Tags: gold

France Downgraded by S&P

Editor’s Note: As long as the bankers don’t get their way, the downgrades and raids on national treasuries / economies will continue. When they bankers get their way, the pain stops. Just go back and take a look at the chronology of what has happened over the past several years and it becomes very obvious.

Standard & Poor’s has downgraded France’s credit rating, French TV reported Friday, while several other euro zone countries face the same fate later in the day, according to reports.

Germany and the Netherlands aren’t among those facing a downgrade, a senior euro zone government source told Reuters. Another source confirmed “several” countries would be hit.

“Remain alert tonight when U.S. markets close,” said another euro zone source.

US stocks slumped in reaction to the report that S&P had downgraded France. European shares also extended their decline.

In December, S&P placed the ratings of 15 euro zone countries on credit watch negative— including those of top-rated Germany and France, the region’s two biggest economies—and said “systemic stresses” were building up as credit conditions tighten in the 17-nation bloc.

Since then, the European Central Bank has flooded the banking system with cheap three-year money to avert a credit crunch. At the time, the U.S.-based ratings agency said it could also downgrade the euro zone’s current bailout fund, the EFSF.

“The consequence (if France is downgraded) is that the EFSF cannot keep its triple-A rating,” said Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer.

“That may irritate markets in the short term but wouldn’t be a big problem in a world where the U.S. and Japan also don’t have a triple-A rating anymore. Triple-A is a dying species,” he said.

S&P has said that if a downgrade did materialize, countries such as Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg would likely see ratings cuts of only one notch.

The other nine countries—most notably triple A-rated France—could suffer downgrades of up to two notches.

A spokesperson for S&P in Paris declined to comment on the reports. A French financy ministry spokesperson was not immediately available for comment.

John Wraith, Fixed Income Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch told CNBC the confirmation of a mass downgrade would be another serious step in the crisis and would lead to a serious worsening of sentiment.

“To a large degree it’s widely anticipated,” Wraith said. “However, we think the reality of it is going to have a knock-on, ongoing impact on these markets.”

“It clearly deteriorates still further the credit worthiness of a lot of the European banks and just keeps that negative feedback loop between struggling banks and the sovereigns that may have to support them if things go from bad to worse in full force,” Wraith added.

A downgrade could automatically require some investment funds to sell bonds of affected states, making those countries’ borrowing costs rise still further.

“It’s been priced in for several weeks, but the market had been lulled into complacency over the holidays, and the new year began with a bounce in risk appetite, thanks partly to a good Spanish auction,” said Samarjit Shankar, Director Of Global Fx Strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston.

“But the Italian auction brought us back to earth and now we face the spectre of further downgrades.”

Italy’s three-year debt costs fell below 5 percent on Friday but its first bond sale of the year failed to match the success of a Spanish auction the previous day, reflecting the heavy refinancing load Rome faces over the next three months.

 

Businesses Prep for Death Spiral of Euro

International companies are preparing contingency plans for a possible break-up of the eurozone, according to interviews with dozens of multinational executives.

Concerned that Europe’s political leaders are failing to control the spreading sovereign debt crisis, business executives say they feel compelled to protect their companies against a crash that can no longer be wished away. When German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy raised the prospect of a Greek exit from the eurozone earlier this month, it marked the first time that senior European officials had dared to question the permanence of their 13-year-old experiment with monetary union.

“We’ve started thinking what [a break-up] might look like,” Andrew Morgan, president of Diageo Europe, said on Tuesday. “If you get some much bigger kind of … change around the euro, then we are into a different situation altogether. With countries coming out of the euro, you’ve got massive devaluation that makes imported brands very, very expensive.”

Executives’ concerns are emerging as eurozone finance ministers weigh ever more radical options to tackle the sovereign debt crisis, including the possibility of funnelling European Central Bank loans to struggling countries via the International Monetary Fund.

Car manufacturers, energy groups, consumer goods firms and other multinationals are taking care to minimise risks by placing cash reserves in safe investments and controlling non-essential expenditure. Siemens, the engineering group, has even established its own bank in order to deposit funds with the European Central Bank.

Traders prepare for endgame

Urgent action has long been the mantra of investors in the eurozone crisis. But for them, policymakers have seemed more interested in buying time, writes Richard Milne in London .

That some politicians now appear to be coming round to markets’ sense of timing coincides with heightened chatter on trading floors not just of foreign investors shunning eurozone assets but also of the prospect of a break-up of the euro.

This week is seen as a crucial one by many investors, because of bond auctions by Italy, Spain, Belgium and France.

Many market participants are convinced the ultimate play – “the one minute to midnight” scenario for some – is of the European Central Bank buying government bonds in huge quantities. “I don’t know how close we are to midnight, but it’s awfully dark outside,” one says.

Some are examining expert advice on the legal consequences of a eurozone split for cross-border commercial contracts and loan agreements. By contrast, most small and medium-sized firms have made few, if any financial and legal preparations.

“Market participants and, increasingly, real businesses are pricing in a break-up scenario,” said Jean Pisani-Ferry, director of the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank. “It is still hard to think the unthinkable, let alone to work out the details of it, but any rational player has to consider the possibility of it.”

Some businesses with global reach say a euro break-up would be grim but manageable. “We have made a first rough analysis about the consequences of the discontinuation of the euro as the Portuguese currency,” said Jürgen Dieter Hoffmann, finance director at Volkswagen Autoeuropa, the German carmaker’s Portuguese arm. “The conclusion is that overall the impact would not be so negative to our company, as we are mainly an exporter and belong to a worldwide group.”

Some French, Italian and Spanish executives say they have plans in place for severe financial and economic turbulence, but not specifically for a euro break-up. The risk, in their eyes, is that the region’s stability might come under even greater threat if it became known that companies were contemplating the worst.

Additional reporting by Peter Wise in Lisbon, James Wilson in Frankfurt and Alex Barker in Brussels

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share using our article tools.
Please don’t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

 

The Coup Continues – Andy Sutton

Early last December, I wrote a piece entitled ‘Crisis or Coup?’ in which the anatomy of the 2008 financial crisis was analyzed in further detail and some conclusions drawn. These conclusions were drawn based on facts and actions, not opinions. It was obvious at the time that the USFed and our own government were acting not in the best interests of the people, but rather in the best interests of banks and large corporations. Crony capitalism, as it has often been called – where profits are kept and losses are written off or passed on to the ‘Plebeians’ of a particular society – ramped into high gear in the US. Remember the fact that the absurd financial structure that is in place was the ‘solution’ to a crisis, which had the fingerprints of the solution providers all over it.

Fast forward one year and the same mechanism is firmly in place again and working very well – this time in Europe. Again, the abuse of debt has been the main villain. Couple that to greed, avarice, and unlimited access to power and you’re going to have problems. EU2010 is no different than USA2008 on a fundamental level. The only difference is the consumer-driven side of the Eurozone didn’t cause problems first – the sovereign issues roared to the forefront.

And what is happening to those leaders in the countries that are balking what are essentially multiple coup d’ etats? They’re summarily dismissed. George Papandreou in Greece has been replaced by Lucas Papdemos, a rabid central banker (ECB). Silvio Berlusconi in Italy is out, replaced (likely) by Mario Monti, a guy who has all sorts of insidious connections to the Rockefeller/Rothschild global banking syndicate. Aka, the same syndicate that is gutting America through its creature from Jekyll Island, the federal reserve system itself.

So two countries’ leaders toppled, and what of Portugal? Interestingly enough, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva has evidently learned how he is supposed to behave from the demise of Berlusconi and Papandreou. He is now a card-carrying water carrier for the syndicate. Check out his quote made on 11/10/11:

“The European Central Bank has to go beyond a narrow interpretation of its mission and should be prepared for foreseeable intervention in the secondary market, not as the central bank has done up to now,” Cavaco Silva said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. He said government leaders are unlikely to move fast enough to find solutions.

“It has to be able to be a lender of last resort,” said Cavaco Silva, 72, who as Portugal’s prime minister presided over the 1992 signing of the Maastricht Treaty, which cleared the way for the euro common currency. “It has to be a foreseeable, unlimited intervention.”

The coup in Portugal has been effectively completed. Some people may question why I use the term coup d’ etat. The term essentially means takeover of a formerly sovereign nation in the context we most often see it in. Oftentimes, coups are military in nature with a rebel force conducting a coup to remove an existing government. Well, a financial coup is along the same lines where the control of a country’s financial system and/or its economy is taken from the people of that nation by a banking cartel or syndicate. The very creation of the EU itself was a mini-coup since those countries that entered gave up a large portion of their sovereignty and put their destiny in the hands of a regional government and central bank. These countries could no longer issue their own debt and when things got bad, then couldn’t maneuver, and are now at the whimsy of international banksters.

Don’t forget what Silva is really saying above, either. By making the ECB the lender of last resort, what he is advocating is that the ECB becomes owner of the failing countries within the Eurozone. This is precisely what is happening in America now: that the federal reserve is openly monetizing USGovt debt. Few take the next step and make the admission that in doing this, the federal reserve is becoming an owner of this country – and it is getting a larger share with every bond it buys. And all this happens with the blessing of the US Congress and various Parliaments in Europe. The dominoes are falling one by one into the complete financial and economic control of international bankers. These are men without a country, but men who seek to dominate all countries.

One thing forgotten in all this is that the USA is indeed headed for the second stage of its continuing financial crisis, this time in the form of a sovereign debt nightmare that will make 2008 look like a game of Monopoly. No doubt there will be calls for the federal reserve to again be the lender of last resort and another chunk of America will fall to the syndicate. These nasty cycles will continue until it is all gone. Sounds pretty gloomy doesn’t it? Just look at what has happened so far and then ask yourself if we’ve turned in another direction or are just headed for more of the same.

At the end of the day, hopefully we will all come to realize that we can gripe all we want about what has taken place thus far and what is to come, but sooner or later we are going to have to own up to the fact that we allowed it. Bankers couldn’t have packaged hundreds of billions of dollars of junk mortgage bonds and leveraged it up 40:1 if people who had no business buying a house hadn’t done so. Sure the system enabled it all, but I have not heard a single case of an American citizen having a gun put to their head and being forced to buy a house or participate in some other sort of largesse.

We have allowed our elected officials to cede our national sovereignty to bankers while we argue about steroids in baseball, American Idol, and the fate of various Hollywood lawbreakers. We were so busy swiping our credit cards that nobody paid attention to the fact that our government was doing the exact same thing – on a grandiose scale, its ego writing checks that the people of this country can never pay.

We did it all voluntarily. So have the Europeans. Nobody was complaining when the welfare state was in full swing and sloth and laziness were incentivized on a regional scale. Nary a word was said when exceptions were made so that Greece could enter the EU in the first place. Nobody paid any attention when it became obvious several years ago that the numbers weren’t adding up. The whole EU was too busy partying.

I’d like to leave you with a quote from a wise man in American history – Thomas Jefferson:

“The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks
discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.”

Startling isn’t it? Look around you; his worst nightmare is becoming our reality – on a global scale.

Italy: Too Big to Fail or Too Big to Save?

Italy’s economic problems took center stage Monday as its government, led by increasingly threatened Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, faced yet another key vote.

The health of the euro zone’s third-largest economy has come into focus despite Berlusconi accepting IMF monitoring and surviving several confidence votes in recent months.

Italy’s size makes the potential consequences if it were to fail more wide-ranging than the much smaller Greece.

“Italy has much more systemic implications,” Thanos Vamvakidis, Head of European G10 FX Strategy, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, told CNBC Monday.

“It’s too big to fail, too big to save.”

The problems facing Italy include the euro zone’s second-highest debt-to-GDP ratio, and the lack of a credible alternative to Berlusconi’s government.

Italian MPs will vote Tuesday on the country’s public finances, with a number of rebel MPs from Berlusconi’s party threatening to vote against the government in protest at the way it has managed the country’s finances.

Yields on Italian 10-year bonds surged last week, and are now dangerously close to the unsustainable 7 percent level. Other euro zone countries such as Portugal and Ireland had to seek bailouts after their yields rose to over 7 percent.

“The markets don’t believe Berlusconi,” said Vamvakadis.

“When other countries were faced with pressure, they introduced more reforms. In Italy, you don’t have a clear structural reform agenda.”

Yields on short-term 2-year Italian bonds have also been surging.

“When yields on short-term debt start increasing at a faster pace than long-term debt you have a problem on your hands because it signals that investors have no faith that you can pay back the money you owe,” Kathleen Brooks, research director UK EMEA at Forex.com, wrote in a research note. “It looks like Italy has gone for the bailout-lite option, but will it need to go the whole hog? The bond markets certainly think so, and it could happen sooner than we think.”

There were also signals that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not continue its bond-buying program, which has helped keep bond yields at sustainable levels since the summer. Yves Mersch, a member of the central bank’s Governing Council, warned in an interview with Italian newspaper La Stampa on Sunday that it could stop buying Italian bonds if Italy fails to take appropriate action over its debt.

“They are trying to put maximum pressure on the Italian government to deliver,” said Vamvakidis.

“It’s a risky move but I think it’s the right decision at this point.”

“It is probably only the ECB’s SMP (Securities Markets Program) program that has prevented Italian bond yields from climbing to even more punitive levels,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a research note. “So it will be a test of ECB firepower and will to keep Italian bond yields under control while the Greek story boils over.”

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued a strong warning to the Italian government over the weekend.

“We will go quarterly [to Italy],” she told reporters.

“We will check that what Italy has promised Italy is delivering. And if it is not delivering I will say so.”

TWIST & Shout – Andy Sutton

The mainstream media is abuzz this morning, Wednesday September 21st, about the federal reserve, who is once again plotting to save the USEconomy from certain disaster. Really, haven’t we heard this many times before? If it was that easy, shouldn’t it have been done a few years ago when all the problems started? If that is the case, we’ve got little more than a bunch of incompetent bankers on our hands. That is bad enough. However, I think most people are starting to understand that it is much worse a problem than just plain vanilla incompetence. It is about collusion and corruption and I am being very generous in that assessment.

The Latest Ploy

The fed is expected to announce this week that it is going to reach back 50 years into its bag of tricks and pull out some manipulations that will save us. This latest cockamamie scheme is to shift its $1.7 Trillion in short term USBond holdings (monetized debt) to longer-term holdings in an effort to drive down the long end of the yield curve even further. Apparently, the current monetization efforts haven’t been good enough. They have been driving the long end down for three years now, either directly through direct rate intervention or by subsidies aimed at the end products resulting from those rates such as mortgages.

The obvious rationale is that driving down rates on debt will rescue the economy, since people will be able to take on even more debt to spend more money on more imported trinkets from China and elsewhere. Again, haven’t we heard this before? We still haven’t really felt the full impact from the last raft of malfeasance when the fed went on an overt $600 Billion bond-buying spree. For those who haven’t yet connected the dots, that is called monetization of debt. A very inflationary measure. The dollar has paid the price. Don’t be fooled by the ridiculous assertions that the dollar is ‘stronger’ because the dollar index has gone up. The only reason that has happened at all is because Europe is on the brink of total collapse and disintegration. There is no way anyone can conduct a sane examination of the dollar’s fundamentals and conclude there is anything that represents ‘strength’ at this point. At best it is status quo and the capitalization of another’s even more dire circumstances.

On the surface, all this might look very appealing. Lower interest rates across the board. Sure, there will be another wave of refinancing of mortgages. If you can qualify. If you’re not underwater. Maybe. The subsidies aimed at the housing market so far have been an absolute and total failure. That dog won’t hunt anymore. Game over for real estate for at least a decade. So as usual, we’re left to ask Cui bono? Who benefits. Well the bankers of course. The fed dropped short-term rates into the basement in 2008 and has held the hammer down. This punished savers around the country. All those baby boomers who are retired/retiring (maybe) are going to need income from their meager savings to make up for the rising prices that have resulted from the fed’s malfeasance and lack of stewardship of the dollar. They won’t get much in the way of income from traditional low-risk investment vehicles, that is for sure. The proverbial ‘riskless’ asset pays nothing after taxes. Nothing. And it isn’t riskless. Put it another way – would you be willing to give the USGovt a loan for 90 days? 180? 10 years? How about 30 years? At maybe 2.5% per annum? That is a foolish proposition on even the best of days. The savers get creamed again. Bernanke is so worried about the economy, but yet he’ll purposefully and deliberately undertake policies that will gut the one component of the economy that is capable of spurring growth – savers. And this is not the first time either. And he is not the first guy to do it. This has been a pattern for quite a long time now.

The All-Important Question – Cui Bono?

So who benefits again? The banks, obviously. The lower the yield curve, the higher the spread, the higher the profit margin. All actions done so far have been to protect and enrich the banks and their precious financial system – all at the expense of the economy and all done intentionally, in my opinion, with malice and aforethought. Just think back to TARP, TALF, TSLF, and the other multi-trillion dollar rescue packages. Think about the $500 billion (minimum) in swaps done between the fed and the ECB in 2008-09 that Bernanke was grilled on and claimed not to know the recipients thereof. Think about the latest harebrained stunt aimed at saving European banks. More unlimited dollar bailouts for foreign banks. More protection of the financial oligarchy. More inflation. Less purchasing power for the dollar. More pain for consumers. Less economic growth.

At the bottom of this issue is that the Keynesian way is still in full force, which guarantees that things will not get any better. Two of the biggest pillars of the Keynesian way are to punish savers because saving is a bad activity – all monies should be spent on consumption to maximize current ‘growth’. Never mind future growth; all actions are to be geared towards the short run. The second big pillar is deficit spending and debt accumulation at all levels of the economy. Again, forget about the long-term consequences. All focus is dedicated to the short run. That is the Keynesian way in a nutshell.

The Consequences

We’re already seeing firsthand the catastrophic failure of that policy pathway in Europe. It is an unmitigated disaster. We’ll reap the full whirlwind here in America before too long. Instead of focusing on debt reduction across the board, the central planners, our new economic politburo, are undertaking policies that will accelerate debt accumulation at all levels. Consumers are back on the credit card big time as unemployment remains high and people are forced to continue borrowing to make ends meet. They were in over their heads to begin with and now for many, there is no way out. The house is underwater. The job is gone. The unemployment check isn’t enough and it is going to run out soon anyway. These people end up running full speed to the bankers who are more than willing to accommodate with rates of usury that would make the mafia blush.

The ‘cuts’ that are forthcoming from our new unconstitutional ‘super congress’ will almost certainly be from social programs, not the sacred cows such as the Pentagon budget, bank bailout monies, or subsidies paid for keeping jobs out of America. The lobbyists have already guaranteed that. I’ll say it again – the American people are the only ones who don’t have someone lobbying for them to the members of that ill-conceived and very illegal group. It is terribly ironic that the one group who is going to bear the full burden of all of this does not even have one representative in the process. We know what Jefferson said about that. If we don’t, then shame on us for not knowing our history.

The bottom line is that our debt is already unpayable. Our bonds are junk. Our country is several orders of magnitude deeper into this mess than Greece. According to Laurence Kotlikoff, the net present value of our obligations relative to GDP is 14 times greater. Greece’s multiple is only 12. Yet we had people surprised when our debt rating was cut by one single notch. It was an affront to our perception of American superiority. That is gone, people. We’ve allowed it to be squandered – all for the satisfaction of short-run desires and an economic philosophy that was brought into the world in the worst possible manner: half improvised, half compromised. The policymakers of the day provided the compromise; Keynes was more than happy to provide the rest. In a way, he got off easy; his demise came long before that of a world that decided to throw away prudence in pursuit of his unattainable utopia.

Banks Try to Stave off Euro Crisis with ‘Unlimited’ Loans

Fears of a deepening of Europe‘s debt crisis have prompted the world’s leading central banks to pump US dollars into the financial system, in a co-ordinated action designed to boost market confidence.

The Bank of England joined the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan on Thursday to announce that they would flood money markets with dollars over the coming months.

The move, on the third anniversary of the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, sent shares soaring in banks heavily exposed to debt default by Greece and the other struggling members of the 17-nation eurozone. The euro, which had been falling in recent days, rebounded, rising roughly 1% in European trading on Thursday.

Speaking in Washington, Christine Lagarde, the president of the International Monetary Fund, said: “They [the banks] are getting together and acting together. To me, that is the most important message.”

Lagarde warned that more action was needed.

“We have entered into a dangerous phase of the crisis,” she said. There is still a path to recovery, Lagarde said, but it is a “narrow” one.

Under the terms of the deal, banks will be able to bid for unlimited amounts of US dollars at fixed interest rates in three separate auctions. The first of these will be on 12 October.

Nick Parsons, head of strategy at National Australia Bank, said the decision to provide unlimited liquidity well into 2012 was a big show of support to the global banking system.

But he added: “If Greece were to default, an announcement that there would be unlimited liquidity available from central banks is one of the things you would want to have in place beforehand.”

The move comes as Europe’s finance ministers gather in Wroclaw, Poland, for a meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council, known as Ecofin. US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner is set to address the meeting for the first time, and is expected to call for decisive action.

Putting further pressure on Europe’s finance ministers, the European Commission cut its growth forecast for the euro area for the rest of they year.

The commission predicted Europe would barely avoid a double-dip recession, and that growth would come to a “virtual standstill” towards the end of the year.

Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Analytics, said the move to pump dollars into the system would help in the short term, but all eyes were still on the meeting of European finance ministers.

“It’s not a cure; it’s a temporary palliative,” said Faucher. “The big question is: is this enough in the short term to get us to a longer term solution? There is a potential for a really huge financial crisis in Europe. Things are bad now, but they could get a lot worse.”

Hedge fund billionaire George Soros said the Euro crisis looked “more intractable” than the 2008 financial crisis. Writing in the New York Review of Books, Soros said it was “imperative to prepare for the possibility of default and defection from the eurozone in the case of Greece, Portugal, and perhaps Ireland.”

He said massive political changes were needed in Europe, including the establshment of a European Treasury, ” to forestall a possible financial meltdown and another Great Depression.”

In London, the FTSE 100 index closed up 110 points at 5337, over 2%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index gained even in the face of poor economic figures.

Bloomberg (After Prompting) Comes Clean on Margin Hikes

Editor’s Note: After allowing the alternative media to break the story about margin hikes in Shanghai and another round of increases by CME, Bloomberg finally mentions this fact as a driver in the ongoing correction in gold. One can only wonder if the info would have seen the light of day had we and several others not broken this information.

Gold fell, heading for the biggest three-day drop in almost three years, as demand for riskier assets eroded the appeal of the precious metal as a haven.

Gold futures rose as much as 18 percent this month, touching an all-time high of $1,917.90 an ounce on Aug. 23 before erasing most of the gains. The value of a 100-ounce futures contract in New York plunged $10,400 yesterday, more than the $7,425 margin requirement that day, prompting exchange owner CME Group Inc. to increase the minimum cash deposit on trades. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index headed for a weekly gain after a 16 percent decline in the previous four weeks.

“It looks nasty, but this is a normal correction given the magnitude of the move,” Matt Zeman, a strategist at Kingsview Financial in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The parabolic move finally collapsed. You’ve got a return to risk appetite, and that’s taken the wind out of gold’s sails.”

Gold futures for December delivery fell $20.40, or 1.2 percent, to $1,736.90 at 10:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York. A close at that price would leave the most-active contract down 8.2 percent in the past three sessions, the biggest slump since October 2008. In London, gold for immediate deliver was down $23, or 1.3 percent, at $1,736.32.

The metal is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. Central banks are adding to reserves for the first time in a generation, joining billionaire investors including John Paulson in hoarding bullion. The Federal Reserve has taken the unprecedented step of saying it will keep borrowing costs at almost zero percent at least through mid-2013 to support the economy.

‘Not Safe’

“Gold is a trade, gold is a position, gold is volatile, but gold is not safe,” Dennis Gartman, an economist, wrote today in his Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter. “The public is involved in gold, and the cab drivers of the world have bought into it. Now they are being taken out, at high cost.”

The Chicago-based CME raised margin requirements after gold futures surged to a record this month and then plunged the most since March 2008. The minimum cash deposit required to trade Comex futures will rise 27 percent to $9,450 per contract in the speculative Tier 1 category at the close of trading today, CME said late yesterday. The maintenance margin will rise to $7,000 from $5,500. The Shanghai Gold Exchange said Aug. 23 it will hike margins from settlement today.

“In our opinion, the margin is not nearly high enough yet,” Gartman said. “Proper margining would seem to be closer to $15,000 per contract.” Given the volatility in trading, “the exchange needs to protect itself and its clients” from the possibility of a large speculator or two putting “the exchange into jeopardy,” he said.

Speculator Holdings

Speculators held a net 218,403 futures and options contracts by Aug. 16, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Positions reached 253,653 contracts by Aug. 2, the most since at least 2006, the data show. The CFTC will update its tally tomorrow.

The 10-day historical volatility for gold futures jumped to 41 percent, the highest level since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Following CME’s margin increases, silver slumped as much as 35 percent in about three weeks from April 25, when the metal touched a 31-year high of $49.845 an ounce on the Comex.

Gold’s surge and decline is similar to silver’s earlier this year, John Roque, WJB Capital Group’s senior technical analyst, said in a note to clients.

“Gold has some support at $1,700, but it wouldn’t surprise us to see the metal retest its last breakout level at $1,580,” Roque said.

Gold is still trading above its 200-, 100- and 50-day moving averages. The price is below the 20-day moving average of $1,743.50.

Silver futures for December delivery rose $1.004, or 2.6 percent, to $40.205 on the Comex.

Pure Media Bias on Gold – Andy Sutton

Bloomberg News has been cheered in recent months for several ‘movements’ in quasi-honest reporting, most notably a recent article on the $1.2 Trillion (at a bare minimum) that went to the global aristocracy from the US fed at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. The very fact that this slice of men without a country profited so insanely from the crisis should give most people a pretty good idea of how contrived the crisis was to begin with.

Bloomberg was also credited with filing various FOIA requests in an effort to force the US fed to disclose recipients of various emergency loans. These minor victories for the truth may have gone a long way towards giving this news outlet a clean bill of health in people’s minds and an A+ on the objectivity stress test. Nothing could be further from the truth.

On a day when gold has dropped over $100 or almost 5.5%, investors went looking for the reasons why the correction has been so severe. Certainly the market was due for a correction; it had come a long way in a very short time for some very good fundamental reasons. However, even the strongest bull market is not without pullbacks and this one was due. That is not, however, what caused the panic selling that has taken place. The overreaction was caused by another series of margin hikes, this time in the Chinese gold markets. Margins were raised to 12% starting this Friday. Rewind a few months and remember what CME did to silver with a series of margin hikes. The obvious fear is that margin hike fever will again spread back to US markets and CME will get back into the act – which they did – effective at close of business on 8/25/11.

However, what investors found on Bloomberg was an assortment of invectives against gold, how ‘stability’ in the global financial system – aka we haven’t had a crisis yet this week – and a strong US manufacturing report all contributed to the rout. Let’s take a look at some quotes from today’s ‘wall of shame’ article, which can be found by clicking the link. Bloomberg has a habit of updating and revising articles and as such I have saved the original version in PDF format for later reference if necessary.

“This is liquidation from a crowded trade,” (name redacted), a senior market strategist at MF Global Holdings Ltd. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “In the short run, there’s more optimism and that doesn’t bode well for gold. Investors have been using gold more as a fear barometer than a proxy for inflation.”

Obviously senior market strategists aren’t required to know even the most basic workings of the market that they claim to have expert knowledge of. Certainly the latter half of this statement has some truth to it, but why no mention of the margin hikes? If this guy did mention it and it wasn’t printed, he’s got a good reason to be hopping mad about it, because the omission makes him look incredibly incompetent.

“This is just pure panic selling” (name redacted), the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Before today, gold’s 14-day relative strength had been above 70 since Aug. 8, a signal to technical traders that prices are poised to fall.

Again, there is a nugget of truth here; there has been near panic selling, but again, no mention of the margin hikes. The comments allude to the fact that the decline is based on technical factors alone.

“Gold got pushed up on the idea that Bernanke will announce further quantitative easing,” (name redacted), a commodity market specialist at Scotia Capital, said in a telephone interview. “Now people are not so sure whether that will happen and that is creating disappointment in the gold market.”

Funny, Big Ben slammed the door several times on the idea of further overt QE, albeit leaving it open on other occasions, yet gold has rallied anyway despite the general inconsistency of his comments and an unclear picture of how much more the central bank is willing to bury the dollar in the short term. The Jackson Hole meeting this week might provide some clarity in that regard, but odds are probably even that we’ll know about as much then about monetization plans moving forward as we know now.

To Bloomberg’s minor credit, there was one ‘contrarian’ viewpoint printed at the very end of the article, but long after the central point of the piece had been well established:

The decline may be a buying opportunity to some investors, said
(name redacted), who manages $200 million at TEAM Financial Management in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. 
“A lot of traders and investors who are long-term bullish on gold sold out hoping for a correction because of how much it went up,” said (name redacted). “The drivers remain intact. The toughest thing to do is stay invested during the various parabolas and sit through the corrections.”

Again, through the entire piece, there was not a single mention of the Shanghai Gold Market’s margin hikes, which will take effect this Friday. I guess it is possible that Bloomberg journalists might not know about this supposed subtlety in the gold market, but they talked to a minimum of 4 market ‘experts’ and I simply refuse to believe that none of these folks knew about this. It would appear that this is nothing more than another thinly veiled attempt to shuck and jive the public into thinking that gold is not a viable alternative to eroding paper currencies and a safe haven from foolish monetary and fiscal policies that span the globe.

Getting away from the media bias for a second, there are some obvious reasons why the paper establishment would like to knock down gold prices. First, the establishment has been playing a losing game for a decade now, putting up battles at critical junctures until market pressures forced prices higher. This has been going on for more than ten years now. The argument regarding speculators is really getting tired and worn out. It is very likely that another round of public easing is about to take place (the covert easing never stopped by the way) and the central banks of the world would certainly prefer that gold launch from $1,750 as opposed to $1,950, for example. And finally, central banks, hedge funds, and all those people who bash gold love the actual metal and bought more of it in the first half of this year than they bought during all of 2010. They’d like more and if they can use paper charades to knock down the price of physical so they can accumulate, then that is exactly what they will do. The Chinese would certainly like more ounces for their flagging dollar reserves that they desperately want no part of.

So we have folks with means, motive, and opportunity. You might think the news is all bad. It isn’t. I talk to many people who complain that gold has gotten too expensive, which has hampered their ability to accumulate. Guess what? It just went on sale. What we don’t know is what the final discount will be or how long the sale will last. You again have an opportunity to trade in the ultimate wasting asset – the US dollar – for real money and get more ounces for your paper. Not a single fundamental has changed. So there hasn’t been a crisis in Europe this week. So what? Nothing has been fixed there – or here. So, Bloomberg and its shenanigans notwithstanding, today’s action is positive for buyers of physical precious metals and adds another chapter what I dubbed back in 2008 as the opportunity of a lifetime.

Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion From Fed

 

 

 

 

 

 

Editor’s Note: We tried to tell people about this three years ago. Nobody wanted to believe that the housing ‘crisis’ and resulting credit mess was nothing more than a thinly veiled bank robbery. However, contrary to popular opinion, it wasn’t the federal reserve bank that got robbed; it was the American people. it continues to amaze us how people couldn’t care less. This lack of concern only guarantees that they’ll be back for another round.

Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.

By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. The largest borrower, Morgan Stanley (MS), got as much as $107.3 billion, while Citigroup took $99.5 billion and Bank of America $91.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress.

“These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.”

Foreign Borrowers

It wasn’t just American finance. Almost half of the Fed’s top 30 borrowers, measured by peak balances, were European firms. They included Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, which took $84.5 billion, the most of any non-U.S. lender, and Zurich-based UBS AG (UBSN), which got $77.2 billion. Germany’s Hypo Real Estate Holding AG borrowed $28.7 billion, an average of $21 million for each of its 1,366 employees.

The largest borrowers also included Dexia SA (DEXB), Belgium’s biggest bank by assets, and Societe Generale SA, based in Paris, whose bond-insurance prices have surged in the past month as investors speculated that the spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe might increase their chances of default.

The $1.2 trillion peak on Dec. 5, 2008 — the combined outstanding balance under the seven programs tallied by Bloomberg — was almost three times the size of the U.S. federal budget deficit that year and more than the total earnings of all federally insured banks in the U.S. for the decade through 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Peak Balance

The balance was more than 25 times the Fed’s pre-crisis lending peak of $46 billion on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon. Denominated in $1 bills, the $1.2 trillion would fill 539 Olympic-size swimming pools.

The Fed has said it had “no credit losses” on any of the emergency programs, and a report by Federal Reserve Bank of New York staffers in February said the central bank netted $13 billion in interest and fee income from the programs from August 2007 through December 2009.

“We designed our broad-based emergency programs to both effectively stem the crisis and minimize the financial risks to the U.S. taxpayer,” said James Clouse, deputy director of the Fed’s division of monetary affairs in Washington. “Nearly all of our emergency-lending programs have been closed. We have incurred no losses and expect no losses.”

While the 18-month U.S. recession that ended in June 2009 after a 5.1 percent contraction in gross domestic product was nowhere near the four-year, 27 percent decline between August 1929 and March 1933, banks and the economy remain stressed.

Odds of Recession

The odds of another recession have climbed during the past six months, according to five of nine economists on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, an academic panel that dates recessions.

Bank of America’s bond-insurance prices last week surged to a rate of $342,040 a year for coverage on $10 million of debt, above whereLehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ)’s bond insurance was priced at the start of the week before the firm collapsed. Citigroup’s shares are trading below the split-adjusted price of $28 that they hit on the day the bank’s Fed loans peaked in January 2009. The U.S. unemployment rate was at 9.1 percent in July, compared with 4.7 percent in November 2007, before the recession began.

Homeowners are more than 30 days past due on their mortgage payments on 4.38 million properties in the U.S., and 2.16 million more properties are in foreclosure, representing a combined $1.27 trillion of unpaid principal, estimates Jacksonville, Florida-based Lender Processing Services Inc.

Liquidity Requirements

“Why in hell does the Federal Reserve seem to be able to find the way to help these entities that are gigantic?” U.S. Representative Walter B. Jones, a Republican from North Carolina, said at a June 1 congressional hearing in Washington on Fed lending disclosure. “They get help when the average businessperson down in eastern North Carolina, and probably across America, they can’t even go to a bank they’ve been banking with for 15 or 20 years and get a loan.”

The sheer size of the Fed loans bolsters the case for minimum liquidity requirements that global regulators last year agreed to impose on banks for the first time, said Litan, now a vice president at the Kansas City, Missouri-based Kauffman Foundation, which supports entrepreneurship research. Liquidity refers to the daily funds a bank needs to operate, including cash to cover depositor withdrawals.

The rules, which mandate that banks keep enough cash and easily liquidated assets on hand to survive a 30-day crisis, don’t take effect until 2015. Another proposed requirement for lenders to keep “stable funding” for a one-year horizon was postponed until at least 2018 after banks showed they’d have to raise as much as $6 trillion in new long-term debt to comply.

‘Stark Illustration’

Regulators are “not going to go far enough to prevent this from happening again,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at theInternational Monetary Fund and now an economics professor at Harvard University.

Reforms undertaken since the crisis might not insulate U.S. markets and financial institutions from the sovereign budget and debt crises facing Greece, Ireland and Portugal, according to the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council, a 10-member body created by the Dodd-Frank Act and led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

“The recent financial crisis provides a stark illustration of how quickly confidence can erode and financial contagion can spread,” the council said in its July 26 report.

Any new rescues by the U.S. central bank would be governed by transparency laws adopted in 2010 that require the Fed to disclose borrowers after two years.

21,000 Transactions

Fed officials argued for more than two years that releasing the identities of borrowers and the terms of their loans would stigmatize banks, damaging stock prices or leading to depositor runs. A group of the biggest commercial banks last year asked the U.S. Supreme Court to keep at least some Fed borrowings secret. In March, the high court declined to hear that appeal, and the central bank made an unprecedented release of records.

Data gleaned from 29,346 pages of documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and from other Fed databases of more than 21,000 transactions make clear for the first time how deeply the world’s largest banks depended on the U.S. central bank to stave off cash shortfalls. Even as the firms asserted in news releases or earnings calls that they had ample cash, they drew Fed funding in secret, avoiding the stigma of weakness.

Morgan Stanley Borrowing

Two weeks after Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008, Morgan Stanley countered concerns that it might be next to go by announcing it had “strong capital and liquidity positions.” The statement, in a Sept. 29, 2008, press release about a $9 billion investment from Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., said nothing about Morgan Stanley’s Fed loans.

That was the same day as the firm’s $107.3 billion peak in borrowing from the central bank, which was the source of almost all of Morgan Stanley’s available cash, according to the lending data and documents released more than two years later by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The amount was almost three times the company’s total profits over the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Mark Lake, a spokesman for New York-based Morgan Stanley, said the crisis caused the industry to “fundamentally re- evaluate” the way it manages its cash.

“We have taken the lessons we learned from that period and applied them to our liquidity-management program to protect both our franchise and our clients going forward,” Lake said. He declined to say what changes the bank had made.

Acceptable Collateral

In most cases, the Fed demanded collateral for its loans — Treasuries or corporate bonds and mortgage bonds that could be seized and sold if the money wasn’t repaid. That meant the central bank’s main risk was that collateral pledged by banks that collapsed would be worth less than the amount borrowed.

As the crisis deepened, the Fed relaxed its standards for acceptable collateral. Typically, the central bank accepts only bonds with the highest credit grades, such as U.S. Treasuries. By late 2008, it was accepting “junk” bonds, those rated below investment grade. It even took stocks, which are first to get wiped out in a liquidation.

Morgan Stanley borrowed $61.3 billion from one Fed program in September 2008, pledging a total of $66.5 billion of collateral, according to Fed documents. Securities pledged included $21.5 billion of stocks, $6.68 billion of bonds with a junk credit rating and $19.5 billion of assets with an “unknown rating,” according to the documents. About 25 percent of the collateral was foreign-denominated.

‘Willingness to Lend’

“What you’re looking at is a willingness to lend against just about anything,” said Robert Eisenbeis, a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and now chief monetary economist in Atlanta for Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors Inc.

The lack of private-market alternatives for lending shows how skeptical trading partners and depositors were about the value of the banks’ capital and collateral, Eisenbeis said.

“The markets were just plain shut,” said Tanya Azarchs, former head of bank research at Standard & Poor’s and now an independent consultant in Briarcliff Manor, New York. “If you needed liquidity, there was only one place to go.”

Even banks that survived the crisis without government capital injections tapped the Fed through programs that promised confidentiality. London-based Barclays Plc (BARC) borrowed $64.9 billion and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) got $66 billion. Sarah MacDonald, a spokeswoman for Barclays, and John Gallagher, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment.

Below-Market Rates

While the Fed’s last-resort lending programs generally charge above-market interest rates to deter routine borrowing, that practice sometimes flipped during the crisis. On Oct. 20, 2008, for example, the central bank agreed to make $113.3 billion of 28-day loans through its Term Auction Facility at a rate of 1.1 percent, according to a press release at the time.

The rate was less than a third of the 3.8 percent that banks were charging each other to make one-month loans on that day. Bank of America and Wachovia Corp. each got $15 billion of the 1.1 percent TAF loans, followed by Royal Bank of Scotland’s RBS Citizens NA unit with $10 billion, Fed data show.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the New York-based lender that touted its “fortress balance sheet” at least 16 times in press releases and conference calls from October 2007 through February 2010, took as much as $48 billion in February 2009 from TAF. The facility, set up in December 2007, was a temporary alternative to the discount window, the central bank’s 97-year-old primary lending program to help banks in a cash squeeze.

‘Larger Than TARP’

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), which in 2007 was the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, borrowed $69 billion from the Fed on Dec. 31, 2008. Among the programs New York-based Goldman Sachs tapped after the Lehman bankruptcy was the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, or PDCF, designed to lend money to brokerage firms ineligible for the Fed’s bank-lending programs.

Michael Duvally, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs, declined to comment.

The Fed’s liquidity lifelines may increase the chances that banks engage in excessive risk-taking with borrowed money, Rogoff said. Such a phenomenon, known as moral hazard, occurs if banks assume the Fed will be there when they need it, he said. The size of bank borrowings “certainly shows the Fed bailout was in many ways much larger than TARP,” Rogoff said.

TARP is the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, a $700 billion bank-bailout fund that provided capital injections of $45 billion each to Citigroup and Bank of America, and $10 billion to Morgan Stanley. Because most of the Treasury’s investments were made in the form of preferred stock, they were considered riskier than the Fed’s loans, a type of senior debt.

Dodd-Frank Requirement

In December, in response to the Dodd-Frank Act, the Fed released 18 databases detailing its temporary emergency-lending programs.

Congress required the disclosure after the Fed rejected requests in 2008 from the late Bloomberg News reporter Mark Pittman and other media companies that sought details of its loans under the Freedom of Information Act. After fighting to keep the data secret, the central bank released unprecedented information about its discount window and other programs under court order in March 2011.

Bloomberg News combined Fed databases made available in December and July with the discount-window records released in March to produce daily totals for banks across all the programs, including the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, Commercial Paper Funding Facility, discount window, PDCF, TAF, Term Securities Lending Facility and single-tranche open market operations. The programs supplied loans from August 2007 through April 2010.

Rolling Crisis

The result is a timeline illustrating how the credit crisis rolled from one bank to another as financial contagion spread.

Fed borrowings by Societe Generale (GLE), France’s second-biggest bank, peaked at $17.4 billion in May 2008, four months after the Paris-based lender announced a record 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) loss on unauthorized stock-index futures bets by former trader Jerome Kerviel.

Morgan Stanley’s top borrowing came four months later, after Lehman’s bankruptcy. Citigroup crested in January 2009, as did 43 other banks, the largest number of peak borrowings for any month during the crisis. Bank of America’s heaviest borrowings came two months after that.

Sixteen banks, including Plano, Texas-based Beal Financial Corp. and Jacksonville, Florida-based EverBank Financial Corp., didn’t hit their peaks until February or March 2010.

“At no point was there a material risk to the Fed or the taxpayer, as the loan required collateralization,” said Reshma Fernandes, a spokeswoman for EverBank, which borrowed as much as $250 million.

Using Subsidiaries

Banks maximized their borrowings by using subsidiaries to tap Fed programs at the same time. In March 2009, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America drew $78 billion from one facility through two banking units and $11.8 billion more from two other programs through its broker-dealer, Bank of America Securities LLC.

Banks also shifted balances among Fed programs. Many preferred the TAF because it carried less of the stigma associated with the discount window, often seen as the last resort for lenders in distress, according to a January 2011 paper by researchers at the New York Fed.

After the Lehman bankruptcy, hedge funds began pulling their cash out of Morgan Stanley, fearing it might be the next to collapse, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission said in a January report, citing interviews with former Chief Executive Officer John Mack and then-Treasurer David Wong.

Borrowings Surge

Morgan Stanley’s borrowings from the PDCF surged to $61.3 billion on Sept. 29 from zero on Sept. 14. At the same time, its loans from the Term Securities Lending Facility, or TSLF, rose to $36 billion from $3.5 billion. Morgan Stanley treasury reports released by the FCIC show the firm had $99.8 billion of liquidity on Sept. 29, a figure that included Fed borrowings.

“The cash flow was all drying up,” said Roger Lister, a former Fed economist who’s now head of financial-institutions coverage at credit-rating firm DBRS Inc. in New York. “Did they have enough resources to cope with it? The answer would be yes, but they needed the Fed.”

While Morgan Stanley’s Fed demands were the most acute, Citigroup was the most chronic borrower among the largest U.S. banks. The New York-based company borrowed $10 million from the TAF on the program’s first day in December 2007 and had more than $25 billion outstanding under all programs by May 2008, according to Bloomberg data. By Nov. 21, when Citigroup began talks with the government to get a $20 billion capital injection on top of the $25 billion received a month earlier, its Fed borrowings had doubled to about $50 billion.

Tapping Six Programs

Over the next two months the amount almost doubled again. On Jan. 20, as the stock sank below $3 for the first time in 16 years amid investor concerns that the lender’s capital cushion might be inadequate, Citigroup was tapping six Fed programs at once. Its total borrowings amounted to more than twice the federal Department of Education’s 2011 budget.

Citigroup was in debt to the Fed on seven out of every 10 days from August 2007 through April 2010, the most frequent U.S. borrower among the 100 biggest publicly traded firms by pre- crisis market valuation. On average, the bank had a daily balance at the Fed of almost $20 billion.

“Citibank basically was sustained by the Fed for a very long time,” said Richard Herring, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia who has studied financial crises.

Jon Diat, a Citigroup spokesman, said the bank made use of programs that “achieved the goal of instilling confidence in the markets.”

‘Help Motivate Others’

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a letter to shareholders last year that his bank avoided many government programs. It did use TAF, Dimon said in the letter, “but this was done at the request of the Federal Reserve to help motivate others to use the system.”

The bank, the second-largest in the U.S. by assets, first tapped the TAF in May 2008, six months after the program debuted, and then zeroed out its borrowings in September 2008. The next month, it started using TAF again.

On Feb. 26, 2009, more than a year after TAF’s creation, JPMorgan’s borrowings under the program climbed to $48 billion. On that day, the overall TAF balance for all banks hit its peak, $493.2 billion. Two weeks later, the figure began declining.

“Our prior comment is accurate,” said Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for JPMorgan.

‘The Cheapest Source’

Herring, the University of Pennsylvania professor, said some banks may have used the program to maximize profits by borrowing “from the cheapest source, because this was supposed to be secret and never revealed.”

Whether banks needed the Fed’s money for survival or used it because it offered advantageous rates, the central bank’s lender-of-last-resort role amounts to a free insurance policy for banks guaranteeing the arrival of funds in a disaster, Herring said.

An IMF report last October said regulators should consider charging banks for the right to access central bank funds.

“The extent of official intervention is clear evidence that systemic liquidity risks were under-recognized and mispriced by both the private and public sectors,” the IMF said in a separate report in April.

Access to Fed backup support “leads you to subject yourself to greater risks,” Herring said. “If it’s not there, you’re not going to take the risks that would put you in trouble and require you to have access to that kind of funding.”

Markets in New ‘Danger Zone’: Zoellick

(Reuters) – The loss of market confidence in economic leadership in key countries like the United States and Europe coupled with a fragile economic recovery have pushed markets into a new danger zone, something that policymakers have to take seriously, the head of the World Bank said on Sunday.

Speaking at the Asia Society dinner in Sydney, Robert Zoellick also said the global economy was going through a multi-speed recovery, with developing countries now the source of growth and opportunity.

“What’s happened in the past couple of weeks is there is a convergence of some events in Europe and the United States that has led many market participants to lose confidence in economic leadership of some of the key countries,” he said.

“I think those events combined with some of the other fragilities in the nature of recovery have pushed us into a new danger zone. I don’t say those words lightly … so that policymakers recognize and take it seriously for what it is.”

Zoellick said the process of dealing with the sovereign debt problem and some of the competitive issues in the euro zone have tended to be done “a day late,” leaving markets worried that authorities may not be ahead of the problem or moving in the right direction.

“That (worry) has accumulated and so we’re moving from drama to trauma for a lot of the euro zone countries,” he said.

On the United States, Zoellick said it wasn’t fears the world’s biggest economy faced an imminent problem, but “frankly that markets are used to the United States playing a key role in the economic system and leadership.”

He said efforts to cut U.S. government spending have so far been focused on discretionary spending as opposed to the entitlement program such as social security. “Until they make an effort on those programs, there is going to be continued skepticism about dealing with long-term spending.”

Zoellick said while market confidence has been hit, the real issue was whether this will spread to business and consumer confidence, something that was still unclear.

“What is different from the world of the past is now emerging markets are sources of growth and opportunity. About half of global growth is represented by the developing world … so this is a very rapid change in a relatively short span of time in historical terms,” he added.

On China, Zoellick said the appreciation of the yuan would be constructive, especially in helping tackle the country’s inflationary pressure.

On Australia, he said the country was in a much better position than other developed countries because it undertook structural reforms. On the fiscal side, he noted Australia’s debt was only 7 percent of gross domestic product and taking advantage of its position in the Asia Pacific..

page 1 of 10 »

Welcome , today is Sunday, 02/05/2012