Tags: andy sutton

“All is Quiet on the Eastern Front?” – Andy Sutton

2011 had been touted as the year that everything would change. Massive paradigm shifts would rock our world and many a prophecy was made regarding financial crises, currency crises, wars, rumors of wars, and there was even one fellow who said the world itself would end, although he later retracted his predictions, but not before his followers had spent their life savings putting up billboards. Such hysteria is certainly the hallmark of times such as these, but we have to keep in mind that just because some of the predicted events didn’t happen yet, we’re a long, long way from being out of the woods. There is an old saying that if you do what you’ve always done; you’re going to get what you’ve always gotten. If we continue to sow the seeds of false fixes and faulty economics, we’re going to continue to reap financial and economic crisis. It really is that simple.

One needs to look no further than Europe and its ongoing (no it isn’t over) debt crisis. The factoids have been around for a while now. Italy’s need to borrow roughly 300 billion Euros just to service its debt in 2012. The absolute failure of Greece’s austerity programs. And to top it off, the installation of shady leaders in both of these countries whose intentions should be questioned from the outset of their tenure simply because they are clearly establishment technocrats. Many of you have soundly criticized me for being ‘extremist’ because I suggested several times last year that what we’re actually seeing are economic coup d’ etats. What else can it be called when an organization enables a country to get into trouble with debt, then offers its own solution (more debt), then installs one of its operators as the country’s leader to make sure the solution is carried out? How would you feel if you had credit card debt that exceeded your yearly income and your friendly bank rep called you and said they’d bail you out by giving you even more credit, then sent a rep to live with you and control your budget when you balked or didn’t make enough spending cuts? Sometimes complicated things make sense when put in simple terms and that is exactly what is going on here.

Austerity is a cruel joke, and the national riots, strikes, and other discord that have resulted from attempts at austerity must be given our attention because it is all coming here. There is no point defined in time when a debt crisis will blossom. Many will argue that America is immune from a Euro-style debt crisis because we have a federal reserve that is willing to buy every single bond if it needs to. They will tell you we are immune because our currency is the ‘gold’ standard (sarcasm mine) of all the world currencies, and it is backed by the full faith and credit of the USGovt. If you’re still able to read this with a straight face, then you know what all this means. It is a paper promise based on an even shakier perception of ‘trust’ in an institution that deserves none. While it is true that we may not get the social anxiety and discord because of austerity, we will certainly get it because of the total loss of confidence in a currency that really died more than 40 years ago.  In the worst case, we’ll get both.

As we move into 2012, the European mess has been tabled for the past month so as not to interfere with the traditions of overconsumption and debt accumulation that normally accompany Thanksgiving through the New Year. I find it sadly ironic that the same Bible that speaks of the birth of Christ also speaks of the consequences of debt and the accumulation thereof. Yet each Christmas we spend well beyond our means not to shower gifts upon Christ as was done in the Bible, but on ourselves and then spend the better part of several months trying to pay it all off. Some never do. This might seem irrelevant, but when you think about it, this is precisely what we’ve been doing on a national scale for decades now. Borrow and spend to fund the current ‘party’, and then push payments well into the future. As Europe is just beginning to find out, the ‘buy now, pay later’ paradigm has become a dog that won’t hunt anymore.

A German Solution

The biggest story so far of 2012 is the negative yields on German debt. Monday’s 3.9 billion Euro auction sported an average yield of -0.0122% .We had a similar situation here in the US in the fall of 2010 when negative yields were achieved on 3-month treasury bills for a short period of time. Obviously, these are not novice investors that are making the decision to pay a government for the privilege of lending it money. These are financial institutions: banks, brokerages, and hedge funds that are conducting these types of transactions. They’re willing to take zero interest, and in fact, pay a small premium for the ability to park their money somewhere they feel is ‘safe’. What is interesting is the fact that anyone considers Germany to be safe. Germany is essentially the Daddy Warbucks of Europe, spreading around the hard work and savings of the German people to the rest of Europe, which can easily be described as the biggest welfare state in the history of mankind. Any sane person would at this point be questioning the continued willingness (forget for a second the ability) of Germany to continue in its role as the piggy bank that never runs dry

So scared are professional investors that they’re willing to pay someone else for the privilege of lending money to them. I’ve heard several analysts comment that these negative yield auctions are merely a social engineering tool that is being used to condition the rest of us to accept near-zero interest rates ad infinitum. This may well be accurate, but just in case it isn’t, we need to consider the naiveté of even pro investors in terms of selecting ‘riskless’ assets. While it is true that in absolute terms there is no such thing – as we’re now learning the hard way, there are certainly better means of lowering your beta than just piling money into a country that is filling its role on borrowed time. Yet the same people who dove into subzero rate auctions in Europe are the same ones who dove into our subzero auctions just over a year ago. Such folly underscores the need for the re-emergence of hard currencies; meaning those backed by gold and/or silver. Resource-backed currencies such as that of Canada aren’t bad, but their value is still at the whim of policymakers, not nailed down to underlying wealth and the ability to consistently balance payments in the long run.

The willingness and even zeal of investors to accept negative rates is a ringing endorsement of the need for a new gold standard.  I am quite sure that it would end up being perverted over time as all prior ‘standards’ have, but in a time of extreme crisis such as where are currently situated, having a bit of financial bedrock certainly wouldn’t be a bad thing. It certainly beats the quicksand we find ourselves trying to navigate today.

The Second Biggest Story of 2012

Buried under the headlines of Presidential politics and ‘who said what about whom today’ is the fact that the current administration has formally requested that Congress increase the debt ceiling by another $1.2 Trillion. I say the following only to point out the acceleration of the debt cycle in the past several years, not to pin the blame on any politician; they’re all responsible. In early 2009, the national debt was roughly $10.6 trillion. The most recent request to take the limit to over $16 Trillion will last the government less than another year if Congressional Budget Office projections prove to be accurate. Our actual debt just passed 100% of GDP. Exhausting this new increase will push it well past the breaking point of the Eurozone. Does anyone really think there will be no consequences for this flagrantly irresponsible fiscal behavior?

While there is no way to pin a date on when the current Keynesian debt paradigm will end, what we can be 100% sure of is that it will end. Will it be at 100.3% debt/GDP or will it be 200.3%? We don’t know for sure, but at some point, the weight of the mistakes of the past will be too much for the future to bear and it will all come crashing down. The system is too big to fail, yet at the same time it is already too big to save. The actions of policymakers to date give little reason for optimism as much of the emphasis is on kicking the can down the road and pushing the inevitable far enough into the future so that it will be someone else’s problem.  What is particularly disturbing is that most of the election year rhetoric focuses on attacks rather than on solutions; so much that you can almost hear the fiddles playing as Rome burns.

Greece’s Clock is STILL Ticking

Editor’s Note: Not again! Weren’t we told a month ago that this problem was fixed? Guess it had to be kept quiet over the shopping season so that spending would be healthy..

Lucas Papademos, Greece’s new technocrat prime minister, faces a race against time to secure a second financing package from the country’s international creditors if Greece is to avoid a disorderly default in March.

The country must redeem a €14.4bn bond on March 20. Almost all analysts agree it will be unable to do so unless its official creditors approve a second €130bn bail-out package and unless a deal is agreed to cut the country’s debt by imposing a 50 per cent haircut on €206bn of privately held bonds.

Greece has already received about €73bn from the first bail-out package of €110bn, financed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. That package was approved in May 2010 to help the country stave off default.

Government officials hope the terms of the bond exchange, known as private sector involvement, or PSI, will be finalised well in advance of the EU summit on January 30. By the same deadline, the government hopes to have reached an agreement on “conditionality” – the set of economic policies and structural reforms required by the EU, IMF and European Central Bank.

Only when these requirements have been met will the so-called troika of lenders agree to disburse a large amount of funds, estimated at €89bn, in the first quarter of this year. That will include money towards implementing PSI, since private creditors will most likely receive €30bn in cash or equivalent upfront, while Greek banks will also be recapitalised by some €30bn.

According to a government official, the ECB will also have to receive guarantees from the EU financial bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to cover the few weeks that Greece will be in “selective default” after implementing PSI, if the bank is to continue providing liquidity to Greek lenders.

If everything goes well, the bond swap offer will be available to private bondholders in the first two weeks of February and the settlement will take another week, meaning PSI should be implemented by the end of that month, government officials say. If the participation rate among bondholders is insufficient, Greece and its EU partners say they will then decide what to do with the holdouts.

Part of the challenge facing Mr Papademos, the former ECB vice-president who took charge of a temporary coalition in mid-November, is to rally the disparate interests in his government, which includes the socialist Pasok party, the conservative New Democracy party and the smaller nationalist LAOS party.

He recently urged union leaders and employers to consent to some sacrifices to make the economy more competitive and to address the concerns of the country’s lenders.

But his coalition government, made up of 48 members, mostly former Pasok ministers and just three of his own choice, has been criticised for being less productive than some had hoped.

“Time is money. More than six weeks have passed since this government was formed, but it has little to show for it,” says one senior official at a large Greek bank who requested anonymity. “I have respect for Papademos but I am a bit disappointed because I expected more.”

The interim government has secured the sixth instalment of €8bn from the first bail-out package, passed the 2012 budget and taken some significant decisions, such as approving a rise in electricity charges. But it has yet to pass important structural reforms and has not reached an agreement with private creditors, although both the Greek side and the Institute of International Finance, representing the leading banks, are optimistic that a deal is close.

An aide close to Mr Papademos admitted that time could have been used more efficiently, but said: “Deliberations between the political parties participating in the government lead to solutions, but take more time.”

He added that the government was determined to resolve all “pending issues” before the troika arrived in Athens in mid-January. An omnibus bill to be tabled in parliament this week should introduce further reforms required under the terms of the bail-out, including lifting barriers to entry for closed professions.

But some analysts, such as Takis Michas, a researcher at private think-tank Forum for Greece, point out that Greece’s problem has often been that bills are passed, but not implemented.

According to Mr Michas, political parties in government have fewer incentives to implement structural reforms when they know that elections will be held soon. This could be particularly true for the New Democracy party, he said, which leads in the polls by a wide margin over Pasok. Most observers expect an election in March or April.

Christos Staikouras, a spokesman on the economy for New Democracy, told the Financial Times: “We are committed to the implementation of structural reforms and privatisations along with other policy initiatives to restart the economy, but we also want to modify other [fiscal] policies which have not worked.”

Just When You Thought You’d Seen it All – Andy Sutton

As I wrote in the last installment regarding the situation in Europe, matters are progressing there much more quickly now as the continent sways back and forth between financial oblivion and a nervous peace brought about by paper promises (yes, paper promises) by central banks around the world. The purpose of this article is not to focus on the behind the scenes of these actions – we’ve already done that, but to examine some of the other outlying issues that are rarely mentioned.

Here in America, we are truly whistling past the graveyard. The financial press cannot stumble over itself enough to constantly remind us how extravagantly we spent money during this past week. The American shopper is back. Really? I still point at various consumer confidence polls, personal income numbers, and general indebtedness and wonder where the juice is coming from for all this consumer spending.

Manufactured Metrics?

One thing that has finally begun to see the light of day is the fact that many of our economic metrics have been and are being manipulated for the sake of public opinion. I’ve covered retail sales, labor market statistics, and GDP ad nauseum in these pages. Well, yesterday zerohedge made a posting showing three more important metrics – and the chicanery becomes even more obvious. In each case (ADP Employment Report, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales), the reported number came in at a minimum of 4 standard deviations above the consensus. What does this mean?

Various media outlets, like Bloomberg, solicit predictions from economists and economic research firms on various economic data series. They take all the estimates and come up with a consensus forecast, which is essentially the average of the estimates they receive. They show the consensus and the range. Then when the actual number is reported, they show that as well. So in the series listed above economists were either off by 4SD or else something is seriously wrong. I think we all understand that the forecasts are never going to be precise on any regular basis, but to miss by 4SD? You could almost blindfold the forecasters and have them throw darts at a wall and get closer than this.

ADP Forecast Consensus

Chicago PMI Consensus

Pending Home Sales Consensus

To drive home the significance of these events, occurrences that are 4 standard deviations from the mean are generally considered ‘outliers’. They are spurious type events that really have no basis in the underlying process. Many times such observations are thrown out depending on the type of study being done. So to have three of them occur within a relatively short time window is a rather big deal. Big enough of a deal that it should at least be a page 2 type news event since there is something obviously wrong with either the forecasting methodology, the reporting methodology – or both

The obvious conclusion here – and zerohedge pointed this out very eloquently – is that we’re being fed a line of baloney and that these ‘positive’ numbers are being reported to keep up the illusion that the economy is recovering when in fact it is not. So, all this said, what about the cyber Monday blitz? I can tell you this much.  I have contacts at both UPS and Fedex and they are seeing very high shipping volume right now. People are in fact spending an awful lot of money. At this point, it appears as though a much smaller proportion of the country is doing the majority of the spending. We’ll see how much of this was on credit in the months to come.  It certainly doesn’t appear as though most people are even bothered by what is going on in the Eurozone even though it affects us directly. They seem either less bothered or less willing to admit that the movie now playing in Europe is coming to their neighborhood theater – and sooner than they’d like.

The Great Liquidity Pump – Take 12

One of the most important issues of all with regard to the Eurozone and its systemic crisis is the prognosis for economic growth. One might wonder why that even matters at this point since the Euro is on the ropes, banks from Paris to Rome to Budapest are in trouble, and nobody seems to have answers. Make no mistake about this – the Eurozone cannot be bailed out; at least not without causing a dislocation of equal magnitude somewhere else. There have been several mainstream economists making the TV circuit asserting that the US could bailout Europe. Really? Many of these same people will use the IMF/World Bank model to make the case for the bailout of the EU. Not going to happen. Not without dislocations. What did take place is that the USFed (among others) stepped in and said it would provide what are essentially unlimited ‘loans’ to European banks to stave off the crisis.

Now we’re back to the coup situation I discussed last time. Is it becoming more clear how this all works? By virtually ignoring the prospects for economic growth in the Eurozone, the central bankers are going to foist a tab on the people of those countries that they will be hard pressed to get out from under for generations – if ever. Economic growth is the one way that a country can pay off its debts. Growth, coupled with sound fiscal behavior, creates surpluses and those surpluses can be used to pay down debt. No economic growth means no paying down debt. The IMF is forecasting that the Eurozone will re-enter recession in 2012. I will assert here that the EU never left the recession that started back in late 2007. I’ve showed the data for the US; and the EU has clearly followed suit.

Much of the way the crisis is being handled in Europe is along the same lines as what was done here in America back in 2008. Focus was placed largely on saving banks whose bets had gone terribly wrong. Only cursory attention was given to the macroeconomic picture and you can easily see what happened here. We now have fat banks, bursting with ‘profits’ thanks to bailouts and accounting rule changes (FASB Rule 157, etc) while we have an economy that is still churning out foreclosed homes faster than a broken widget machine. Trading revenue is up at the big wire houses while our kids are paying over 10% on student loans and Mr. and Mrs. America are shelling out an average of 14% on credit card debt. This is precisely what is going to happen in Europe. And to make matters worse, the people of those countries are going to be on the hook for the bill, much in the same way we are on the hook for 2008.

And oddly enough, the same pledges were made back on September 16 of this year. Quoting a Bloomberg News article:

“The Bank of England joined the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan on Thursday to announce that they would flood money markets with dollars over the coming months.

The move, on the third anniversary of the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, sent shares soaring in banks heavily exposed to debt default by Greece and the other struggling members of the 17-nation Eurozone. The euro, which had been falling in recent days, rebounded, rising roughly 1% in European trading on Thursday.

Speaking in Washington, Christine Lagarde, the president of the International Monetary Fund, said: “They [the banks] are getting together and acting together. To me, that is the most important message.”

Perhaps the biggest untold byline of yesterday’s aberrant policy decision by central bankers was to point out that first it was illegal for our fed to do what it did. It has two mandates: price stability and maximum employment. Printing untold trillions to bail out banks in the Eurozone hardly seems like a recipe to ensure price stability to me. And they haven’t exactly done a banner job on the employment side either. So when government figures and policy analysts say that no taxpayer monies are being used, they are only partially correct. In fact it is much worse than if they had simply given over a year’s tax receipts to the ECB for the purposes of stemming the tide.

It is not so much your money that has been pledged to this completely unworthy endeavor, rather it is your future labor. You will work harder, longer, and enjoy less fruits of that labor all in the name of preserving the status quo of a financial system that will only be back for another round of feeding once the shock from these events has worn off.

Andy Sutton On Liberty Talk Radio – 10/19/2011

Banks Try to Stave off Euro Crisis with ‘Unlimited’ Loans

Fears of a deepening of Europe‘s debt crisis have prompted the world’s leading central banks to pump US dollars into the financial system, in a co-ordinated action designed to boost market confidence.

The Bank of England joined the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan on Thursday to announce that they would flood money markets with dollars over the coming months.

The move, on the third anniversary of the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, sent shares soaring in banks heavily exposed to debt default by Greece and the other struggling members of the 17-nation eurozone. The euro, which had been falling in recent days, rebounded, rising roughly 1% in European trading on Thursday.

Speaking in Washington, Christine Lagarde, the president of the International Monetary Fund, said: “They [the banks] are getting together and acting together. To me, that is the most important message.”

Lagarde warned that more action was needed.

“We have entered into a dangerous phase of the crisis,” she said. There is still a path to recovery, Lagarde said, but it is a “narrow” one.

Under the terms of the deal, banks will be able to bid for unlimited amounts of US dollars at fixed interest rates in three separate auctions. The first of these will be on 12 October.

Nick Parsons, head of strategy at National Australia Bank, said the decision to provide unlimited liquidity well into 2012 was a big show of support to the global banking system.

But he added: “If Greece were to default, an announcement that there would be unlimited liquidity available from central banks is one of the things you would want to have in place beforehand.”

The move comes as Europe’s finance ministers gather in Wroclaw, Poland, for a meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council, known as Ecofin. US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner is set to address the meeting for the first time, and is expected to call for decisive action.

Putting further pressure on Europe’s finance ministers, the European Commission cut its growth forecast for the euro area for the rest of they year.

The commission predicted Europe would barely avoid a double-dip recession, and that growth would come to a “virtual standstill” towards the end of the year.

Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Analytics, said the move to pump dollars into the system would help in the short term, but all eyes were still on the meeting of European finance ministers.

“It’s not a cure; it’s a temporary palliative,” said Faucher. “The big question is: is this enough in the short term to get us to a longer term solution? There is a potential for a really huge financial crisis in Europe. Things are bad now, but they could get a lot worse.”

Hedge fund billionaire George Soros said the Euro crisis looked “more intractable” than the 2008 financial crisis. Writing in the New York Review of Books, Soros said it was “imperative to prepare for the possibility of default and defection from the eurozone in the case of Greece, Portugal, and perhaps Ireland.”

He said massive political changes were needed in Europe, including the establshment of a European Treasury, ” to forestall a possible financial meltdown and another Great Depression.”

In London, the FTSE 100 index closed up 110 points at 5337, over 2%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index gained even in the face of poor economic figures.

August Liberty Talk Radio Appearance Available

We apologize for this being two weeks in arrears; Andy Sutton’s 8/18/11 on Liberty Talk Radio is available Here.

Topics discussed included the banker-crafted debt deal, AIER economic metrics and manufacturing forecast, general market conditions, and caller comments/questions.

Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion From Fed

 

 

 

 

 

 

Editor’s Note: We tried to tell people about this three years ago. Nobody wanted to believe that the housing ‘crisis’ and resulting credit mess was nothing more than a thinly veiled bank robbery. However, contrary to popular opinion, it wasn’t the federal reserve bank that got robbed; it was the American people. it continues to amaze us how people couldn’t care less. This lack of concern only guarantees that they’ll be back for another round.

Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.

By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. The largest borrower, Morgan Stanley (MS), got as much as $107.3 billion, while Citigroup took $99.5 billion and Bank of America $91.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress.

“These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.”

Foreign Borrowers

It wasn’t just American finance. Almost half of the Fed’s top 30 borrowers, measured by peak balances, were European firms. They included Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, which took $84.5 billion, the most of any non-U.S. lender, and Zurich-based UBS AG (UBSN), which got $77.2 billion. Germany’s Hypo Real Estate Holding AG borrowed $28.7 billion, an average of $21 million for each of its 1,366 employees.

The largest borrowers also included Dexia SA (DEXB), Belgium’s biggest bank by assets, and Societe Generale SA, based in Paris, whose bond-insurance prices have surged in the past month as investors speculated that the spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe might increase their chances of default.

The $1.2 trillion peak on Dec. 5, 2008 — the combined outstanding balance under the seven programs tallied by Bloomberg — was almost three times the size of the U.S. federal budget deficit that year and more than the total earnings of all federally insured banks in the U.S. for the decade through 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Peak Balance

The balance was more than 25 times the Fed’s pre-crisis lending peak of $46 billion on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon. Denominated in $1 bills, the $1.2 trillion would fill 539 Olympic-size swimming pools.

The Fed has said it had “no credit losses” on any of the emergency programs, and a report by Federal Reserve Bank of New York staffers in February said the central bank netted $13 billion in interest and fee income from the programs from August 2007 through December 2009.

“We designed our broad-based emergency programs to both effectively stem the crisis and minimize the financial risks to the U.S. taxpayer,” said James Clouse, deputy director of the Fed’s division of monetary affairs in Washington. “Nearly all of our emergency-lending programs have been closed. We have incurred no losses and expect no losses.”

While the 18-month U.S. recession that ended in June 2009 after a 5.1 percent contraction in gross domestic product was nowhere near the four-year, 27 percent decline between August 1929 and March 1933, banks and the economy remain stressed.

Odds of Recession

The odds of another recession have climbed during the past six months, according to five of nine economists on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, an academic panel that dates recessions.

Bank of America’s bond-insurance prices last week surged to a rate of $342,040 a year for coverage on $10 million of debt, above whereLehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ)’s bond insurance was priced at the start of the week before the firm collapsed. Citigroup’s shares are trading below the split-adjusted price of $28 that they hit on the day the bank’s Fed loans peaked in January 2009. The U.S. unemployment rate was at 9.1 percent in July, compared with 4.7 percent in November 2007, before the recession began.

Homeowners are more than 30 days past due on their mortgage payments on 4.38 million properties in the U.S., and 2.16 million more properties are in foreclosure, representing a combined $1.27 trillion of unpaid principal, estimates Jacksonville, Florida-based Lender Processing Services Inc.

Liquidity Requirements

“Why in hell does the Federal Reserve seem to be able to find the way to help these entities that are gigantic?” U.S. Representative Walter B. Jones, a Republican from North Carolina, said at a June 1 congressional hearing in Washington on Fed lending disclosure. “They get help when the average businessperson down in eastern North Carolina, and probably across America, they can’t even go to a bank they’ve been banking with for 15 or 20 years and get a loan.”

The sheer size of the Fed loans bolsters the case for minimum liquidity requirements that global regulators last year agreed to impose on banks for the first time, said Litan, now a vice president at the Kansas City, Missouri-based Kauffman Foundation, which supports entrepreneurship research. Liquidity refers to the daily funds a bank needs to operate, including cash to cover depositor withdrawals.

The rules, which mandate that banks keep enough cash and easily liquidated assets on hand to survive a 30-day crisis, don’t take effect until 2015. Another proposed requirement for lenders to keep “stable funding” for a one-year horizon was postponed until at least 2018 after banks showed they’d have to raise as much as $6 trillion in new long-term debt to comply.

‘Stark Illustration’

Regulators are “not going to go far enough to prevent this from happening again,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at theInternational Monetary Fund and now an economics professor at Harvard University.

Reforms undertaken since the crisis might not insulate U.S. markets and financial institutions from the sovereign budget and debt crises facing Greece, Ireland and Portugal, according to the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council, a 10-member body created by the Dodd-Frank Act and led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

“The recent financial crisis provides a stark illustration of how quickly confidence can erode and financial contagion can spread,” the council said in its July 26 report.

Any new rescues by the U.S. central bank would be governed by transparency laws adopted in 2010 that require the Fed to disclose borrowers after two years.

21,000 Transactions

Fed officials argued for more than two years that releasing the identities of borrowers and the terms of their loans would stigmatize banks, damaging stock prices or leading to depositor runs. A group of the biggest commercial banks last year asked the U.S. Supreme Court to keep at least some Fed borrowings secret. In March, the high court declined to hear that appeal, and the central bank made an unprecedented release of records.

Data gleaned from 29,346 pages of documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and from other Fed databases of more than 21,000 transactions make clear for the first time how deeply the world’s largest banks depended on the U.S. central bank to stave off cash shortfalls. Even as the firms asserted in news releases or earnings calls that they had ample cash, they drew Fed funding in secret, avoiding the stigma of weakness.

Morgan Stanley Borrowing

Two weeks after Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008, Morgan Stanley countered concerns that it might be next to go by announcing it had “strong capital and liquidity positions.” The statement, in a Sept. 29, 2008, press release about a $9 billion investment from Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., said nothing about Morgan Stanley’s Fed loans.

That was the same day as the firm’s $107.3 billion peak in borrowing from the central bank, which was the source of almost all of Morgan Stanley’s available cash, according to the lending data and documents released more than two years later by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The amount was almost three times the company’s total profits over the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Mark Lake, a spokesman for New York-based Morgan Stanley, said the crisis caused the industry to “fundamentally re- evaluate” the way it manages its cash.

“We have taken the lessons we learned from that period and applied them to our liquidity-management program to protect both our franchise and our clients going forward,” Lake said. He declined to say what changes the bank had made.

Acceptable Collateral

In most cases, the Fed demanded collateral for its loans — Treasuries or corporate bonds and mortgage bonds that could be seized and sold if the money wasn’t repaid. That meant the central bank’s main risk was that collateral pledged by banks that collapsed would be worth less than the amount borrowed.

As the crisis deepened, the Fed relaxed its standards for acceptable collateral. Typically, the central bank accepts only bonds with the highest credit grades, such as U.S. Treasuries. By late 2008, it was accepting “junk” bonds, those rated below investment grade. It even took stocks, which are first to get wiped out in a liquidation.

Morgan Stanley borrowed $61.3 billion from one Fed program in September 2008, pledging a total of $66.5 billion of collateral, according to Fed documents. Securities pledged included $21.5 billion of stocks, $6.68 billion of bonds with a junk credit rating and $19.5 billion of assets with an “unknown rating,” according to the documents. About 25 percent of the collateral was foreign-denominated.

‘Willingness to Lend’

“What you’re looking at is a willingness to lend against just about anything,” said Robert Eisenbeis, a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and now chief monetary economist in Atlanta for Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors Inc.

The lack of private-market alternatives for lending shows how skeptical trading partners and depositors were about the value of the banks’ capital and collateral, Eisenbeis said.

“The markets were just plain shut,” said Tanya Azarchs, former head of bank research at Standard & Poor’s and now an independent consultant in Briarcliff Manor, New York. “If you needed liquidity, there was only one place to go.”

Even banks that survived the crisis without government capital injections tapped the Fed through programs that promised confidentiality. London-based Barclays Plc (BARC) borrowed $64.9 billion and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) got $66 billion. Sarah MacDonald, a spokeswoman for Barclays, and John Gallagher, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment.

Below-Market Rates

While the Fed’s last-resort lending programs generally charge above-market interest rates to deter routine borrowing, that practice sometimes flipped during the crisis. On Oct. 20, 2008, for example, the central bank agreed to make $113.3 billion of 28-day loans through its Term Auction Facility at a rate of 1.1 percent, according to a press release at the time.

The rate was less than a third of the 3.8 percent that banks were charging each other to make one-month loans on that day. Bank of America and Wachovia Corp. each got $15 billion of the 1.1 percent TAF loans, followed by Royal Bank of Scotland’s RBS Citizens NA unit with $10 billion, Fed data show.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the New York-based lender that touted its “fortress balance sheet” at least 16 times in press releases and conference calls from October 2007 through February 2010, took as much as $48 billion in February 2009 from TAF. The facility, set up in December 2007, was a temporary alternative to the discount window, the central bank’s 97-year-old primary lending program to help banks in a cash squeeze.

‘Larger Than TARP’

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), which in 2007 was the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, borrowed $69 billion from the Fed on Dec. 31, 2008. Among the programs New York-based Goldman Sachs tapped after the Lehman bankruptcy was the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, or PDCF, designed to lend money to brokerage firms ineligible for the Fed’s bank-lending programs.

Michael Duvally, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs, declined to comment.

The Fed’s liquidity lifelines may increase the chances that banks engage in excessive risk-taking with borrowed money, Rogoff said. Such a phenomenon, known as moral hazard, occurs if banks assume the Fed will be there when they need it, he said. The size of bank borrowings “certainly shows the Fed bailout was in many ways much larger than TARP,” Rogoff said.

TARP is the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, a $700 billion bank-bailout fund that provided capital injections of $45 billion each to Citigroup and Bank of America, and $10 billion to Morgan Stanley. Because most of the Treasury’s investments were made in the form of preferred stock, they were considered riskier than the Fed’s loans, a type of senior debt.

Dodd-Frank Requirement

In December, in response to the Dodd-Frank Act, the Fed released 18 databases detailing its temporary emergency-lending programs.

Congress required the disclosure after the Fed rejected requests in 2008 from the late Bloomberg News reporter Mark Pittman and other media companies that sought details of its loans under the Freedom of Information Act. After fighting to keep the data secret, the central bank released unprecedented information about its discount window and other programs under court order in March 2011.

Bloomberg News combined Fed databases made available in December and July with the discount-window records released in March to produce daily totals for banks across all the programs, including the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, Commercial Paper Funding Facility, discount window, PDCF, TAF, Term Securities Lending Facility and single-tranche open market operations. The programs supplied loans from August 2007 through April 2010.

Rolling Crisis

The result is a timeline illustrating how the credit crisis rolled from one bank to another as financial contagion spread.

Fed borrowings by Societe Generale (GLE), France’s second-biggest bank, peaked at $17.4 billion in May 2008, four months after the Paris-based lender announced a record 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) loss on unauthorized stock-index futures bets by former trader Jerome Kerviel.

Morgan Stanley’s top borrowing came four months later, after Lehman’s bankruptcy. Citigroup crested in January 2009, as did 43 other banks, the largest number of peak borrowings for any month during the crisis. Bank of America’s heaviest borrowings came two months after that.

Sixteen banks, including Plano, Texas-based Beal Financial Corp. and Jacksonville, Florida-based EverBank Financial Corp., didn’t hit their peaks until February or March 2010.

“At no point was there a material risk to the Fed or the taxpayer, as the loan required collateralization,” said Reshma Fernandes, a spokeswoman for EverBank, which borrowed as much as $250 million.

Using Subsidiaries

Banks maximized their borrowings by using subsidiaries to tap Fed programs at the same time. In March 2009, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America drew $78 billion from one facility through two banking units and $11.8 billion more from two other programs through its broker-dealer, Bank of America Securities LLC.

Banks also shifted balances among Fed programs. Many preferred the TAF because it carried less of the stigma associated with the discount window, often seen as the last resort for lenders in distress, according to a January 2011 paper by researchers at the New York Fed.

After the Lehman bankruptcy, hedge funds began pulling their cash out of Morgan Stanley, fearing it might be the next to collapse, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission said in a January report, citing interviews with former Chief Executive Officer John Mack and then-Treasurer David Wong.

Borrowings Surge

Morgan Stanley’s borrowings from the PDCF surged to $61.3 billion on Sept. 29 from zero on Sept. 14. At the same time, its loans from the Term Securities Lending Facility, or TSLF, rose to $36 billion from $3.5 billion. Morgan Stanley treasury reports released by the FCIC show the firm had $99.8 billion of liquidity on Sept. 29, a figure that included Fed borrowings.

“The cash flow was all drying up,” said Roger Lister, a former Fed economist who’s now head of financial-institutions coverage at credit-rating firm DBRS Inc. in New York. “Did they have enough resources to cope with it? The answer would be yes, but they needed the Fed.”

While Morgan Stanley’s Fed demands were the most acute, Citigroup was the most chronic borrower among the largest U.S. banks. The New York-based company borrowed $10 million from the TAF on the program’s first day in December 2007 and had more than $25 billion outstanding under all programs by May 2008, according to Bloomberg data. By Nov. 21, when Citigroup began talks with the government to get a $20 billion capital injection on top of the $25 billion received a month earlier, its Fed borrowings had doubled to about $50 billion.

Tapping Six Programs

Over the next two months the amount almost doubled again. On Jan. 20, as the stock sank below $3 for the first time in 16 years amid investor concerns that the lender’s capital cushion might be inadequate, Citigroup was tapping six Fed programs at once. Its total borrowings amounted to more than twice the federal Department of Education’s 2011 budget.

Citigroup was in debt to the Fed on seven out of every 10 days from August 2007 through April 2010, the most frequent U.S. borrower among the 100 biggest publicly traded firms by pre- crisis market valuation. On average, the bank had a daily balance at the Fed of almost $20 billion.

“Citibank basically was sustained by the Fed for a very long time,” said Richard Herring, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia who has studied financial crises.

Jon Diat, a Citigroup spokesman, said the bank made use of programs that “achieved the goal of instilling confidence in the markets.”

‘Help Motivate Others’

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a letter to shareholders last year that his bank avoided many government programs. It did use TAF, Dimon said in the letter, “but this was done at the request of the Federal Reserve to help motivate others to use the system.”

The bank, the second-largest in the U.S. by assets, first tapped the TAF in May 2008, six months after the program debuted, and then zeroed out its borrowings in September 2008. The next month, it started using TAF again.

On Feb. 26, 2009, more than a year after TAF’s creation, JPMorgan’s borrowings under the program climbed to $48 billion. On that day, the overall TAF balance for all banks hit its peak, $493.2 billion. Two weeks later, the figure began declining.

“Our prior comment is accurate,” said Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for JPMorgan.

‘The Cheapest Source’

Herring, the University of Pennsylvania professor, said some banks may have used the program to maximize profits by borrowing “from the cheapest source, because this was supposed to be secret and never revealed.”

Whether banks needed the Fed’s money for survival or used it because it offered advantageous rates, the central bank’s lender-of-last-resort role amounts to a free insurance policy for banks guaranteeing the arrival of funds in a disaster, Herring said.

An IMF report last October said regulators should consider charging banks for the right to access central bank funds.

“The extent of official intervention is clear evidence that systemic liquidity risks were under-recognized and mispriced by both the private and public sectors,” the IMF said in a separate report in April.

Access to Fed backup support “leads you to subject yourself to greater risks,” Herring said. “If it’s not there, you’re not going to take the risks that would put you in trouble and require you to have access to that kind of funding.”

7/20/11 Liberty Talk Radio Appearance

Andy Sutton’s 7/20 appearance with Joe Cristiano is available for listening. Click Here to hear the discussion on leading economic indicator biases, possible near-term resolutions (Band-Aids) to the debt crisis in America, and caller questions and comments.

Andy’s July Liberty Talk Radio Appearance

Dear Subscribers, Clients, and Friends of the Firm,

This Wednesday, July 20th, I will be appearing again on Liberty Talk Radio. I am determined to get some more folks to call in – so here it is. Anyone who calls in and mentions this email will get a complimentary three-month subscription to The Centsible Investor! How’s that for simple? See below for call-in information.

Among other things, Joe and I will be discussing the idea of leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators. The Conference Board has been attempting to dazzle the markets and goose consumers with reports of good leading indicators for many months now, but the question remains leading to what?

We’ll take this topic as a follow-up to my August 21, 2009 editorial regarding the various types of indicators and their relevance in terms of forecasting. The rest of the show will be dedicated to your questions, plus some comments and observations I’ve gotten from people on Main Street over the past several months. We’ll be more than happy to take your calls. You can reach the show directly at (646) 652-4620 or toll-free at (888) 773-4496. You can also listen at his Blog Talk Radio Page.

 

July’s Centsible Investor is Available

This month’s keynote focuses on an alternative measure of economic output: the Cobb-Douglas output function. While its critics cite the simplicity, it is just that which makes it desirable for us to use as a benchmark. We don’t need to worry about hedonics. What Cobb-Douglas is telling us about output is that all the government spending vis a vis borrowing has done very little to affect output; and we’re paying an awful price for precious little. In addition debt service is eating away at the economy’s legitimate capital pool. If we are to have a meaningful recovery, these trends must be reversed. All eyes are on Washington for leadership, but in typical fashion, our politicians are more worried about the next election than doing the right thing.

In energy, we do a reset on the global geopolitical picture. The SPR still has not been tapped as of yesterday’s EIA energy report despite assurances to the markets that it would be done. It is now looking like this announcement was more fluff than substance to knock prices down a few bucks knowing they’d go right up again as soon as Bernanke breathed the possibility of another round of public destruction of the dollar (QE).

Gold has hit another record high on the above news and even silver got into the action this week, rising almost 10% thus far. What damage have the CME margin hikes done and more importantly, cui bono? Who benefitted from the big hit on silver (which did bleed into some other commodities as well)? We lay out the big picture on metals. Summer is generally a slow time for metals, but they’re already heating up and it is only July.

We’ll lay out our unique perspective on our newest additions to the model portfolio. It will be quite surprising to many, but the rationale is simple and easy to follow. We also update on our interest rate model, which hit another home run recently as well as other conditions in the markets as well as an important development in the big picture for equity markets. Don’t miss an issue!

For more information or to subscribe, Click Here

 

 

 

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Welcome , today is Sunday, 02/05/2012