Tags: dollar

China Imposes Capital Controls

China will force banks to hold more foreign exchange and strengthen auditing of overseas fund raising, stepping up efforts to curb hot-money inflows that may inflate asset bubbles and add pressure for a stronger yuan.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will introduce new rules on currency provisioning and tighten management of banks’ foreign-debt quotas, the regulator said in a statement on its website today. The government will also regulate Chinese special-purpose vehicles overseas and tighten controls on equity investments by foreign companies in China, it said.

The measures underscore concern around the world that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expanded monetary stimulus will cause capital to flood into emerging markets. The yuan rose today by the most since the end of a dollar peg in 2005 as global leaders prepare to discuss currency tensions and the impact of the Fed’s easing at the Group of 20 summit this week in Seoul.

“Some international funds will flee from dollar assets because of the Fed’s easing, and China’s SAFE is trying all means to plug loopholes in possible channels for hot-money inflows,” said Zhao Qingming, a senior analyst at China Construction Bank Corp. in Beijing, the country’s second-largest lender.

The yuan jumped 0.51 percent to 6.6440 per dollar as of 6:08 p.m. in Shanghai, bringing gains this year to 2.7 percent, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Twelve- month non-deliverable forwards were at 6.4463, reflecting bets the currency will strengthen 3 percent in one year.

Ease Pressure

Also today, Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission said it will restore curbs on foreign investments in fixed-income securities to include government debt due in more than a year. Capital inflows from overseas helped pushed the Taiwan dollar up the most in more than a decade yesterday.

China’s regulator said that a bank’s daily net dollar positions, in expired forward contracts and spot greenback holdings, should not be less than yesterday’s levels. Forcing banks to keep hold of U.S. currency will limit their ability to meet orders for yuan purchases, restricting the amount that can flow into local-currency assets.

“This is to ask banks to hold more foreign currency to help ease pressure on the growing size of China’s foreign- exchange reserves,” Zhao said. “To some extent, it can help limit yuan gains in the short term.”

The People’s Bank of China reported a record $100 billion jump in its foreign-exchange reserves to $2.65 trillion for September. China’s foreign debt totaled $513.8 billion at the end of June, including $343.8 billion of short-term debt, according to SAFE data.

Financial Security

Officials from China to Germany have criticized the Federal Reserve’s plan to pump $600 billion into the economy by buying Treasuries, saying the plan will weaken the dollar and risks escalating flows of speculative capital to emerging markets.

The world needs a stable dollar, Dai Xianglong, chairman of China’s National Council for Social Security Fund and a former head of the nation’s central bank, said today at a forum in Beijing. The Fed is “risking the fragile global recovery by following its own track for economic revival,” the state-run Xinhua News Agency said in a commentary.

The Fed’s plan may “shock” emerging markets by flooding them with capital, Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said yesterday.

Yuan Trend

The rules are aimed at “further curbing inflows and settlement of non-compliant funds,” the foreign exchange regulator said today. They are designed to “maintain China’s economic and financial security,” it said.

China’s capital controls can block abnormal inflows of money, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a forum in Beijing last week.

“The strengthened controls on hot money can’t change the yuan’s trend of appreciation,” said Isaac Meng, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. “The yuan will continue to appreciate as the Fed easing prompts more capital inflows and China’s economy grows faster than the U.S.”

Intended Consequences?

As was generally expected, this morning’s employment situation report gave another bundle of evidence to suggest that there is in fact no recovery, never was, and that several trillion dollars of ‘stimulus’ has disappeared down a rat hole of greed. In typical fashion, the mainstream press tried yet again to put a positive spin on a negative reality, pointing to the fact that we should rest easy; the Fed is going to buy government bonds to save the day. It is in total wonderment that I listen to these happy expectations and can only guess if these people know what they’re even wishing for. Let’s look at a few examples.

AP Business Writer Stephen Bernard writes:

“High unemployment remains a major hurdle as economic growth continues to be sluggish. The Labor Department’s report, considered the most important on the economic calendar, did little to alter anyone’s perception about the strength of the economy.

While the job growth remains scarce, there could be a silver lining. Expectations are growing that the Federal Reserve will try to stimulate the economy through the purchase of government bonds. The gloomy jobs report could give the Fed more incentive to act.”

While this is certainly true, do we really want the private, non-government Federal Reserve buying more bonds? It is bad enough that the Chinese already own massive portions of our future economic output in the form of Treasury Bond holdings. They own scads of mortgage bonds as well. Does anyone out there feel comfortable about the Chinese holding the note on your house? How about the Fed? Do we really want them owning the notes on any more of our homes? I asserted years ago that the housing bubble was nothing more than a property-grab and all indications are that it has been little more than just that.

Let’s look at another news outlet and their thoughts. Greg Robb at Marketwatch writes:

“There is little in the data to suggest further easing measures aren’t up the Federal Reserve’s sleeve. Prior to the report, economists had said that a strong U.S. payrolls number would be needed to take pressure off the Fed to deliver a second round of quantitative easing.”

Essentially the same pabulum from another ‘independent’ media outlet. The fancy term quantitative easing (QE) must be explained to the masses. We’ll try to sum it up in a few sentences so everyone is clear. QE entails the printing of money. It is what happens when interest rates are already at zero. The Fed cannot reasonably pay people to borrow money (negative interest rates) and expect this charade to continue. So QE is the printing of money, which is then used to buy certain strategic assets such as stocks, bonds, etc in the hopes of goosing markets and giving the Treasury ill-gotten cash with which to continue ‘stimulating’ the economy. QE is, in essence, declaring a fire sale on America, then creating the money from nothing to take advantage of the sale.

To make an analogy, it is kind of like you and I lending a bunch of money to a store, getting the store hooked on easy credit, etc. etc. then when it breaks, walking into the store with a pile of Monopoly money and buying the entire inventory. This is robbery and needs to be called for what it is.

And now, perhaps my favorite, coming from Reuters:

“Expectations the Fed, which has already pumped $1.7 trillion into the economy by buying mortgage-related and government bonds, would announce a second phase of quantitative easing at its Nov. 2-3 meeting have buoyed U.S. stocks and prices for shorter-dated government debt and have undercut the dollar.”

There is QE again. Sounds mighty fancy to the untrained ear, doesn’t it? Notice that even Reuters gives the truth almost as an afterthought. QE, and/or the expectation thereof, has undercut the dollar. That affects Main Street. Wages are stagnant, jobs are very hard to come by, and the Fed is purposely undertaking a course of action that will further squeeze Main Street by driving up the cost of living. While the Fed might get a 9.5 for style points and the fancy terminology, it gets a big, red, F- in terms of stewardship of its two legal mandates: maximum employment and price stability. Round 1 of QE didn’t help and there is no reason to believe that more of the same will do any better.

And how about the recent rally in stocks? Are any of these gains real? Of course not. The dollar is tanking while stocks, Gold, and oil take off. The Fed is trying to rekindle inflationary expectations to artificially pump markets. If they are successful, it will most assuredly be at the expense of the American taxpayer-consumer.

This is the crossroads at which we now stand. The M3 contraction that has been occurring for the entirety of 2010 will either be allowed to continue, which would have a cleansing affect despite the many negative manifestations in the real economy, or the Fed will simply try to overwhelm market forces and fill a $200+ trillion fiscal gap with dumpsters of worthless paper dollars.

So far the Fed et al have proven to be completely unable to perfect the ‘kick the can down the road’ approach. The economy is sliding despite QE and other miscellaneous efforts to this point. Certainly things might be ‘worse’ had they done nothing, but we can certainly make the argument that in this case, the cure is worse than the disease.

Dollar Slide Continues; Gold at New Record

TOKYO (AFP) – The dollar tumbled to a fresh 15-year low at 82.22 against the yen in Tokyo trading hours on Thursday on persistent fears over the US economic outlook.

The dollar fell from 82.87 in earlier trade to well below the level at which Japan last month carried out its first currency market intervention since 2004 to weaken the yen and protect an export-led recovery.

It later strengthened back to the mid 82-yen level.

The markets increasingly expect the US Federal Reserve to pump more money into the system to boost the flagging economy, even if doing so weakens the dollar and risks fanning inflation.

“The basic trend is dollar selling on the expected credit easing… The market is now sensitive to any negative news on the US economy,” said Yasuyuki Takeuchi, dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.

The Australian dollar on Thursday surged to an all time high of around 99.00 US cents, traders said, outstripping the record of 98.49 since it was allowed to float in December 1983.

The euro was trading close the key 1.40 dollar level, at around 1.3983.

“A lot of the trading community thinks this has further to go,” Daragh Maher, a senior currencies analyst at Credit Agricole in London told Dow Jones Newswires.

The greenback has been pressured after a report from payrolls firm ADP showed an unexpected drop in private sector jobs in September, highlighting fears about the lagging economic recovery.

The data added to worries that a closely watched government survey on non-farm payrolls for September due Friday may also indicate weakness.

The markets increasingly expect the US Federal Reserve to pump more money into the system to boost the flagging economy, even if doing so weakens the dollar and risks fanning inflation.

Tokyo has also repeatedly warned it is ready to step into the markets again, with Prime Minister Naoto Kan threatening further “decisive” steps if necessary on Thursday.

The yen’s continued strength follows moves by the Bank of Japan on Tuesday to adopt a near zero-rate policy and new pump-priming measures in a bid to spur growth, beat deflation and address the impact of the surging yen on the economy.

The strong yen has hurt Japan’s exporters, making their goods more expensive and eroding overseas profits when repatriated. Exports expanded at their slowest pace this year in August, with falling demand adding to their woes.

A strong domestic currency also makes imports cheaper, helping prolong a damaging deflationary cycle where consumers hold off on purchases in the hope of further price drops, clouding future corporate investment

China Seeks to Expand Gold Market – FT

Published on: 08/04/2010
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China seeks to widen gold market

By Leslie Hook in Beijing

Published: August 3 2010 19:27 | Last updated: August 3 2010 19:27

China has moved to liberalise its gold market further, increasing the number of banks allowed to trade bullion internationally and announcing measures that will encourage development of gold-linked investment products.

The move by Beijing’s central bank comes as the country’s investors pour record amounts of money into gold, in a trend that is becoming a significant factor on global prices.

Last year, Chinese investors bought 73 tonnes of bullion, up from 18 tonnes in 2007. The new policies were likely to increase liquidity in the domestic gold market and spur the development of gold financial products, analysts said.

China is the world’s largest gold producer and the second-largest consumer, after India, but its domestic market remains constrained by limited investment products.

“This is a positive sign for the gold market,” said James Steel, precious metals strategist at HSBC in New York.

“The Chinese statement reaffirms the vigour of the emerging markets’ demand for retail physical bullion.”

Gold prices rose in London, partly on the back of China’s announcement, but also on signs of robust buying from India’s jewellery sector.

Spot bullion traded at $1,190 a troy ounce, up from a three-month low of less than $1,160 an ounce last week.

GFMS, the London-based precious metals consultancy, said recently that Chinese investors, who are building wealth at an unprecedented rate, were diversifying their assets into gold to “protect themselves against inflation”.

The People’s Bank of China said “the need to perfect foreign exchange policies in the gold market is clear.”

It called for better financing services for bullion, opening the door for Chinese banks to hedge their gold risk overseas.

The central bank also hinted at changes in taxes on bullion. But it failed to endorse gold as an investment and to suggest it planned to increase the size of its bullion reserves, one of the world’s largest.

The new gold guidelines are part of the gradual internationalisation of the Chinese banking system. Restrictions on some renminbi-denominated investment products in Hong Kong have been lifted recently, and renminbi cross-border settlement programmes have been expanded this year.

Additional reporting by Javier Blas in London

Gulf petro-powers to launch currency – UK Telegraph

Published on: 12/16/2009
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From the London Telegraph…

Gulf petro-powers to launch currency in latest threat to dollar hegemony

Bernanke is not the Problem

Published on: 12/04/2009
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Yesterday a poll was released that only 21% of Americans support giving Helicopter Ben Bernanke a second term as chairman of the US Fed. This compared to 41% thinking that someone else should be given the job. I must say this is quite an improvement. I wonder if Rasmussen would have been able to say 2 years ago that 21% of Americans even knew who Bernanke was? If nothing else, the financial crisis and economic debacle of the past two years have certainly shone some much-needed but unwanted light on the Fed and its clandestine activities. As much as I disapprove of Bernanke’s policies and his handling of virtually every aspect of what has gone on, I’ll be the first to admit that Big Ben isn’t the problem. No, it isn’t him or Greenspan, or Volcker. It’s the institution itself that is the problem.

Mandate #1 – Price Stability

When the private Federal Reserve was chartered in 1913 by the unconstitutional Act of the same name, it stated two specific mandates: maximum employment and price stability. Those were to be the Fed’s areas of activity. However, with virtually no accountability to the American people (except vis a vis the President who appoints the Chairman and the Congress who invariably rubber-stamps such appointments), the Fed was turned loose on the undefended US Dollar.

Dollar Destruction

For years, the American public has been duped into thinking that inflation is necessary for economic growth. This outright lie will likely compete for the title of biggest financial fraud in history. Aided by this unawareness, we have seen a fairly standard 5% rate of annual inflation institutionalized into our economic system. For quite a while, this inflation went virtually undetected as it feasted mainly on the prosperity America had achieved, particularly after the Great Depression. As a nation, we began to spend away our surpluses and attach claims on future economic activity through the great society programs of the 1960’s and the perpetuation of New Deal programs such as Social Security.

Purchasing Power Lost

By the 1970s, however, we’d run short of real money and dealt the global financial system the shock of accepting paper dollars in settlement of our out of control deficit spending. This resulted in a period of increased instability in the 1970s and twin severe recessions. By this time, the devalued Dollar had destroyed enough of our purchasing power that it became necessary in many cases for a second breadwinner to work to maintain the standard of living. In the 1980s and 1990s, Americans began to rely increasingly on consumer credit to bridge the gap left by the waning dollar, and for much of the first decade of this new century, the house became the ATM as another gap filler.

It is no wonder that the recent contraction in consumer credit isn’t touched by the mainstream press; it is that critical to economic growth. This contraction is one of the biggest reasons the federal government has stepped in with record deficit spending. To keep the economic charade going, it has had to.

Contraction!!

The above bevy of charts and data should make it perfectly clear that the Fed has failed in spectacular fashion in terms of price stability. The only thing it has been successful in is ensuring that the devaluation of the Dollar occurred gradually, over time, so as not to alarm Main Street.

Mandate #2 – Maximum Employment

The second part of the dual mandate was maximum employment. In this regard, the central bank has done only a slightly better job. America in general has ranked fairly high globally in terms of low unemployment. However, one thing that must be noted is the Fed’s role in assisting with the exportation of American industry and the high paying manufacturing jobs that went with it. How did the Fed do this? Conventional wisdom would assert that it was solely government trade policies and agreements such as GATT and NAFTA that ruined our manufacturing base. That is certainly true, but these government policies had plenty of help.

A consistently weaker dollar means export advantages. However, there was (and still is, albeit a smaller one) a significant gap between labor costs in foreign countries like much of Asia and the US. So US-based companies could export their manufacturing activities abroad to take advantage of the cheap labor while having export advantages over their foreign competitors because of the weak dollar.
While the bottom line was certainly money and power, it is debatable whether the de-industrialization was done to flood America with cheap imported goods to mask the loss of the Dollar’s purchasing power or if it was done merely to consolidate global power by knocking down the standard of living of the first world. I realize this is going to be a difficult point to argue when one can walk into a store almost anywhere in the country and purchase a myriad of items at ‘Rollback’ prices. However, if you take a look around you and imagine what would be there if it weren’t for the debt load, I think you’ll get a pretty good picture of what is going on here.

What is undeniable is the transition from a goods-producing economy to a service-oriented one. The biggest problem with a country full of employees performing services is that many of these services cannot be exported to pay for the goods we now must import. Despite the technological developments of the past 10 years, a haircut still cannot be exported to China. To be honest, the Fed’s direct impact on the job market has traditionally been much less than its impact on price stability. However, the fact that there has been a covert move to de-industrialize the first world cannot be denied. The fact that much of the impetus for this move came from the policies of the IMF and World Bank with assistance from regional central banks is equally real. A good take home message from this is that central planning almost always works against personal liberty and human rights.

Ramifications

Unfortunately, what has taken place over the years is that the Fed has used these two broad mandates to create for itself a battalion of illicit activities, to the point where mere disclosure of what these activities are would cause an instant depression if you listen to Ben Bernanke, Frederic Mishkin, and others. Attempts to shine the light of day on the Fed’s activities are painted as being ‘dangerous’. I’m sure they are dangerous – to the status quo. Even more disturbing is the Fed’s ability to buy out the entire country while Congress worries about state dinner party crashers and how many subpoenas should be issued. Few commentators have bothered to mention that when the Fed buys $852 Billion in mortgage bonds, it is buying the mortgages of American homes. Maybe your mortgage is now held by an offshore banking cartel even though your mortgage contract was with Countrywide, BAC or any of a thousand originators. Does that bother you? It should.

No, this is not a problem of a single rogue Fed Chairman. It is a problem of a rogue institution, which has stretched way beyond its original charter – and an unconstitutional charter at that. Recent moves to audit the Fed, while noble, will only go so far. I had the opportunity to chat with G. Edward Griffin about this very topic and share his concern that the audit movement will act as a lightning rod for public outrage while allowing the institution itself to continue in a business as usual manner. Congress has the power to yank the Federal Reserve’s ticket; it is about time they used it to give the Fed a 100th birthday present – a pink slip.

Addendum It should come as little surprise to anyone that a truly out of nowhere jobs report comes out just as Bernanke is ‘under fire’ on Capitol Hill. It would be nearly impossible to count all the times this has happened over the past year or so when either the stock market or some political figure has needed a boost. What must be noted is that goods-producing jobs continue to disappear, and that much of the ‘good news’ in the jobs report comes from the fact that temp agencies signed on 52,000 workers in November. Much ballyhooed about this trend is the fact that temp agencies have been adding staff for the last 4 months now. What should be of concern is that there appears to be almost no conversion of those temp jobs into permanent positions at this point in time.

A Picture is Worth A Thousand Words

Published on: 12/01/2009
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: 1 Comment

Just another in the stepping stones along the Road to Financial Ruin for the US Dollar. And also a measure of the stability of our financial system despite what the bleating dimwits on CNBC have to say.

Gold at $1200

Gold…Do we finally have your attention?

Published on: 11/12/2009
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The past two weeks have brought two massive paradigm shifts to a Gold market that has been morphing literally on a daily basis for the past few months. During this time, the pundits and purveyors of misinformation and tripe have done their best to ‘student body left’ Gold back into obscurity as an ancient, barbaric relic. They certainly get an ‘A’ for effort. Now that Gold has made its debut above $1100 an ounce, they’ve switched their tactic and are now calling it a bubble. We’ll deal with why this cannot be the case in a bit.

For the past 9 years now, students of history and common sense have been literally shouting from the rooftops that Gold was the place to be as the monetary tradewinds shifted back in 2000 and the fiat inflationary cycle began to go parabolic. While the multi-trillion dollar deficits might be a surprise to many, for those who understand how these things work, it is just a mundane repetition of history and yet another confirmation that man cannot alter the laws of economics or his own intrinsic predilection to ignore events past.

From 2000 up until recently, there was a constant battle going on. Central banks and the IMF would sell off their physical Gold to suppress the price. Between 1999 and 2002, Gordon Brown, then England’s Chancellor of the Exchequer made the extremely wise decision to sell a good chunk of Mother England’s Gold (395 tonnes) in the $275-$300/oz area. The people were so enthralled by this obvious economic genius that they made him the Prime Minister. All sarcasm aside, this was only one prong of the tactic to suppress Gold prices.

The second prong consisted of large New York and London banks mercilessly shorting Gold in the paper futures markets. For most of the last nine years, the bulk of these futures contracts were rolled over or settled in cash; taking delivery wasn’t really en vogue. There have been many people such as Jim Sinclair working hard in the trenches to educate people on the merits of taking delivery and fighting the cartel by taking their playing chips off the table. Gold in your possession cannot be leased out by a central bank to various third parties, nor can it have futures contracts written against it.

CB Gold Sales

Despite even these herculean suppression efforts, the price of Gold made the journey from $275 to $940 in fairly short order. Surely, there were many gut checks in there; days when the metal lost 5% and the pundits would scream the bubble had burst and it was all over, now please buy some mortgage backed securities. There were some epic struggles like the Battle for $700 shown below.

The $700 Battle

Through the past nine years the game was played under the rules of central banks and the IMF. In the past two months, countries, large players, and even Gold producers have turned the game on its head. Suddenly everyone wants physical metal, not paper promises. And don’t give us the 90% bars either; we want the good stuff. Suddenly, there are instant buyers for IMF sales that were previously guaranteed to suppress prices. Suddenly an IMF sale sparks a rally to a new all-time high. China tells NY and London banks to take a long stroll off a short pier by issuing a directive to its state banks to walk away from commodity derivatives contracts. And, even more telling, central bank selling has been dropping steadily over the past few years and has been nearly nonexistent in 2009.

And finally, Barrick is closing its infamous hedge book. What was once a 20 million ounce boat anchor on the price of Gold has become a multibillion dollar boat anchor around Barrick’s neck and they’ve finally had enough. The book, now around 3 million ounces will be closed by next year according to Barrick boss Aaron Regent.

Oddly enough, it is not the collapsing US Dollar that is driving this decision, but rather a realization that Gold production likely peaked in 2001 and that even a tripling in exploration budgets across the mining sector has yielded precious little in the way of new discoveries. During this entire time period, demand for Gold has been rising consistently, thanks in no small part to the continual abuse of paper currencies by governments around the globe. The existence of serious supply-demand dislocations immediately rules out the prospect of a speculative bubble. Granted, there are plenty of smaller players who are dabbling in Gold without the slightest bit of understanding as to why they’re doing it. The next correction will undoubtedly send many of them running back to mainstream newsletter writers demanding a refund. After all, they were supposed to be living on the beach in 6 months; the advertisement said so!

The shattering of the old paradigm as it relates to Gold is very similar to a paradigm that was shattered with regard to stock investing nearly a decade ago. In that case, the conventional logic was that the market always went up in the long run. And for 18 years, that had absolutely been the case. Even the crash of 1987 hadn’t done much to derail the bull market. However, when we crossed into the new century, the paper paradigm changed with the major indices going NOWHERE in the past 9 years and change. Yet many conventional financial professionals are still investing as if it were 1995 then blaming the markets for client losses when they should be blaming their own inability to see that our world has changed dramatically.

Unfortunately, another of the very negative sides of the attack on Gold have been the ad hominim attacks on proponents of Gold-backed currencies and those who promote the reality that Gold is in fact real money. The attackers use the term ‘Gold Bug’ to paint a picture of little men sitting in fallout shelters wearing tinfoil hats with stashes of food, water, and enough weapons to make the debate about Iran seem pretty foolish. That just isn’t the way it is. Simply put, a Gold bug is someone who understands Gold’s historical role as money and seeks to educate others in this regard while protecting their own assets from the abuses heaped on paper currencies by their custodians.

So today I, an admitted Gold bug, ask: Now… do we finally have your attention?

Barrick: World Gold Supply Runs Out

Published on: 11/11/2009
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

This is something I’ve been talking about for a while now (along with many others). The mainstream has continuously ignored the supply-demand dynamics of the Gold market instead choosing to focus solely on the inflation hedge. If you thought there was an upside before, this will increase it by several orders of magnitude.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579/Barrick-shuts-hedge-book-as-world-gold-supply-runs-out.html

Stimulus Nation

Published on: 10/30/2009
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The result really wasn’t all that surprising. The reaction wasn’t either. On Thursday morning the Commerce Department released its advance GDP reading and proclaimed the end of the recession by asserting the American economy ‘grew’ at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. A previous commentary already pointed out the fact that government borrowing shouldn’t be counted in GDP calculations anyway, so I’ll not repeat that exercise. Certainly there isn’t much to say on this topic that hasn’t already been said. However, there are some salient points that have been glossed over that are worth mentioning.

Cost vs. Price

It would probably be rather hard to find a single American that didn’t know the price tag of the stimulus bill. $787 billion has been included in nearly every news piece regarding the topic. What most people are not aware of, however, is that $787 billion only represents that amount of money actually put into the economy by the feds. It comes nowhere near addressing the actual cost of the program. A good recent example of this miracle of government accounting is the Medicare part D prescription benefit program. The price tag was $394 billion, but the cost is much higher – around $8.7 trillion and counting depending on which numbers you want to use. Granted this represents the net present value of the cost of these ongoing benefits over a 75-year period, but you get the idea.

Fortunately for taxpayers, the stimulus package is not an ongoing expenditure (yet), and as such consists of predefined outlays. Despite this, the total cost of the bill as compiled by the Congressional Budget Office is approximately $3.27 trillion. Amazing in this is the fact that we’ll pay nearly as much for debt service on the stimulus bill ($744 billion) as the measure was supposed to provide to the economy! Talk about sticker shock. The gory details are here.

The question now becomes one of return on investment. What exactly are we going to get for our $3.27 trillion? It had better be good too, because nearly all of it is borrowed from someone – either foreigners or the Fed. Unfortunately, such is not the case. Using the $3.27 trillion projected cost, the ROI for the stimulus bill stands at a whopping -415%. In the private sector, such a revelation would result in a project being killed instantly in the concept phase. Not so in the hallowed halls of Congress where the laws of economics and common sense do not apply.

A Good Deal for Taxpayers?

We have been assured in almost doublespeak fashion that the stimulus bill was necessary, and was in fact, a good deal for the American taxpayer and would create or save millions of jobs.

The ballyhooed cash for clunkers program deemed such a success ended up costing taxpayers around $24,000 for every car sold under the program. This when the actual benefit to the buyer was only $4,500. Some other examples, courtesy of AP, include:

- A company working with the Federal Communications Commission reported that stimulus money paid for 4,231 jobs, when about 1,000 were produced.

- A Georgia community college reported creating 280 jobs with recovery money, but none was created from stimulus spending.

- A Florida childcare center said its stimulus money saved 129 jobs but used the money on raises for existing employees.

One disconcerting admission in the past week came from Christine Romer, the head of the Council of Economic Advisors. She stated that the largest impact from the stimulus had already been felt and that moving forward, the stimulus would only serve to prevent the economy from slipping further rather than contributing to any growth. Sounds like a recovery eh? It would sound as if Ms. Romer is already laying the groundwork for the next brainchild of economic ignorance: Stimulus – The Sequel. Here are her quotes:

“By mid-2010,” she said, “fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to further growth.”

“While job losses will likely end early next year, robust job gains may still be several quarters away,”

“This is not a normal recovery, Coming out of this, we’ve got lots of things working against us.”

Like the laws of economics for starters?

What also must be noted is that the federal deficit alone for FY 2009, which doesn’t included net present value of unfunded liabilities, was $1.4 trillion. The fact that such a large sum of money had to be spent to prevent an all-out collapse of the US economy should be alarming to anyone with a pulse. The fact that current projections are for $1 trillion plus deficits annually for the next ten years should curl your eyebrows.

Let’s assume for a minute that Ms. Romer is correct and that we’ve seen all the bounce we’re going to get from the stimulus. According to AP, the number of jobs created directly by stimulus spending was around 25,000. Sure, there are probably some others that slipped through the cracks and it is very likely that some firms held off on layoffs because of the temporary burst of cash. But lets look at the cost of those jobs JUST in terms of the debt service created by the stimulus bill. Each of the 25,000 jobs created cost the taxpayer $29,600,000 in debt service alone.

Keep in mind that unemployment has been going up constantly during the time when we were getting the maximum ‘benefits’ from the stimulus. As soon as the money wears off, firms will fall back on their original plans, which include cutting back on staff. Another stimulus package will be needed – and soon – to stave off the infamous double dip that many economists and commentators have long been forecasting. The proverb that a house built on a rock will weather any storm, but one built on sand will certainly collapse rings very true in our current state of affairs.

The real question that needs to be posed to anyone supporting additional foolish stimulus needs to focus on an exit strategy. How will additional stimulus create a foundation for fundamental, healthy economic growth? The short answer is that it won’t, but lets make them answer anyway.

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