the markets over the next few weeks. For more information, Click Here

Uncle Sam Tops the Goods-Producing Sector

Published on: 01/07/2010
Categories: Uncategorized
Comments: No Comments

Yes, you read it right. I’ve been railing on this point for years now. We’ve needed to rebuild our crumbling manufacturing and goods-producing sector, yet it is Big Government who is doing all the hiring. So much so that there are now more people working for Big Government than there are in all goods-producing industries – COMBINED.

What does this mean? It means more reliance on foreigners for everything from food to fuel, to consumer trinkets. It means larger trade deficits (since you can’t export government – although it would really be nice to export the whole doggone thing right now!), and further pressure on the US Dollar.

« page 4 of 6 »

Welcome , today is Friday, 05/18/2012