Tags: Federal Reserve

Prepare for QE3 – Analyst

Editor’s Note: The ‘monetary injection trade’? So investors are being reduced to guessing what the Fed may or may not do. This guy pretty much sums it up. They print and markets go up; they stop and markets dive. What a great recovery!

Investors should prepare themselves for a third round of quantitative easing, Simon Maughn, co-head of European equities at MF Global, told CNBC Wednesday.

“The bond market is going in one direction which is up-falling yields which is telling you quite clearly the direction of economic travel is downwards. Downgrades. QE3 (a third round of quantitative easing) is coming,” said Maughn. “The bond markets are all smarter than us, and that’s exactly what the bond markets are telling me.”

 

“What’s interesting in the bond markets over the last couple of sessions is, you’ve seen human traders trying to step in and call this turn in the market the same way that equities have done … and they have just been mowed down by the quant funds which are all about leverage, all about momentum and are betting on bond prices going up,” added Maughn.

Once again, the United States will step up as the marginal buyer of bonds, said Maughn.

“One more big injection of cash into the bond market should take you through at least the summer season into the beginning of the fourth quarter.”

“That cash injection will have the normal inflationary knock-on impact, driving back up commodities, supporting industrial stocks, dragging the financials up with them… I think it’s all about the monetary injection trade,” Maughn told CNBC.

May’s Centsible Investor is Available

The May Edition of our premium newsletter, ‘The Centsible Investor’ is available!

Despite the blowout in commodities and the sideways/down action in stocks, the model portfolio lost just .3% in the past month. The portfolio has been bolstered by diversification and also by a few new strategic additions to the dividend section, which we outlined in an earlier dispatch.

This month’s keynote article is an expose of the federal reserve. The article delves into the historical events surrounding the creation of the fed, some comments by various fed officials which lay bare the truth that this was an entity that was created to commit legalized theft via inflation. We explain in easy to understand terms the main mechanisms by which the fed accomplishes this task. Hopefully after reading this piece, you’ll be convinced of the need for a full Congressional investigation (not a whitewash) of this institution and its eventual demise.

The energy update focuses on JP Morgan’s validation of the work we’ve been doing for well over a year – there is a growing disconnect between global oil supply and demand and that we’ve been experiencing supply deficits in the US for some time now.

This month’s metals report is critical in terms of getting a firm understanding of what exactly is going on in the commodities markets recently. The media would have you believe (once again) that the bull market in commodities is over. Why does the media despise commodities so? Because commodities are an excellent proxy of the inflation created by central banks and the bank-sponsored media must do its bidding.

In our equity market update, we look across our full range of indicators: short, medium, and long term and analyze potential disturbances in the markets moving forward. We also outline several triggering mechanisms for these disturbances and give you some signposts to watch for as you navigate through the reams of information you come across daily.

For more information or to subscriber, please click here

S&P Cuts Greece’s Credit Rating – AGAIN

Editor’s Note: S&P warns Greece on restructuring its debt, but has no problem with the US Govt and Fed colluding to restructure America’s debt by inflation. This is why the ratings agencies have zero credibility – they are shills of the federal reserve and its primary policy tool – the US government.

Standard & Poor’s has again cut Greece’s credit rating, downgrading it by two notches to B as investor expectations of a debt restructuring continue to rise.

The rating is the lowest yet for Greece and is six notches below investment grade. It comes after European officials acknowledged for the first time that Greece’s €110bn rescue package a year ago was insufficient and that further help would be needed.

Strikingly, Greece has now been at a “junk” credit rating from S&P for more than a year. Recent research from the International Monetary Fund shows that every country that has defaulted since 1975 was junk-rated for at least a year beforehand.

S&P cited the increased likelihood of an extension of the debt payment maturities for Greece’s loans from the European Union as a reason for the downgrade, as private creditors would probably be asked to do the same.

“Such private sector burden sharing would likely constitute a distressed exchange according to our criteria, for which we assign a rating of ‘SD’ for selective default,” it added in a statement on Monday.

The US rating agency also kept Greece on credit watch negative, meaning further downgrades are possible.

Market interest rates on Greek debt continued to rise on Monday with the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds rising 0.22 percentage points to 15.73 per cent. That corresponds to a price of about 56, well below the 100 the bondholder would get if he held it to maturity without a default. The yield on three-year bonds rose 0.4 percentage points to 24.21 per cent.

Bernanke: Here Comes the Inflation!

Editor’s Note: Just a modest uptick in inflation? Oh wait, these guys don’t count the trillions they’ve printed from nothing to bail out their banker buddies as being inflationary. Our bad.

The Fed cut its growth estimate for 2011 to between 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent from a January forecast of 3.4 percent to 3.9 percent.

The Fed also raised its estimate of inflation this year to a range of 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent, taking into account a recent surge in oil prices. However, it bumped its core inflation forecasts only marginally to a 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent range.

As for unemployment, it lowered its forecast but said it would stay elevated over its three-year forecast period. For 2011, the Fed said it expects the unemployment rate to land in a 8.4-8.7 percent range, better than a range of 8.8-9.0 percent forecast in January.

“The markdown of growth in 2011, in particular, reflects the somewhat slower than anticipated pace of growth in the first quarter,” Bernanke said in prepared remarks before he took reporter questions.

But he added: “I would say that roughly that most of the slowdown in the first quarter is viewed by the committee as being transitory.”

Bernanke faced broad questioning, including on the falling value of the dollar for which the Fed is getting some blame because of its efforts to broaden credit availability. In the currency markets Wednesday, the U.S. dollar fell to a fresh 3-year low against major currencies while Bernanke spoke.

While deferring to currency policy as an issue for the Treasury Department, Bernanke said a strong, stable dollar was in the interests of the United States and the world economy. He said a growing economy would be helpful for the dollar.

Bernanke also said the first step in tightening interest-rate policy could occur when the Fed stops reinvesting the proceeds of its bond holdings.

Bernanke would not be specific about when that might occur. He said it will depend on inflation and economic growth, adding that step would be a relatively modest one. But it would constitute the Fed’s first tightening because it would allow interest rates to creep up.

Wednesday’s event marks the first regularly scheduled news conference by a Fed chairman in the central bank’s 97-year history.

U.S. stocks extended gains as Bernanke spoke, probably because “there’s no curve ball,” Jeremy Zirin, chief U.S. equity strategist at UBS Wealth Management, told CNBC.

“This is brand new territory,” Zirin said, adding he believed Bernanke “has done a very, very good job of explaining in layman’s terms the process the Fed goes through in establishing policy. To some degree, they are giving Bernanke a thumbs up.”

Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, also gave the Fed chairman a nod for his handling of the event.

“After what seemed as a tentative start, he gained momentum and hit his stride very well and effectively,” El-Erian told Reuters. “He addressed a good mix of questions, combining economic and policy issues as well as domestic and international ones.”

In an earlier post-meeting statement, the Fed modestly upgraded its assessment of the jobs market, say it was “improving gradually.” A month ago it said simply that it appeared to be improving.

Importantly, it again expressed confidence that a surge in the cost of oil and other commodities would be transitory and not spark broader inflation.

“Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued,” it said.

The statement marked the conclusion — at least for now — of the massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet that helped pull the economy out of its deep recession.

“On policy, the statement confirms that (the bond buying) is over but otherwise leaves everything on the table subject to regular review ‘in light of incoming information,’” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities.

Still, the central bank said it would continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing securities it holds to keep its economic support in place, ensuring it would remain a big buyer in debt markets.

Some investors, such as Bill Gross from PIMCO, the world’s biggest bond fund manager, have predicted a bond market sell-off when the Fed steps out of the picture.

Push to Bring Back Gold Standard Intensifies

Starting in May, Utah residents will be able to shop
in a currency other than the dollargold,
something that hasn’t happened since 1933.

Utah became the first U.S. state last month to
recognize gold and silver coins minted by the federal
government as legal tender. More than a dozen other
states are considering similar measures, and are
expected to follow Utah’s example. The move,
proponents say, is caused by declining faith in the U.
S. monetary system and concern about rising
inflation.

The gold standard, a monetary system in which the
dollar is valued against a certain weight of gold,
lasted until the Great Depression, when the Federal
Reserve confiscated gold held by the public.
President Nixon abolished the conversion of dollars
to gold at a fixed rate in 1971.

It doesn’t literally mean people would pull out gold
coins at the cash register. Instead, the Federal
Reserve would be required by law to make their notes
redeemable for gold and hold gold coins and bullion
as reserves. The printing of U.S. dollars would also
be weighed against the value of gold.

The last time the gold standard was seriously
considered was during President Ronald Reagan’s
administration. Reagan appointed a commission in
1981 to study the role of gold in the U.S. monetary
system, but the group mostly came out against it –
except for two members, including now-Rep. Ron
Paul, R-Texas, a champion of the Tea Party movement.

Despite continued calls by proponents like Paul to
consider the gold standard, it had mostly stayed
under the radar, until now.

The Tea Party‘s growing momentum and rising
inflation is giving new life to the issue, as evident in
Utah.

“We are just now starting to see some interest. These
actions by state legislatures are mostly symbolic –
declaring that people can use a one-ounce federally-

minted gold coin at its face value of $50 doesn’t
really give people a reason to do that. But it’s a
statement by the state legislators that they are
concerned by the state of the dollar,” said Lawrence
H. White, a professor of economics at George Mason
University who has published several reports on the
topic.

State lawmakers are “concerned about the future of the
dollar, worried that [worse] inflation is coming,” White
said. “People need to have an alternative if the dollar
melts down.”

Investors Catching Gold and Silver Fever

When Jean-Claude Trichet announced a quarter-point jump in interest rates this week, gold and silver prices dipped as the European Central Bank chief emphasised his inflation-fighting focus.

But the two well-known inflation hedges were only temporarily dented by the tough talk; on Friday silver pushed above $40 a troy ounce for the first time since 1980 and gold pushed to a new all-time high in nominal terms at $1,474.19.

The metals’ rallies have clear links to rising fears about inflation. But recent predictions for silver to hit $50 and gold to breach $1,500 are based on more than just these fears.

“Both markets actually have surplus supply. Demand for both is good – particularly industrial demand for silver – but this isn’t enough to absorb all the supply,” says Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital. “That leaves the rest down to investor demand.”

Investors have indeed been piling in. Holdings of gold to back exchange-traded funds – the popular way for retail investors to gain exposure – jumped 19.9 tonnes on Thursday alone in the biggest single inflow since late January, according to Barclays. On the same day, holdings of silver jumped 42 tonnes to another record at 15,554 tonnes.

Interest itself has been triggered by a range of factors, not least geopolitical tensions. After a weak January, prices of the metals spiked higher in February when the unrest that toppled governments in Tunisia and then Egypt sent investors scrambling for havens.

During the financial crisis, investor fear manifested itself in strong demand for physical holdings. In spite of recent turmoil, there has not been the same scramble to buy physical supplies this time round.

“The fear factor is not as key right now,” says Osvaldo Canavosio, a hedge fund analyst at Man Investments in New York. “At the height of the financial crisis, in precious metals there was a bit of a panic to hold physical.”

Yet the haven buyers were out in force again on Friday, watchers said, as investors braced for a potential shutdown of the US government if last-ditch talks between Republicans and Democrats fail to reach agreement.

Retail investors are showing particular interest in silver coins in many countries, including the US. Last month the Utah state legislature passed a bill accepting US gold and silver coins as legal tender and other states are considering similar legislation in a direct rebuke to the Federal Reserve and its ultra-loose monetary policy.

“Utah has crossed the Rubicon, others are likely to follow suit,” says Daniel Brebner at Deutsche Bank.

Analysts and investors now see $1,500 gold and $50 silver as likely to be breached in the coming months, as the potential for looser monetary policy for longer in the US weighs on the dollar.

Commodities, including gold and silver, are typically priced in dollars so a weaker dollar boosts raw materials prices. The euro hit a 14-month high of $1.4443 against the dollar on Friday. Some gold bugs are even betting on a third round of quantitative easing, dubbed QE3, by the Federal Reserve, after its current scheme ends in June.

“Expectations that QE2 could be followed by QE3 are higher in the gold market than in other markets,” says Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS.

This could leave gold investors setting themselves up for disappointment. “I would expect gold to march to $1,500 sooner rather than later,” says Ms Tully. “Towards the end of this quarter gold could hit a stumbling block if QE2 ends.”

An end to QE would tighten US monetary policy but it would be a small step compared with the inflationary impact of soaring oil and food prices, which have pushed real US interest rates – nominal rates minus inflation – to negative levels, analysts say.

“Gold is ultimately dependent upon real rates, which are a function of both inflation expectations and monetary policy,” says Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, which forecasts gold will hit $1,625 by the end of the year. “A top in gold prices will only become apparent when the risks of sovereign default are behind us with a clear and successful exit of the stimulus we’ve seen over the last few years.”

Negative real rates are not just a US issue; the same is true in China – where demand for bullion is skyrocketing, bankers say.

“The cost of carry [the difference between interest on deposits and non-interest bearing gold] is zero,” says Walter de Wet, head of commodities research at Standard Bank. “It incentivises money to be invested in assets.”

Analysts are, however, less confident on silver, whose move higher has been so dramatic that many believe a sharp correction could soon be on the cards.

“I’m less convinced we’re going to remain so high, if only because we’re expecting a generous increase in mine supply,” says James Steel, commodities analyst at HSBC. “Short-term, we could go higher, but it’s increasingly vulnerable to a correction.”

Where are the Cuffs?

Editor’s  Note: This is no April Fools joke. I played on a prior podcast several months ago a clip of Bernanke being asked by Rep. Alan Grayson who got the TARP and rescue monies. Bernanke stammered and said ‘central banks’. When asked which ones, he said “I don’t know.” Obviously he was lying. Where are the calls from Congress for perjury charges?

April 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s two-year fight to shield crisis-squeezed banks from the stigma of revealing their public loans protected a lender to local governments in Belgium, a Japanese fishing-cooperative financier and a company part-owned by the Central Bank of Libya.

Dexia SA, based in Brussels and Paris, borrowed as much as $33.5 billion through its New York branch from the Fed’s “discount window” lending program, according to Fed documents released yesterday in response to a Freedom of Information Act request. Dublin-based Depfa Bank Plc, taken over in 2007 by a German real-estate lender later seized by the German government, drew $24.5 billion.

The biggest borrowers from the 97-year-old discount window as the program reached its crisis-era peak were foreign banks, accounting for at least 70 percent of the $110.7 billion borrowed during the week in October 2008 when use of the program surged to a record. The disclosures may stoke a reexamination of the risks posed to U.S. taxpayers by the central bank’s role in global financial markets.

“The caricature of the Fed is that it was shoveling money to big New York banks and a bunch of foreigners, and that is not conducive to its long-run reputation,” said Vincent Reinhart, the Fed’s director of monetary affairs from 2001 to 2007.

Commercial Paper

Separate data disclosed in December on temporary emergency- lending programs set up by the Fed also showed big foreign banks as borrowers. Six European banks were among the top 11 companies that sold the most debt overall — a combined $274.1 billion — to the Commercial Paper Funding Facility.

Those programs also loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to the biggest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

The discount window, which began lending in 1914, is the Fed’s primary program for providing cash to banks to help them avert a liquidity squeeze. In an April 2009 speech, Bernanke said that revealing the names of discount-window borrowers “might lead market participants to infer weakness.”

The Fed released the documents after court orders upheld FOIA requests filed by Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, and News Corp.’s Fox News Network LLC. In all, the Fed released more than 29,000 pages of documents, covering the discount window and several Fed emergency-lending programs established during the crisis from August 2007 to March 2010.

Public Outrage

“The American people are going to be outraged when they understand what has been going on,” U.S. Representative Ron Paul, a Texas Republican who is chairman of the House subcommittee that oversees the Fed, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

“What in the world are we doing thinking we can pass out tens of billions of dollars to banks that are overseas?” said Paul, who has advocated abolishing the Fed. “We have problems here at home with people not being able to pay their mortgages, and they’re losing their homes.”

David Skidmore, a Fed spokesman, declined to comment. Fed officials have said all the discount window loans made during the worst financial crisis since the 1930s have been repaid with interest.

The Monetary Control Act of 1980 says that a U.S. branch or agency of a foreign bank that maintains reserves at a Fed bank may receive discount-window credit.

“Our job is to provide liquidity to keep the American economy going,” Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve’s regional bank in Dallas, told reporters today. “The loans were all paid back and they were well-collateralized.”

Wachovia’s Loans

Wachovia Corp. was the only U.S. bank among the top five discount-window borrowers as the crisis peaked.

The company, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, borrowed $29 billion from the discount window on Oct. 6, in the week after it almost collapsed, the data show. Wachovia agreed in principle to sell itself to Citigroup Inc. on Sept. 29, before announcing a definitive agreement to sell itself to Wells Fargo & Co. on Oct. 3. The Wells Fargo deal closed at the end of 2008.

Wells Fargo spokeswoman Mary Eshet declined to comment on Wachovia’s discount-window borrowing.

Bank of Scotland Plc, which had $11 billion outstanding from the discount window on Oct. 29, 2008, was a unit of Edinburgh-based HBOS Plc, which announced its takeover by London-based Lloyds TSB Group Plc in September 2008.

The borrowings in 2008 didn’t involve Lloyds, which hadn’t completed its acquisition of HBOS at the time, said Sara Evans, a spokeswoman for the company, which is now called Lloyds Banking Group Plc.

‘Historic’ Use

“This is historic usage and on each occasion the borrowing was repaid at maturity,” Evans said. “The discount window has not been accessed by the group since.”

Other foreign discount-window borrowers on Oct. 29, 2008, included Societe Generale SA, France’s second-biggest bank; and Norinchukin Bank, which finances and provides services to Japanese agricultural, fishing and forestry cooperatives. Paris- based Societe Generale borrowed $5 billion that day, and Tokyo- based Norinchukin borrowed $6 billion.

Jim Galvin, a spokesman for Societe Generale, declined to comment.

“We used it in concert with Japanese and U.S. authorities in the purpose of contributing to the stabilization of the market,” said Fumiaki Tanaka, a spokesman at Norinchukin.

Bank of China

Bank of China, the country’s oldest bank, was the second- largest borrower from the Fed’s discount window during a nine- day period in August 2007 as subprime-mortgage defaults first roiled broader markets. The Chinese bank’s New York branch borrowed $198 million on Aug. 17 of that month.

“It was just routine borrowing,” said Dale Zhu, head of the Bank of China New York branch’s treasury.

Two Deutsche Bank AG divisions borrowed $1 billion each, according to a document released yesterday.

Arab Banking Corp., then 29 percent-owned by the Libyan central bank, used its New York branch to get at least 73 loans from the Fed in the 18 months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. The largest single loan amount outstanding was $1.2 billion in July 2009, according to the Fed documents.

The foreign banks took advantage of Fed lending programs even as their host countries moved to prop them up or orchestrate takeovers.

Dexia received billions of euros in capital and funding guarantees from France, Belgium and Luxembourg during the credit crunch.

‘High-Quality’ Collateral

The Fed loans were “secured by high-quality U.S. dollar municipal securities,” and used only to fund U.S. loans, bonds and other financial assets, Ulrike Pommee, a spokeswoman for the company, said in an e-mail.

“The Fed played its role as central banker, providing liquidity to banks that needed it,” she said, adding that Dexia’s outstanding balance at the Fed has been reduced to zero. “This information is backward-looking.”

Depfa was taken over in October 2007 by Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, which in turn was seized by the German government in 2009.

“Since the end of May 2010, Depfa is not making use of the Federal Reserve Discount Window,” Oliver Gruss, a spokesman for the bank, said in an e-mailed statement. He declined to comment further.

Dollar Assets

Many foreign banks own large pools of dollar assets — bonds, securities and loans — funded by short-term borrowings in money markets. The system works when markets are calm, said Dino Kos, former executive vice president at the New York Fed in charge of open-market operations. In times of stress, banks can be subject to sudden liquidity squeezes, he said.

“They are playing with fire,” said Kos, a managing director at Hamiltonian Associates Ltd. in New York, an economic research firm. “When the market dries up, and they can’t roll over their funding — bingo, you have a liquidity crisis.”

The potential for dollar shortages remains. As the Greek fiscal crisis roiled financial markets last year, the Fed had to open swap lines with the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and two other central banks to make more dollars available around the world. That move was partially the result of U.S. money market funds shrinking their exposure to European bank commercial paper.

Fed Finally Being Blamed for Inflation

Editor’s Note: Even though this article tried to make a mockery of the issue, it is a somewhat tacit admission of what thinking people have known for a long time: inflation is a monetary event and central banks are in fact responsible for the concomitant loss in purchasing power.

Food riots, deposed Middle Eastern despots and now this? Last week, a Texas man brandishing an assault rifle was involved in a three-hour shoot-out with police and had to be subdued with tear gas after ordering seven Beefy Crunch Burritos at a Taco Bell drive-through and being informed that their price had risen from 99 cents to $1.49.

Late night comedians and serious pundits alike had a field day with the story, opining on issues like fast-food culture, obesity (the seven burritos contain 3,600 calories, double the recommended daily intake) and gun control.

With his petty gripe, the gunman, Ricardo Jones, is no Muhammad al Bouazizi, the self-immolating Tunisian fruit seller who inspired millions across the region to throw off the yoke of tyranny, but 50 per cent is 50 per cent in San’a or San Antonio. Food inflation is a global phenomenon.

Taco Bell may well not be the villain here. It was recently alleged in a class-action lawsuit that only 35 per cent of what the fast-food chain describes as “beef” meets the strict technical definition (meat from a cow). The remaining 65 per cent is claimed to be made from fillers such as potassium lactate, modified corn starch, malto-dextrin and autolyzed yeast extract. Taco Bell has said it vigorously disputes the allegations made about its food – but if the class action claims were proved to be true, it could be seen as an ingenious attempt to hold the line on meat price rises. However, it is not only the price of meat that is rising alas, but also fuel, flour, vegetables and even autolyzed yeast extract.

The finger of blame is increasingly pointing toward central banks and the US Federal Reserve in particular. By printing money through quantitative easing, there are supposedly more dollars, yen and pounds chasing the same number of Beefy Crunch Burritos. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke actually was asked during a speaking engagement last month whether the central bank was culpable for the revolution in Egypt.

“I think it’s entirely unfair to attribute excess demand pressures in emerging markets to US monetary policy because emerging markets have all the tools they need to address excess demand in those countries,” said the clearly annoyed banker.

But an increasingly common view is that, with the very best intentions, he is at fault. Critics regularly cite the words of Milton Friedman, who said that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”.

The great economist’s words and work are being misinterpreted though. The monetary base has indeed mushroomed but, in the quantity theory of money, it is not a simple increase in the base that causes inflation. It is an excess supply of money, which is not the case – not yet anyway. At the moment, the money shows up as excess reserves on bank balance sheets, for which they receive interest.

If the Fed were to reduce or eliminate what it pays banks to park those reserves at the Fed, or if banks decided to expand balance sheets rapidly, then things would change. A little of this might be welcome but, if the Fed were too slow to put the brakes on a surge in lending out of fear of harming the recovery, serious inflation could result.

QE is not entirely off the hook though. Even if there is actually not more money in the economy chasing assets, the market’s anticipation of future recklessness and the opportunity cost for investors of holding low-yielding cash has increased the appeal of real assets. The Fed is happy to see this when it comes to shares or homes as this creates a benign wealth effect. Commodities are a different matter.

Even so, the price of oil, or of burritos for that matter, corresponds much more closely to supply and demand than, say, a share of Apple, which is not consumed and whose value is in the eye of the beholder. Rising affluence of developing market consumers – the so-called “march of the Chinese meat-eaters” – is the chief culprit. This is exacerbated by distorted currency regimes such as China’s, as Mr Bernanke hinted.

Just don’t shoot the messenger. Or the drive-through employee for that matter.

US on Road to Insolvency – Fisher

The United States is on a fiscal path towards insolvency and policymakers are at a “tipping point,” a Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday.

The President of the Federal Bank of Dallas, Richard W. Fisher

“If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent, the question is when,” Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said in a question and answer session after delivering a speech at the University of Frankfurt. “The short-term negotiations are very important, I look at this as a tipping point.”

But he added he was confident in the Americans’ ability to take the right decisions and said the country would avoid insolvency. Based on what?

“I think we are at the beginning of the process and it’s going to be very painful,” he added.

Fisher earlier said the US economic recovery is gathering momentum, adding that he personally was extremely vigilant on inflation pressures.

“We are all mindful of this phenomenon. Speaking personally, I am concerned and I am going to be extremely vigilant on that front,” Fisher said in an interview with CNBC.

Fisher added that the U.S. Federal Reserve had ways to tighten its monetary policy other than interest rates, including by selling Treasurys, changing reserves levels and using time deposits.

He added that he does not support the Fed embarking on an additional round of quantitative easing. (This time he’s playing ‘good cop’)

“Barring some extraordinary circumstance I cannot forsee…I would vote against a QE3,” Fisher told CNBC. “I don’t think it’s necessary. Again, we have a self-sustaining recovery.” Self-sustaining? This guy is obviously completely disconnected from reality and should be discredited as such. This ‘Good Cop / Bad Cop’ routine the Fed governors play is really wearing thin. Outside the lapdog media, none of these people have any credibility whatsoever.

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