This month’s keynote focuses on resetting our thinking after the latest blowout. Some very important big picture changes took place in the past month and we outline those and what the effects are likely to be moving forward. Despite the past 3 days of victories in the equity markets, make no mistake this is nowhere near over.

In energy, we dovetail the recent move to effectively double the fuel standard with the constant insistence by energy market ‘insiders’ and government types that we’re literally drowning in oil. Something isn’t right here and we tear these arguments apart.

In metals, we look at gold’s proxy performance for the stability of the financial system now vs. 2008 and we demonstrate why what just happened in the markets was nothing like 2008 despite the media’s persistent rhetoric to the contrary. We also discuss the economic ‘kill-switch’ built into the debt deal and the economic equivalent of a commercial signal failure. If you want to know the intricacies of how everything is bolted together, this is information you don’t want to miss.

In the market update, we show our long-term analysis from May 2009. It was right on target and has developed precisely as outlined over two years ago. This has big implications for anyone holding paper assets and needs to be part of everyone’s decision-making process.

This is probably the most important issue of CI that we’ve ever released. If you’re a subscriber or client, take some time and seriously digest its contents. If you’re on the fence, consider becoming a subscriber. We realize times are tough and as such have lowered prices to reflect the troubles people are having financially. This is much more than just a stock-picking newsletter; much of our research pertains to the general economy and how those developments affect consumers at a variety of levels. If you find our work beneficial, please refer us to a friend or colleague; it is how we are able to continue providing this analysis.

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This Wednesday, July 20th, I will be appearing again on Liberty Talk Radio. I am determined to get some more folks to call in – so here it is. Anyone who calls in and mentions this email will get a complimentary three-month subscription to The Centsible Investor! How’s that for simple? See below for call-in information.

Among other things, Joe and I will be discussing the idea of leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators. The Conference Board has been attempting to dazzle the markets and goose consumers with reports of good leading indicators for many months now, but the question remains leading to what?

We’ll take this topic as a follow-up to my August 21, 2009 editorial regarding the various types of indicators and their relevance in terms of forecasting. The rest of the show will be dedicated to your questions, plus some comments and observations I’ve gotten from people on Main Street over the past several months. We’ll be more than happy to take your calls. You can reach the show directly at (646) 652-4620 or toll-free at (888) 773-4496. You can also listen at his Blog Talk Radio Page.

In energy, we do a reset on the global geopolitical picture. The SPR still has not been tapped as of yesterday’s EIA energy report despite assurances to the markets that it would be done. It is now looking like this announcement was more fluff than substance to knock prices down a few bucks knowing they’d go right up again as soon as Bernanke breathed the possibility of another round of public destruction of the dollar (QE).

Gold has hit another record high on the above news and even silver got into the action this week, rising almost 10% thus far. What damage have the CME margin hikes done and more importantly, cui bono? Who benefitted from the big hit on silver (which did bleed into some other commodities as well)? We lay out the big picture on metals. Summer is generally a slow time for metals, but they’re already heating up and it is only July.

We’ll lay out our unique perspective on our newest additions to the model portfolio. It will be quite surprising to many, but the rationale is simple and easy to follow. We also update on our interest rate model, which hit another home run recently as well as other conditions in the markets as well as an important development in the big picture for equity markets. Don’t miss an issue!

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The deepening equity purge, coupled with continued weakness in silver cost the model portfolio about 3% this past month. While we’re not at all happy with 3%, the paper equity markets are down now around 6% during the same period, so that is encouraging. Our two newest components in the dividend slice, ironically, are both showing modest gains since we added them at the end of April and are providing some much-needed diversification.

This month’s keynote is called ‘Crash Signature’ and takes a look at what a US default will look like on Main Street. We cover the idea of the outright default as well as the slower, inflationary type in situ default where the Fed assists the USGovt in hyperinflating away its debts. Our major creditors are already onto this game. There is actionable information in this article as it gives you some easy steps that will help mitigate the effects of either scenario.

Energy continues to be a hot area. OPEC is now publicly admitting the likelihood of a shortage of crude oil this fall. Saudi Arabia has promised (once again) to pump all that is needed. We doubt they can. We are not alone. Resource constraints are the order of the day moving forward. Better get used to it. Oddly, the same types of changes in living style that will help you deal with a default are the same types of measures that will help you lessen the blow of peak oil.

In our metals report, we analyze CME’s latest salvo against the precious metals markets. They are losing their metal and the battle to keep prices contained. These margin requirement hikes are one of the last weapons left in their arsenal and the fact they are using it means we’re that much closer to the end of the precious metals cartel. We are still offering gratis consults to any of our year or longer subscribers on precious metals. With all the dislocations in the markets right now and what is likely to get even worse moving forward, why not take advantage? It is a free service for any subscriber who has been with us at least a year or is currently paid up for a subscription of a year or more. If you know someone who might benefit from this valuable service, please pass our information along to them – it is how we grow.

When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.

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Much of the public focus is on the nation’s public debt, which is $14.3 trillion. But that doesn’t include money guaranteed for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which comes to close to $50 trillion, according to government figures.

The government also is on the hook for other debts such as the programs related to the bailout of the financial system following the crisis of 2008 and 2009, government figures show.

Taken together, Gross puts the total at “nearly $100 trillion,” that while perhaps a bit on the high side, places the country in a highly unenviable fiscal position that he said won’t find a solution overnight.

“To think that we can reduce that within the space of a year or two is not a realistic assumption,” Gross said in a live interview. “That’s much more than Greece, that’s much more than almost any other developed country. We’ve got a problem and we have to get after it quickly.”

Gross spoke following a report that US banks were likely to scale back on their use of Treasurys as collateral against derivatives and other transactions. Bank heads say that move is likely to happen in August as Congress dithers over whether to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, according to a report in the Financial Times.

The move reflects increasing concern from the financial community over whether the US is capable of a political solution to its burgeoning debt and deficit problems.

“We’ve always wondered who will buy Treasurys” after the Federal Reserve purchases the last of its $600 billion to end the second leg of its quantitative easing program later this month, Gross said. “It’s certainly not Pimco and it’s probably not the bond funds of the world.”

Pimco, based in Newport Beach, Calif., manages more than $1.2 trillion in assets and runs the largest bond fund in the world.

Gross confirmed a report Friday that Pimco has marginally increased its Treasurys allotment—from 4 percent to 5 percent—but still has little interest in US debt and its low yields that are in place despite an ugly national balance sheet.

“Why wouldn’t an investor buy Canada with a better balance sheet or Australia with a better balance sheet with interest rates at 1 or 2 or 3 percent higher?” he said. “It simply doesn’t make any sense.”

Should the debt problem in Greece explode into a full-blown crisis—an International Monetary Fund bailout has prevented a full-scale meltdown so far—Gross predicted that German debt, not that of the US, would be the safe-haven of choice for global investors.

This month’s discussion is key for anyone who wants a better understanding of the implications of the USA reaching the statutory borrowing limit. How will it affect you? Will it affect you? When will it affect you? Listen in to find out.

They’ll also be discussing the consumer’s very own role and participation in the creation of inflation – yes, when we as consumers get upset about high gas prices, we have ourselves in large part to blame. Andy will explain the linkage between the consumer’s spending choices and the creation of inflation by the banking system.

Please feel free to call in with your questions and/or comments. The numbers for Liberty Talk Radio are (888) 773-4496 or direct (646) 652-4620. Click Here to Listen

Despite the blowout in commodities and the sideways/down action in stocks, the model portfolio lost just .3% in the past month. The portfolio has been bolstered by diversification and also by a few new strategic additions to the dividend section, which we outlined in an earlier dispatch.

This month’s keynote article is an expose of the federal reserve. The article delves into the historical events surrounding the creation of the fed, some comments by various fed officials which lay bare the truth that this was an entity that was created to commit legalized theft via inflation. We explain in easy to understand terms the main mechanisms by which the fed accomplishes this task. Hopefully after reading this piece, you’ll be convinced of the need for a full Congressional investigation (not a whitewash) of this institution and its eventual demise.

The energy update focuses on JP Morgan’s validation of the work we’ve been doing for well over a year – there is a growing disconnect between global oil supply and demand and that we’ve been experiencing supply deficits in the US for some time now.

This month’s metals report is critical in terms of getting a firm understanding of what exactly is going on in the commodities markets recently. The media would have you believe (once again) that the bull market in commodities is over. Why does the media despise commodities so? Because commodities are an excellent proxy of the inflation created by central banks and the bank-sponsored media must do its bidding.

In our equity market update, we look across our full range of indicators: short, medium, and long term and analyze potential disturbances in the markets moving forward. We also outline several triggering mechanisms for these disturbances and give you some signposts to watch for as you navigate through the reams of information you come across daily.

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Joe said to pass along his toll-free call-in number for anyone interested in asking a question or getting into the discussion – (888) 773-4496. The show can be heard on the Internet by visiting blogtalkradio.com

I’ve been appearing on this show monthly for quite a while, but Joe and I both feel that this month’s discussion is going to be key given everything going on, hence the dispatch to everyone. The show will also be posted on our website this Thursday morning for anyone who missed the original broadcast.