Archives: August 2011

Clueless or Crafty Bernanke??

Editor’s Note: We continue to see ‘alternative’ news sources pushing the idea that Bernanke is clueless and this is all nothing more than a big accident. It is not; the circumstantial and physical evidence is overwhelming. Hold your alternative news sources’ feet to the fire over these types of innuendos.

For most informed people in the United States, it has become clear that over the past century the private Federal Reserve has been doing nothing other than systematically devaluing and debasing the dollar while destroying the American economy in every way imaginable.

This notion was just made that much more concrete after this year’s central bank meeting in the Teton Mountains of Wyoming.

The stock market continues to be marked with increased volatility, which some analysts believe will be the new norm for months or years to come, and hiring has slowed while the jobless rate, which is now conservatively exceeding 9%, continues to rise.

By all metrics the American economy has not recovered in any way and by most metrics it is continuing to degrade at a dangerous pace.

However, the mainstream media continues to pretend that none of this is true by pointing to small rallies in certain stock sectors and currencies as proof of “investors […] starting to entertain the notion that the economy may yet avoid slipping back into recession” as Reuters reports.

Where they get the support for this notion is beyond me as even Ben Shalom Bernanke, the current chairman of the private Federal Reserve cartel, has yet to present any solutions or even ways to mitigate this economic disaster.

Instead of presenting a single solution, all Bernanke is able to do at this point is give hollow guarantees and weak assurances of an economic recovery.

Take, for instance, Alan Ruskin, the head of G10 currency strategy at Germany’s Deutsche Bank, who was quoted by Reuters as saying, “For all the focus on QE issues, we should not lose sight of (Bernanke’s) most important message that the Fed does not foresee the economy heading into renewed recession, even if there is plenty of fragility.”

Of course, like Bernanke, Ruskin could not give a single concrete answer or solution if pressed to do so. Then again, the mainstream media fails to ever press for answers from these individuals, instead opting to pretend these ambiguous and questionable statements are somehow legitimate.

Recently I published an article going over just a few of the options we have to actually get America back on the road to economic recovery.

Unsurprisingly, not a single of these options has been offered as a solution by the corrupt and highly criminal banking cartels like the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund or their media lapdogs.

Why? Because these organizations have no real interest in economic recovery so long as it means clamping down on rampant speculation, high-frequency trading and stock manipulation, fraudulent savings and loan practices and anything that impinges on the ludicrous profit margins afforded to multinational corporations thanks to “free trade” and globalism.

Like their American counterparts, the overseas banking cartels are making ambiguous demands of politicians. Take, for instance, the new Chief of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde’s call on legislators to “act now” in order to prevent further economic downturn.

No actual plans of action are ever presented, the only thing it seems these individuals are good far is making demands. Unfortunately, demands will not put us back on the road to recovery, nor do they do anything other than create an atmosphere of fear.

The demands coming from Lagarde and others are confusing to say the least. They want governments to rein in the budget problems and fix their economies, but they do not want them to make too many spending cuts.

Without outlining specific, viable solutions, these statements are all but totally useless. Our economy in the United States, and in turn the entire world’s economy, needs a concrete direction, and one that is not based on austerity measures.

If we continue to just complain and demand others make the changes necessary to return the economy to a positive trajectory, we will continue to stagnate indefinitely.

Banks Race to Add Cash As Irene Approaches – Afterthought

Published on: 08/29/2011
Comments: 1 Comment

Editor’s Note: The storm is largely gone from the lower 48 now, which should allow us to post this without being accused of generating hysteria. I saw countless stories of people racing to get generators, cash, food, and other supplies in advance of this storm. Isn’t this something we should already be doing anyway? The event could be a major blizzard, a hurricane, a quake, or something man-made; it is much better to be able to calmly assess these situations from a standpoint of already being prepared rather than race around and participate in the hysteria – manufactured or real.

(Reuters) – Cash is king in a hurricane, but getting it is another question entirely.

Banks across New York City are making provisions so people will be able to get hard currency Sunday and Monday, even if Hurricane Irene knocks power out and floods branches.

One of the enduring lessons from the hurricanes of 2005 is that cash is crucial in a storm zone for basic staples, yet often difficult to come by. After Katrina, for example, ATMs across New Orleans simply did not work.

With that in mind, people scrambled to ATMs on Friday and Saturday morning across New York and New Jersey, often withdrawing hundreds of dollars to prepare.

JPMorgan Chase & Co kept its Chase branches open late Friday night and opened some early on Saturday, though like most every other business in the city they closed early ahead of the 12 p.m. EDT shutdown of regional mass transit.

The bank has extra “cash packs” ready to supply branches Monday morning and may deploy mobile ATMs, which are wireless and run on battery power, in hard-hit areas like the Financial District of lower Manhattan.

Bank of America Corp said Saturday it may do much the same thing, but on a larger scale.

The bank has commercial trucks with generators and built-in ATMs, both smaller cash-only units and full feature machines that allow deposits. It also has mobile branches — effectively trailer homes — with teller windows and offices.

Across the board, other major New York banks also said they took extra precautions.

“Capital One Bank topped off all of our ATMs prior to the closure of our branches in the Northeast. In addition, we have made appropriate preparations to reload cash if ATMs begin to run low of cash,” Capital One spokesman Steve Schooff said in a statement.

A spokeswoman for Toronto Dominion’s TD Bank unit said it had been monitoring cash flows and refilling ATMs as necessary.

Bloomberg (After Prompting) Comes Clean on Margin Hikes

Editor’s Note: After allowing the alternative media to break the story about margin hikes in Shanghai and another round of increases by CME, Bloomberg finally mentions this fact as a driver in the ongoing correction in gold. One can only wonder if the info would have seen the light of day had we and several others not broken this information.

Gold fell, heading for the biggest three-day drop in almost three years, as demand for riskier assets eroded the appeal of the precious metal as a haven.

Gold futures rose as much as 18 percent this month, touching an all-time high of $1,917.90 an ounce on Aug. 23 before erasing most of the gains. The value of a 100-ounce futures contract in New York plunged $10,400 yesterday, more than the $7,425 margin requirement that day, prompting exchange owner CME Group Inc. to increase the minimum cash deposit on trades. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index headed for a weekly gain after a 16 percent decline in the previous four weeks.

“It looks nasty, but this is a normal correction given the magnitude of the move,” Matt Zeman, a strategist at Kingsview Financial in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The parabolic move finally collapsed. You’ve got a return to risk appetite, and that’s taken the wind out of gold’s sails.”

Gold futures for December delivery fell $20.40, or 1.2 percent, to $1,736.90 at 10:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York. A close at that price would leave the most-active contract down 8.2 percent in the past three sessions, the biggest slump since October 2008. In London, gold for immediate deliver was down $23, or 1.3 percent, at $1,736.32.

The metal is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. Central banks are adding to reserves for the first time in a generation, joining billionaire investors including John Paulson in hoarding bullion. The Federal Reserve has taken the unprecedented step of saying it will keep borrowing costs at almost zero percent at least through mid-2013 to support the economy.

‘Not Safe’

“Gold is a trade, gold is a position, gold is volatile, but gold is not safe,” Dennis Gartman, an economist, wrote today in his Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter. “The public is involved in gold, and the cab drivers of the world have bought into it. Now they are being taken out, at high cost.”

The Chicago-based CME raised margin requirements after gold futures surged to a record this month and then plunged the most since March 2008. The minimum cash deposit required to trade Comex futures will rise 27 percent to $9,450 per contract in the speculative Tier 1 category at the close of trading today, CME said late yesterday. The maintenance margin will rise to $7,000 from $5,500. The Shanghai Gold Exchange said Aug. 23 it will hike margins from settlement today.

“In our opinion, the margin is not nearly high enough yet,” Gartman said. “Proper margining would seem to be closer to $15,000 per contract.” Given the volatility in trading, “the exchange needs to protect itself and its clients” from the possibility of a large speculator or two putting “the exchange into jeopardy,” he said.

Speculator Holdings

Speculators held a net 218,403 futures and options contracts by Aug. 16, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Positions reached 253,653 contracts by Aug. 2, the most since at least 2006, the data show. The CFTC will update its tally tomorrow.

The 10-day historical volatility for gold futures jumped to 41 percent, the highest level since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Following CME’s margin increases, silver slumped as much as 35 percent in about three weeks from April 25, when the metal touched a 31-year high of $49.845 an ounce on the Comex.

Gold’s surge and decline is similar to silver’s earlier this year, John Roque, WJB Capital Group’s senior technical analyst, said in a note to clients.

“Gold has some support at $1,700, but it wouldn’t surprise us to see the metal retest its last breakout level at $1,580,” Roque said.

Gold is still trading above its 200-, 100- and 50-day moving averages. The price is below the 20-day moving average of $1,743.50.

Silver futures for December delivery rose $1.004, or 2.6 percent, to $40.205 on the Comex.

Pure Media Bias on Gold – Andy Sutton

Bloomberg News has been cheered in recent months for several ‘movements’ in quasi-honest reporting, most notably a recent article on the $1.2 Trillion (at a bare minimum) that went to the global aristocracy from the US fed at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. The very fact that this slice of men without a country profited so insanely from the crisis should give most people a pretty good idea of how contrived the crisis was to begin with.

Bloomberg was also credited with filing various FOIA requests in an effort to force the US fed to disclose recipients of various emergency loans. These minor victories for the truth may have gone a long way towards giving this news outlet a clean bill of health in people’s minds and an A+ on the objectivity stress test. Nothing could be further from the truth.

On a day when gold has dropped over $100 or almost 5.5%, investors went looking for the reasons why the correction has been so severe. Certainly the market was due for a correction; it had come a long way in a very short time for some very good fundamental reasons. However, even the strongest bull market is not without pullbacks and this one was due. That is not, however, what caused the panic selling that has taken place. The overreaction was caused by another series of margin hikes, this time in the Chinese gold markets. Margins were raised to 12% starting this Friday. Rewind a few months and remember what CME did to silver with a series of margin hikes. The obvious fear is that margin hike fever will again spread back to US markets and CME will get back into the act – which they did – effective at close of business on 8/25/11.

However, what investors found on Bloomberg was an assortment of invectives against gold, how ‘stability’ in the global financial system – aka we haven’t had a crisis yet this week – and a strong US manufacturing report all contributed to the rout. Let’s take a look at some quotes from today’s ‘wall of shame’ article, which can be found by clicking the link. Bloomberg has a habit of updating and revising articles and as such I have saved the original version in PDF format for later reference if necessary.

“This is liquidation from a crowded trade,” (name redacted), a senior market strategist at MF Global Holdings Ltd. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “In the short run, there’s more optimism and that doesn’t bode well for gold. Investors have been using gold more as a fear barometer than a proxy for inflation.”

Obviously senior market strategists aren’t required to know even the most basic workings of the market that they claim to have expert knowledge of. Certainly the latter half of this statement has some truth to it, but why no mention of the margin hikes? If this guy did mention it and it wasn’t printed, he’s got a good reason to be hopping mad about it, because the omission makes him look incredibly incompetent.

“This is just pure panic selling” (name redacted), the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Before today, gold’s 14-day relative strength had been above 70 since Aug. 8, a signal to technical traders that prices are poised to fall.

Again, there is a nugget of truth here; there has been near panic selling, but again, no mention of the margin hikes. The comments allude to the fact that the decline is based on technical factors alone.

“Gold got pushed up on the idea that Bernanke will announce further quantitative easing,” (name redacted), a commodity market specialist at Scotia Capital, said in a telephone interview. “Now people are not so sure whether that will happen and that is creating disappointment in the gold market.”

Funny, Big Ben slammed the door several times on the idea of further overt QE, albeit leaving it open on other occasions, yet gold has rallied anyway despite the general inconsistency of his comments and an unclear picture of how much more the central bank is willing to bury the dollar in the short term. The Jackson Hole meeting this week might provide some clarity in that regard, but odds are probably even that we’ll know about as much then about monetization plans moving forward as we know now.

To Bloomberg’s minor credit, there was one ‘contrarian’ viewpoint printed at the very end of the article, but long after the central point of the piece had been well established:

The decline may be a buying opportunity to some investors, said
(name redacted), who manages $200 million at TEAM Financial Management in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. 
“A lot of traders and investors who are long-term bullish on gold sold out hoping for a correction because of how much it went up,” said (name redacted). “The drivers remain intact. The toughest thing to do is stay invested during the various parabolas and sit through the corrections.”

Again, through the entire piece, there was not a single mention of the Shanghai Gold Market’s margin hikes, which will take effect this Friday. I guess it is possible that Bloomberg journalists might not know about this supposed subtlety in the gold market, but they talked to a minimum of 4 market ‘experts’ and I simply refuse to believe that none of these folks knew about this. It would appear that this is nothing more than another thinly veiled attempt to shuck and jive the public into thinking that gold is not a viable alternative to eroding paper currencies and a safe haven from foolish monetary and fiscal policies that span the globe.

Getting away from the media bias for a second, there are some obvious reasons why the paper establishment would like to knock down gold prices. First, the establishment has been playing a losing game for a decade now, putting up battles at critical junctures until market pressures forced prices higher. This has been going on for more than ten years now. The argument regarding speculators is really getting tired and worn out. It is very likely that another round of public easing is about to take place (the covert easing never stopped by the way) and the central banks of the world would certainly prefer that gold launch from $1,750 as opposed to $1,950, for example. And finally, central banks, hedge funds, and all those people who bash gold love the actual metal and bought more of it in the first half of this year than they bought during all of 2010. They’d like more and if they can use paper charades to knock down the price of physical so they can accumulate, then that is exactly what they will do. The Chinese would certainly like more ounces for their flagging dollar reserves that they desperately want no part of.

So we have folks with means, motive, and opportunity. You might think the news is all bad. It isn’t. I talk to many people who complain that gold has gotten too expensive, which has hampered their ability to accumulate. Guess what? It just went on sale. What we don’t know is what the final discount will be or how long the sale will last. You again have an opportunity to trade in the ultimate wasting asset – the US dollar – for real money and get more ounces for your paper. Not a single fundamental has changed. So there hasn’t been a crisis in Europe this week. So what? Nothing has been fixed there – or here. So, Bloomberg and its shenanigans notwithstanding, today’s action is positive for buyers of physical precious metals and adds another chapter what I dubbed back in 2008 as the opportunity of a lifetime.

Consumer Confidence Hits Multi-Decade Low

(Reuters) – Consumer confidence has fallen further after weeks of intensified economic concerns and broad stock market declines, and Conference Board data due later this month could be even weaker than current projections suggest, Consumer Edge Research said on Monday.

Readings from high, middle and low-income consumers all deteriorated sharply, due mainly to dramatic declines in outlook, the independent equity research firm said.

The firm’s Consumer Economic Index is now at 45.4, down 10 percentage points from July and down 1.5 points from the 46.9 level it reported on August 10. Two days after that report, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary August reading showed that U.S. consumer sentiment had fallen to its lowest point since May 1980.

The 45.4 reading is the lowest since Consumer Edge Research began its index in March 2010.

Consumer Edge Research forecast that the Conference Board’s full-month Consumer Confidence Index would deteriorate 8 to 10 percentage points from an unadjusted 59.5 in July when its report is issued on August 30.

As of Friday, consensus was calling for a 2.5 percentage point decline, “so we believe there is downside risk to current expectations,” Consumer Edge Research said.

While low-income and middle-income consumers felt the most impact from July to August, high-income earners have deteriorated the most since the peak seen in February, Consumer Edge Research said.

Compared with July, the confidence level for low-income consumers, those with incomes under $40,000, declined 10 percentage points; middle-income consumers with incomes from $40,000 to $100,000 had an 11 percentage-point drop; and high-income consumers, those making more than $100,000, had a 7 percentage points drop.

Business owners are also feeling more stressed. The roughly 5 percent of consumers who own businesses with at least one employee had an index of 63, the lowest point since the firm began calculating the index for that particular group in February.

Consumer Edge noted that it has less conviction in its Conference Board forecast and now feels its own index more accurately reflects “true underlying consumer sentiment.”

In February, economists noted that a change in Conference Board’s survey data provider prompted revisions back to November 2010. Since that change, the link between that index and Consumer Edge Research’s index has deteriorated, the firm noted.

Consumer Edge Research surveys at least 2,500 U.S. consumers online, generally during the first 18 to 23 days of the month.

Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion From Fed

 

 

 

 

 

 

Editor’s Note: We tried to tell people about this three years ago. Nobody wanted to believe that the housing ‘crisis’ and resulting credit mess was nothing more than a thinly veiled bank robbery. However, contrary to popular opinion, it wasn’t the federal reserve bank that got robbed; it was the American people. it continues to amaze us how people couldn’t care less. This lack of concern only guarantees that they’ll be back for another round.

Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.

By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. The largest borrower, Morgan Stanley (MS), got as much as $107.3 billion, while Citigroup took $99.5 billion and Bank of America $91.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress.

“These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.”

Foreign Borrowers

It wasn’t just American finance. Almost half of the Fed’s top 30 borrowers, measured by peak balances, were European firms. They included Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, which took $84.5 billion, the most of any non-U.S. lender, and Zurich-based UBS AG (UBSN), which got $77.2 billion. Germany’s Hypo Real Estate Holding AG borrowed $28.7 billion, an average of $21 million for each of its 1,366 employees.

The largest borrowers also included Dexia SA (DEXB), Belgium’s biggest bank by assets, and Societe Generale SA, based in Paris, whose bond-insurance prices have surged in the past month as investors speculated that the spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe might increase their chances of default.

The $1.2 trillion peak on Dec. 5, 2008 — the combined outstanding balance under the seven programs tallied by Bloomberg — was almost three times the size of the U.S. federal budget deficit that year and more than the total earnings of all federally insured banks in the U.S. for the decade through 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Peak Balance

The balance was more than 25 times the Fed’s pre-crisis lending peak of $46 billion on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon. Denominated in $1 bills, the $1.2 trillion would fill 539 Olympic-size swimming pools.

The Fed has said it had “no credit losses” on any of the emergency programs, and a report by Federal Reserve Bank of New York staffers in February said the central bank netted $13 billion in interest and fee income from the programs from August 2007 through December 2009.

“We designed our broad-based emergency programs to both effectively stem the crisis and minimize the financial risks to the U.S. taxpayer,” said James Clouse, deputy director of the Fed’s division of monetary affairs in Washington. “Nearly all of our emergency-lending programs have been closed. We have incurred no losses and expect no losses.”

While the 18-month U.S. recession that ended in June 2009 after a 5.1 percent contraction in gross domestic product was nowhere near the four-year, 27 percent decline between August 1929 and March 1933, banks and the economy remain stressed.

Odds of Recession

The odds of another recession have climbed during the past six months, according to five of nine economists on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, an academic panel that dates recessions.

Bank of America’s bond-insurance prices last week surged to a rate of $342,040 a year for coverage on $10 million of debt, above whereLehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ)’s bond insurance was priced at the start of the week before the firm collapsed. Citigroup’s shares are trading below the split-adjusted price of $28 that they hit on the day the bank’s Fed loans peaked in January 2009. The U.S. unemployment rate was at 9.1 percent in July, compared with 4.7 percent in November 2007, before the recession began.

Homeowners are more than 30 days past due on their mortgage payments on 4.38 million properties in the U.S., and 2.16 million more properties are in foreclosure, representing a combined $1.27 trillion of unpaid principal, estimates Jacksonville, Florida-based Lender Processing Services Inc.

Liquidity Requirements

“Why in hell does the Federal Reserve seem to be able to find the way to help these entities that are gigantic?” U.S. Representative Walter B. Jones, a Republican from North Carolina, said at a June 1 congressional hearing in Washington on Fed lending disclosure. “They get help when the average businessperson down in eastern North Carolina, and probably across America, they can’t even go to a bank they’ve been banking with for 15 or 20 years and get a loan.”

The sheer size of the Fed loans bolsters the case for minimum liquidity requirements that global regulators last year agreed to impose on banks for the first time, said Litan, now a vice president at the Kansas City, Missouri-based Kauffman Foundation, which supports entrepreneurship research. Liquidity refers to the daily funds a bank needs to operate, including cash to cover depositor withdrawals.

The rules, which mandate that banks keep enough cash and easily liquidated assets on hand to survive a 30-day crisis, don’t take effect until 2015. Another proposed requirement for lenders to keep “stable funding” for a one-year horizon was postponed until at least 2018 after banks showed they’d have to raise as much as $6 trillion in new long-term debt to comply.

‘Stark Illustration’

Regulators are “not going to go far enough to prevent this from happening again,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at theInternational Monetary Fund and now an economics professor at Harvard University.

Reforms undertaken since the crisis might not insulate U.S. markets and financial institutions from the sovereign budget and debt crises facing Greece, Ireland and Portugal, according to the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council, a 10-member body created by the Dodd-Frank Act and led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

“The recent financial crisis provides a stark illustration of how quickly confidence can erode and financial contagion can spread,” the council said in its July 26 report.

Any new rescues by the U.S. central bank would be governed by transparency laws adopted in 2010 that require the Fed to disclose borrowers after two years.

21,000 Transactions

Fed officials argued for more than two years that releasing the identities of borrowers and the terms of their loans would stigmatize banks, damaging stock prices or leading to depositor runs. A group of the biggest commercial banks last year asked the U.S. Supreme Court to keep at least some Fed borrowings secret. In March, the high court declined to hear that appeal, and the central bank made an unprecedented release of records.

Data gleaned from 29,346 pages of documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and from other Fed databases of more than 21,000 transactions make clear for the first time how deeply the world’s largest banks depended on the U.S. central bank to stave off cash shortfalls. Even as the firms asserted in news releases or earnings calls that they had ample cash, they drew Fed funding in secret, avoiding the stigma of weakness.

Morgan Stanley Borrowing

Two weeks after Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008, Morgan Stanley countered concerns that it might be next to go by announcing it had “strong capital and liquidity positions.” The statement, in a Sept. 29, 2008, press release about a $9 billion investment from Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., said nothing about Morgan Stanley’s Fed loans.

That was the same day as the firm’s $107.3 billion peak in borrowing from the central bank, which was the source of almost all of Morgan Stanley’s available cash, according to the lending data and documents released more than two years later by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The amount was almost three times the company’s total profits over the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Mark Lake, a spokesman for New York-based Morgan Stanley, said the crisis caused the industry to “fundamentally re- evaluate” the way it manages its cash.

“We have taken the lessons we learned from that period and applied them to our liquidity-management program to protect both our franchise and our clients going forward,” Lake said. He declined to say what changes the bank had made.

Acceptable Collateral

In most cases, the Fed demanded collateral for its loans — Treasuries or corporate bonds and mortgage bonds that could be seized and sold if the money wasn’t repaid. That meant the central bank’s main risk was that collateral pledged by banks that collapsed would be worth less than the amount borrowed.

As the crisis deepened, the Fed relaxed its standards for acceptable collateral. Typically, the central bank accepts only bonds with the highest credit grades, such as U.S. Treasuries. By late 2008, it was accepting “junk” bonds, those rated below investment grade. It even took stocks, which are first to get wiped out in a liquidation.

Morgan Stanley borrowed $61.3 billion from one Fed program in September 2008, pledging a total of $66.5 billion of collateral, according to Fed documents. Securities pledged included $21.5 billion of stocks, $6.68 billion of bonds with a junk credit rating and $19.5 billion of assets with an “unknown rating,” according to the documents. About 25 percent of the collateral was foreign-denominated.

‘Willingness to Lend’

“What you’re looking at is a willingness to lend against just about anything,” said Robert Eisenbeis, a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and now chief monetary economist in Atlanta for Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors Inc.

The lack of private-market alternatives for lending shows how skeptical trading partners and depositors were about the value of the banks’ capital and collateral, Eisenbeis said.

“The markets were just plain shut,” said Tanya Azarchs, former head of bank research at Standard & Poor’s and now an independent consultant in Briarcliff Manor, New York. “If you needed liquidity, there was only one place to go.”

Even banks that survived the crisis without government capital injections tapped the Fed through programs that promised confidentiality. London-based Barclays Plc (BARC) borrowed $64.9 billion and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) got $66 billion. Sarah MacDonald, a spokeswoman for Barclays, and John Gallagher, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment.

Below-Market Rates

While the Fed’s last-resort lending programs generally charge above-market interest rates to deter routine borrowing, that practice sometimes flipped during the crisis. On Oct. 20, 2008, for example, the central bank agreed to make $113.3 billion of 28-day loans through its Term Auction Facility at a rate of 1.1 percent, according to a press release at the time.

The rate was less than a third of the 3.8 percent that banks were charging each other to make one-month loans on that day. Bank of America and Wachovia Corp. each got $15 billion of the 1.1 percent TAF loans, followed by Royal Bank of Scotland’s RBS Citizens NA unit with $10 billion, Fed data show.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the New York-based lender that touted its “fortress balance sheet” at least 16 times in press releases and conference calls from October 2007 through February 2010, took as much as $48 billion in February 2009 from TAF. The facility, set up in December 2007, was a temporary alternative to the discount window, the central bank’s 97-year-old primary lending program to help banks in a cash squeeze.

‘Larger Than TARP’

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), which in 2007 was the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, borrowed $69 billion from the Fed on Dec. 31, 2008. Among the programs New York-based Goldman Sachs tapped after the Lehman bankruptcy was the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, or PDCF, designed to lend money to brokerage firms ineligible for the Fed’s bank-lending programs.

Michael Duvally, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs, declined to comment.

The Fed’s liquidity lifelines may increase the chances that banks engage in excessive risk-taking with borrowed money, Rogoff said. Such a phenomenon, known as moral hazard, occurs if banks assume the Fed will be there when they need it, he said. The size of bank borrowings “certainly shows the Fed bailout was in many ways much larger than TARP,” Rogoff said.

TARP is the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, a $700 billion bank-bailout fund that provided capital injections of $45 billion each to Citigroup and Bank of America, and $10 billion to Morgan Stanley. Because most of the Treasury’s investments were made in the form of preferred stock, they were considered riskier than the Fed’s loans, a type of senior debt.

Dodd-Frank Requirement

In December, in response to the Dodd-Frank Act, the Fed released 18 databases detailing its temporary emergency-lending programs.

Congress required the disclosure after the Fed rejected requests in 2008 from the late Bloomberg News reporter Mark Pittman and other media companies that sought details of its loans under the Freedom of Information Act. After fighting to keep the data secret, the central bank released unprecedented information about its discount window and other programs under court order in March 2011.

Bloomberg News combined Fed databases made available in December and July with the discount-window records released in March to produce daily totals for banks across all the programs, including the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, Commercial Paper Funding Facility, discount window, PDCF, TAF, Term Securities Lending Facility and single-tranche open market operations. The programs supplied loans from August 2007 through April 2010.

Rolling Crisis

The result is a timeline illustrating how the credit crisis rolled from one bank to another as financial contagion spread.

Fed borrowings by Societe Generale (GLE), France’s second-biggest bank, peaked at $17.4 billion in May 2008, four months after the Paris-based lender announced a record 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) loss on unauthorized stock-index futures bets by former trader Jerome Kerviel.

Morgan Stanley’s top borrowing came four months later, after Lehman’s bankruptcy. Citigroup crested in January 2009, as did 43 other banks, the largest number of peak borrowings for any month during the crisis. Bank of America’s heaviest borrowings came two months after that.

Sixteen banks, including Plano, Texas-based Beal Financial Corp. and Jacksonville, Florida-based EverBank Financial Corp., didn’t hit their peaks until February or March 2010.

“At no point was there a material risk to the Fed or the taxpayer, as the loan required collateralization,” said Reshma Fernandes, a spokeswoman for EverBank, which borrowed as much as $250 million.

Using Subsidiaries

Banks maximized their borrowings by using subsidiaries to tap Fed programs at the same time. In March 2009, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America drew $78 billion from one facility through two banking units and $11.8 billion more from two other programs through its broker-dealer, Bank of America Securities LLC.

Banks also shifted balances among Fed programs. Many preferred the TAF because it carried less of the stigma associated with the discount window, often seen as the last resort for lenders in distress, according to a January 2011 paper by researchers at the New York Fed.

After the Lehman bankruptcy, hedge funds began pulling their cash out of Morgan Stanley, fearing it might be the next to collapse, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission said in a January report, citing interviews with former Chief Executive Officer John Mack and then-Treasurer David Wong.

Borrowings Surge

Morgan Stanley’s borrowings from the PDCF surged to $61.3 billion on Sept. 29 from zero on Sept. 14. At the same time, its loans from the Term Securities Lending Facility, or TSLF, rose to $36 billion from $3.5 billion. Morgan Stanley treasury reports released by the FCIC show the firm had $99.8 billion of liquidity on Sept. 29, a figure that included Fed borrowings.

“The cash flow was all drying up,” said Roger Lister, a former Fed economist who’s now head of financial-institutions coverage at credit-rating firm DBRS Inc. in New York. “Did they have enough resources to cope with it? The answer would be yes, but they needed the Fed.”

While Morgan Stanley’s Fed demands were the most acute, Citigroup was the most chronic borrower among the largest U.S. banks. The New York-based company borrowed $10 million from the TAF on the program’s first day in December 2007 and had more than $25 billion outstanding under all programs by May 2008, according to Bloomberg data. By Nov. 21, when Citigroup began talks with the government to get a $20 billion capital injection on top of the $25 billion received a month earlier, its Fed borrowings had doubled to about $50 billion.

Tapping Six Programs

Over the next two months the amount almost doubled again. On Jan. 20, as the stock sank below $3 for the first time in 16 years amid investor concerns that the lender’s capital cushion might be inadequate, Citigroup was tapping six Fed programs at once. Its total borrowings amounted to more than twice the federal Department of Education’s 2011 budget.

Citigroup was in debt to the Fed on seven out of every 10 days from August 2007 through April 2010, the most frequent U.S. borrower among the 100 biggest publicly traded firms by pre- crisis market valuation. On average, the bank had a daily balance at the Fed of almost $20 billion.

“Citibank basically was sustained by the Fed for a very long time,” said Richard Herring, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia who has studied financial crises.

Jon Diat, a Citigroup spokesman, said the bank made use of programs that “achieved the goal of instilling confidence in the markets.”

‘Help Motivate Others’

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a letter to shareholders last year that his bank avoided many government programs. It did use TAF, Dimon said in the letter, “but this was done at the request of the Federal Reserve to help motivate others to use the system.”

The bank, the second-largest in the U.S. by assets, first tapped the TAF in May 2008, six months after the program debuted, and then zeroed out its borrowings in September 2008. The next month, it started using TAF again.

On Feb. 26, 2009, more than a year after TAF’s creation, JPMorgan’s borrowings under the program climbed to $48 billion. On that day, the overall TAF balance for all banks hit its peak, $493.2 billion. Two weeks later, the figure began declining.

“Our prior comment is accurate,” said Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for JPMorgan.

‘The Cheapest Source’

Herring, the University of Pennsylvania professor, said some banks may have used the program to maximize profits by borrowing “from the cheapest source, because this was supposed to be secret and never revealed.”

Whether banks needed the Fed’s money for survival or used it because it offered advantageous rates, the central bank’s lender-of-last-resort role amounts to a free insurance policy for banks guaranteeing the arrival of funds in a disaster, Herring said.

An IMF report last October said regulators should consider charging banks for the right to access central bank funds.

“The extent of official intervention is clear evidence that systemic liquidity risks were under-recognized and mispriced by both the private and public sectors,” the IMF said in a separate report in April.

Access to Fed backup support “leads you to subject yourself to greater risks,” Herring said. “If it’s not there, you’re not going to take the risks that would put you in trouble and require you to have access to that kind of funding.”

Moody’s Cuts US Economic Outlook

Published on: 08/16/2011
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

Editor’s Note: They still don’t get it. Three years ago these people cheered on the accumulation of trillions in additional debt to ‘stimulate’ the economy.Now, when is very obvious that failed, they cut the outlook BECAUSE of the debt they themselves encouraged. You can’t make this stuff up.

Moody’s Analytics said its near-term outlook for the U.S. economy has fallen significantly in the past month wake of the debate over the U.S. debt ceiling and the downgrade of the nation’s credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s .

Moody’s Analytics, a sister company to credit-ratings company Moody’s Investors Service, now expects real gross domestic product to increase at an annualized rate of about 2% in the second half of this year and just over 3% next year, compared with its estimate a month ago for growth of 3.5% for the second half of this year and through 2012.

The firm attributes most of the expected decline to a loss of business, investor and consumer confidence, noting the economy’s improving fundamentals such as the strengthening of business’s balance sheets and consumers’ strides in cutting household debt.

The credit-rating company also said it thinks the odds of a renewed recession over the next 12 months — now at 1 in 3 — will increase if stock prices continue to fall. Moody’s maintains that the odds of a renewed recession rise with each 100-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While Moody’s expects the economic recovery will continue, prospects for economic growth and job creation have “diminished substantially.”

Though the U.S. economic recovery looked healthy at the beginning of the year, a series of events have hurt business, consumer and investor confidence, Moody’s said. These include surging prices for food and gasoline, natural disasters in Japan, Europe’s debt crisis and, most recently, the U.S. debt woes.

The economy needs to grow 2.5% to 3% a year to create jobs fast enough to keep the unemployment rate stable, Moody’s said. However, Moody’s said it doesn’t think this will happen soon.

August Centsible Investor Available

The July-August period was very profitable for the model portfolio. Three of the four segments saw substantial gains, and the total gain for the portfolio jumped over 3.5% in the past 30 days. Much of this was due increases in precious metals prices as well as tactical hedging that we put in place on 7/27/11. That hedge nearly doubled in value as markets caved after the debt deal and credit downgrade.

This month’s keynote focuses on resetting our thinking after the latest blowout. Some very important big picture changes took place in the past month and we outline those and what the effects are likely to be moving forward. Despite the past 3 days of victories in the equity markets, make no mistake this is nowhere near over.

In energy, we dovetail the recent move to effectively double the fuel standard with the constant insistence by energy market ‘insiders’ and government types that we’re literally drowning in oil. Something isn’t right here and we tear these arguments apart.

In metals, we look at gold’s proxy performance for the stability of the financial system now vs. 2008 and we demonstrate why what just happened in the markets was nothing like 2008 despite the media’s persistent rhetoric to the contrary. We also discuss the economic ‘kill-switch’ built into the debt deal and the economic equivalent of a commercial signal failure. If you want to know the intricacies of how everything is bolted together, this is information you don’t want to miss.

In the market update, we show our long-term analysis from May 2009. It was right on target and has developed precisely as outlined over two years ago. This has big implications for anyone holding paper assets and needs to be part of everyone’s decision-making process.

This is probably the most important issue of CI that we’ve ever released. If you’re a subscriber or client, take some time and seriously digest its contents. If you’re on the fence, consider becoming a subscriber. We realize times are tough and as such have lowered prices to reflect the troubles people are having financially. This is much more than just a stock-picking newsletter; much of our research pertains to the general economy and how those developments affect consumers at a variety of levels. If you find our work beneficial, please refer us to a friend or colleague; it is how we are able to continue providing this analysis.

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Markets in New ‘Danger Zone’: Zoellick

(Reuters) – The loss of market confidence in economic leadership in key countries like the United States and Europe coupled with a fragile economic recovery have pushed markets into a new danger zone, something that policymakers have to take seriously, the head of the World Bank said on Sunday.

Speaking at the Asia Society dinner in Sydney, Robert Zoellick also said the global economy was going through a multi-speed recovery, with developing countries now the source of growth and opportunity.

“What’s happened in the past couple of weeks is there is a convergence of some events in Europe and the United States that has led many market participants to lose confidence in economic leadership of some of the key countries,” he said.

“I think those events combined with some of the other fragilities in the nature of recovery have pushed us into a new danger zone. I don’t say those words lightly … so that policymakers recognize and take it seriously for what it is.”

Zoellick said the process of dealing with the sovereign debt problem and some of the competitive issues in the euro zone have tended to be done “a day late,” leaving markets worried that authorities may not be ahead of the problem or moving in the right direction.

“That (worry) has accumulated and so we’re moving from drama to trauma for a lot of the euro zone countries,” he said.

On the United States, Zoellick said it wasn’t fears the world’s biggest economy faced an imminent problem, but “frankly that markets are used to the United States playing a key role in the economic system and leadership.”

He said efforts to cut U.S. government spending have so far been focused on discretionary spending as opposed to the entitlement program such as social security. “Until they make an effort on those programs, there is going to be continued skepticism about dealing with long-term spending.”

Zoellick said while market confidence has been hit, the real issue was whether this will spread to business and consumer confidence, something that was still unclear.

“What is different from the world of the past is now emerging markets are sources of growth and opportunity. About half of global growth is represented by the developing world … so this is a very rapid change in a relatively short span of time in historical terms,” he added.

On China, Zoellick said the appreciation of the yuan would be constructive, especially in helping tackle the country’s inflationary pressure.

On Australia, he said the country was in a much better position than other developed countries because it undertook structural reforms. On the fiscal side, he noted Australia’s debt was only 7 percent of gross domestic product and taking advantage of its position in the Asia Pacific..

S&P Downgrades USGovt Credit Rating

Published on: 08/05/2011
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

Standard & Poor’s announced Friday night that it has downgraded the United States credit rating for the first time, dealing a huge symbolic blow to the world’s economic superpower in what was a sharply worded critique of the American political system.

Lowering the nation’s rating one-notch below AAA, the credit rating company said “political brinkmanship” in the debate over the debt had made the U.S. government’s ability to manage its finances “less stable, less effective and less predictable.” It said the bi-partisan agreement reached this week to find $2.1 trillion in budget savings “fell short” of what was necessary to tame the nation’s debt over time and predicted that leaders would have no luck achieving more savings later on.

The decision came after a day of furious back-and-forth between the Obama administration and S&P. Government officials fought back hard, arguing that S&P made a flawed analysis of the potential for political agreement and had mathematical errors in its initial analysis, which was submitted to the Treasury earlier in the day. The analysis overstated the U.S. deficit over 10 years by $2 trillion.

“A judgment flawed by a $2 trillion error speaks for itself,” a Treasury spokesperson said Friday.

The downgrade will push the global financial markets into unchartered territory after a volatile week fueled by concerns over the European debt crisis and the slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Analysts say that, over time, the downgrade is likely to push up borrowing costs for the U.S. government, costing taxpayers tens of billions of dollars a year. It could also drive up costs for borrowing for consumers and companies seeking mortgages, credit cards and business loans.

A downgrade could also have a cascading series of effects on states and localities, including nearly all of those in the Washington metro area. These governments could lose their AAA credit ratings as well, potentially raising the cost of borrowing for schools, roads and parks.

But the exact impact of the downgrade won’t be known until at least Sunday night, when Asian markets open, and perhaps not fully grasped for months. Analysts say the impact on the markets may be modest because they have been anticipating an S&P downgrade for weeks.

Federal officials are also examining the impact of a downgrade in large but esoteric financial markets where U.S. government bonds serve an extremely important function. They were generally confident that markets would hold up, but were closely monitoring the situation.

S&P’s action is the most tangible vote of disapproval so far by Wall Street on the deal between President Obama and Congress to cut the deficit by at least $2.1 trillion over 10 years. S&P has said that it wanted at least $4 trillion of deficit reduction.

The downgrade is likely to be used as a weapon by both Republicans and Democrats as they argue the other side has not taken deficit reduction seriously.

Other credit rating agencies — Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings — have decided not to downgrade the United States credit rating. But they’ve warned that, if the economy deteriorates significantly or the government does not take additional steps to tame the debt, they could move to downgrade too.

In April, S&P first said it might downgrade the United States credit rating on concerns that lawmakers would not be able to come to a deal on reducing the debt. In July, as efforts stagnated, S&P said the odds of a downgrade within three months had moved up to 50 percent.

The ultimate deal between Obama and Congress ultimately failed S&P’s benchmark. Obama administration officials have been critical of S&P for making what was essentially a political judgment and for failing to conclude that the country was making a strong first step to reducing its deficit.

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