Archives: June 2011

Greece Given over to Violence

Police have been firing teargas in an effort to disperse the crowd

Greek police have fired teargas at protesters outside parliament as MPs prepared to debate new austerity measures required for the EU and IMF bail-out package.

Demonstrators who broke off from a strike rally in Athens responded by throwing yoghurt and stones.

Prime Minister George Papandreou faces the risk of a revolt in his Pasok party over the austerity package.

He has proposed a unity government to pass the measures, state TV reports.

He is seeking support for a new austerity programme of 28bn euros (£24.6bn; $40.5bn) in cuts to take effect from 2012 to 2015.

Thousands are taking part in a general strike, the third in Greece this year.

Ports, public transport and banks have been badly disrupted as the main public- and private-sector unions go out on strike.

State-run companies have also joined the walkout, while hospitals are only offering emergency care. However, airports are operating normally after air traffic controllers called off their strike.

A top credit agency has cut Greece’s rating, making it the least credit-worthy nation out of 131 countries it monitors.

The Greek government said the downgrade by Standard & Poor’s – from B to CCC – ignored its efforts to secure funding.

In order for the next tranche of rescue loans to go through, parliament must adopt the new austerity plan by the end of June.

‘Fight the battle’

Police thwarted protesters who were attempting to blockade parliament and stop MPs getting in for the debate.

They sealed off the roads leading to Syntagma Square and created a pathway for deputies.

The Greek demonstrators are calling themselves the “indignants”, linking themselves to Spanish anti-austerity protesters who set up camps in Madrid and Barcelona.

The square is awash with Greek and Spanish flags, as well as banners reading “Resist” and the battle cry from the Spanish civil war, “No pasaran” (they shall not pass), the AFP news agency reports.

One MP defected from Mr Papandreou’s Pasok party on Tuesday, leaving it with only 155 of the chamber’s 300 seats.

“You have to be as cruel as a tiger to vote for these measures. I am not,” George Lianis, a former sports minister, said in a letter to parliament’s speaker announcing his departure from the parliamentary group.

At least one other Pasok MP has threatened to vote against the new programme of cuts and privatisation of state assets.

Another 14 MPs are wavering in their support for the austerity plan, our correspondent says.

Mr Papandreou held talks on Wednesday with Greek President Karolos Papoulias, telling him that “a national effort” was required.

“We are at a historically crucial moment and a time of crucial decisions,” Mr Papandreou said, according to a transcript released by his office.

“In any case, we will move forward with this sense of responsibility and the necessary decisions.”

Possible contagion

Meanwhile, eurozone finance ministers have failed to agree on how to make private creditors contribute to a possible second Greek bail-out.

Ministers meeting in Brussels continued their discussions late into the night on Tuesday on ways of making private bondholders share the cost of a second rescue package without throwing financial markets into turmoil.

As a result of their failure to reach a deal, the cost of insuring Greek debt against default shot to an all-time high.

In a sign of possible contagion from the Greek crisis, credit rating agency Moody’s said it might downgrade the three largest banks in France because of their exposure to Greek debt.

Share prices for BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale all fell as a result.

France appealed for calm, saying it opposed a Greek restructuring which could entail write-offs for private banks.

“The French position is voluntary – no restructuring, no credit event and in line with the ECB,” government spokesman Francois Baroin told reporters in Paris.

The EU and IMF are demanding the measures in return for the release of another 12bn euros in aid next month which Athens needs to pay off maturing debt.

Better Kill the Economy – and Fast

Published on: 06/14/2011
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Editor’s Note: This has been one of the major themes behind much of the work behind creating a jobless recovery, etc. And it has barely been touched by the mainstream press.

(Reuters) – Oil prices will rise and could harm the economy if an expected supply shortage materializes later this year, OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said on Tuesday.

Consumer countries urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump more to replace supplies shut down in Libya and to prevent fuel inflation hurting economic growth.

Instead last week’s OPEC talks collapsed without a deal, although Badri said the OPEC secretariat had presented all the evidence for a production rise.

Its 33 economists pointed to the need for 2 million barrels per day (bpd) more oil in the third quarter and 1.5 million bpd in the last three months of the year.

“This shortage of 2 million barrels, if it materializes, in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, then the price will go up for sure,” Badri told the Reuters Global Energy and Climate Summit.

While he agreed with the need for more oil, Badri took exception to insistent lobbying from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents 28 industrialized countries and has long engaged in cooperation talks with OPEC.

“We never interfere in the IEA and really we don’t want them to interfere in our business. They should do it in a professional manner. We should not talk to each other through the media,” he said.

SAUDI WILL PUMP REGARDLESS

With or without an OPEC deal, leading exporter Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the kingdom would pump as much oil as the market needed.

Since Saudi Arabia is the only country able to raise production significantly at short notice, the expected increase in its supply has raised concern in oil markets that the world’s cushion of unused oil capacity is deflating fast.

Comment: Saudi Arabia’s mysterious ability to pump oil without ever revising estimates is one of the cornerstones of hiding the reality of peak oi. Their ability to nearly instantaneously increase production to whatever level is needed to satisfy the markets is another. Oddly enough, they’ve never actually done the latter – even at persistent $100 plus oil in 2007-08.

Badri said spare capacity was still “4.5 million bpd or more,” leaving plenty for any emergencies. He did not foresee a repeat of the 2008 record bull run, when U.S. crude hit a record high just above $147 a barrel.

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday when Brent oil rose above $120 a barrel.

“I don’t think we will see $147. I think now we have spare capacity. I think if consumers will go to member countries and ask for more oil, I’m sure they will sell it to them.”

Badri would not be drawn on a price range OPEC considered appropriate, but said its aim was for moderate prices.

“We don’t want to see a very high price. We don’t want to see a very low price. We would like to see a moderate price,” he said. “We think high prices will affect world growth.”

Badri said OPEC would carry out its mandate of moderating prices and that its next scheduled meeting in December would reach agreement.

“I think the ministers will go back and discuss the outcome of the meeting and they will explain to their governments what happened,” Badri said. “I am sure they will educate themselves more and come up with a decision that will be approved by all the member countries.”

At last Wednesday’s OPEC meeting, a proposal by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar to lift OPEC production was blocked by seven countries including Iran, Venezuela and Algeria. Nigeria was neutral.

OPEC last changed its official output limit in December 2008, setting a target for 11 members except Iraq to produce no more than 24.84 million bpd. With actual production of the 11 about 1.4 million bpd higher than that, Badri said OPEC had effectively ditched its old targets.

“This target is really not valid any more due to the current production,” he said.

The OPEC official said the December meeting would have to tackle the thorny issue of realigning output targets among the 11 members subject to them, a task made harder while Libyan output is shut down.

Badri did not anticipate OPEC would call an emergency meeting before December, saying that would be up to the president and the members.

By December, some of the uncertainties should have disappeared.

“When we meet in December, our numbers will be proved valid or the price will come down. I don’t know,” Badri said.

IEA ‘SHOULD BE QUIET’

Whatever the case, he hoped there would be no more outside pressure from bodies such as the IEA, which issued a veiled threat to OPEC before last week’s meeting.

It had said it would use all the tools at its disposal, which include the use of oil held in emergency reserves, unless OPEC increased supply to calm the oil market.

“Strategic reserves should be kept for their purpose and not used as a weapon against OPEC,” Badri said.

As OPEC secretary general, he had regular conversations with the IEA and considered public intervention inappropriate.

“As long as they are talking to me, they don’t have to go to the public. They should really be quiet,” he said.

Aside from supply and demand, Badri cited speculation as a huge factor in the oil market and said neither the two world benchmarks Brent and U.S. crude reflected market realities.

Brent’s premium to U.S. crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was trading close to a record of well above $22 a barrel on Tuesday.

“I don’t feel comfortable. I don’t think they represent the market, WTI or Brent.”

He saw a need for a third benchmark, but said he could not say what it should be.

Bill Gross Confirms Our Work

Editor’s Note: Our research and analysis over the past several years has pointed to the fact that the USA is in much worse shape than Greece. We were ignored. Now Bill Gross agrees. Let’s see what happens to this notion now that it has a more popular champion

When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.

Bill Gross
Getty Images

Much of the public focus is on the nation’s public debt, which is $14.3 trillion. But that doesn’t include money guaranteed for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which comes to close to $50 trillion, according to government figures.

The government also is on the hook for other debts such as the programs related to the bailout of the financial system following the crisis of 2008 and 2009, government figures show.

Taken together, Gross puts the total at “nearly $100 trillion,” that while perhaps a bit on the high side, places the country in a highly unenviable fiscal position that he said won’t find a solution overnight.

“To think that we can reduce that within the space of a year or two is not a realistic assumption,” Gross said in a live interview. “That’s much more than Greece, that’s much more than almost any other developed country. We’ve got a problem and we have to get after it quickly.”

Gross spoke following a report that US banks were likely to scale back on their use of Treasurys as collateral against derivatives and other transactions. Bank heads say that move is likely to happen in August as Congress dithers over whether to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, according to a report in the Financial Times.

The move reflects increasing concern from the financial community over whether the US is capable of a political solution to its burgeoning debt and deficit problems.

 

“We’ve always wondered who will buy Treasurys” after the Federal Reserve purchases the last of its $600 billion to end the second leg of its quantitative easing program later this month, Gross said. “It’s certainly not Pimco and it’s probably not the bond funds of the world.”

Pimco, based in Newport Beach, Calif., manages more than $1.2 trillion in assets and runs the largest bond fund in the world.

Gross confirmed a report Friday that Pimco has marginally increased its Treasurys allotment—from 4 percent to 5 percent—but still has little interest in US debt and its low yields that are in place despite an ugly national balance sheet.

“Why wouldn’t an investor buy Canada with a better balance sheet or Australia with a better balance sheet with interest rates at 1 or 2 or 3 percent higher?” he said. “It simply doesn’t make any sense.”

Should the debt problem in Greece explode into a full-blown crisis—an International Monetary Fund bailout has prevented a full-scale meltdown so far—Gross predicted that German debt, not that of the US, would be the safe-haven of choice for global investors.

A New Mission

A sabbatical is usually a good thing as it gives a nice opportunity to take a step back, assess, reassess, and potentially relax. I’ve enjoyed the past few months away as I took time to do the above and also to try to impart a little common sense and perhaps some wisdom on the up and coming generation regarding economics, the study thereof, and more importantly, the dire consequences of failing to recognize and follow basic economic laws.  So I return, and in many ways, things are not much different than when I took leave back in February. There have been some recurring themes, and in a sad way, it is nice to have been right about so many things, particularly the fraudulent nature of the recovery that was pronounced by the govermedia back in early 2009. Believe me though, for all the people who have had their jobs outsourced, offshored, or eliminated, I’d have much rather been wrong. The same goes for those who are now struggling to support families on a fraction of their prior earnings. I would much rather have had to slink away in disgrace because of a voracious (and healthy) economic recovery than see the suffering endured by so many.

I remember vividly a conversation I had with author Jim Kunstler a few years ago about these matters and we hammered on the need for people to scale down. Sure, we were having that conversation through the lens of the reality of peak oil, but it really applied in the financial sense as well. Perhaps the reality that has struck me the most over the past few weeks is the impact that McDonalds is able to have on the labor market. Who would have ever thought that a fast-food joint would be responsible for half the jobs created in a single month? And that is if you have any reason at all to believe the BLS jobs numbers. I don’t. But that is another story that has been told many times before and we’ll not do it again.

Getting back to my conversation with Kunstler, we talked about the mental paradigm shift necessary to deal with peak oil. The days of the hour-long commute are limited. Driving more than 100 miles a day is going to be a thing of the past soon. Many are now telecommuting a couple of days a week in jobs where that is suitable and that helps. Gas prices were much lower when Jim and I talked than they are now, that is for sure. For the guy who drives 100 miles each day to work, his commuting bill has gone up dramatically while his wages have stagnated. He is pummeled again at the grocery store with increasing prices for quality and quantity of foods that are continuously decreasing. The media and government are doing Joe America a huge disservice by making it sound like these situations are transient in nature, rather than here for the long term. Again, the point of this commentary is not to flesh out the reasons behind what is going on; that’s already been done. The point is that people need to adjust and most simply won’t. It isn’t that they can’t; they just refuse.

Our entitlement society is heading for a brick wall. The major underpinnings of our gimme society are insolvent. Our debt is skyrocketing. Our bonds are junk. Our currency is a joke. Our ‘free’ press is in the pockets of the same people who have brought all of this economic despair to Main Street. Joe America nearly shut down this corrupt system in 2008-09 simply by curtailing his expansion of borrowing. Nobody wants to talk about that. The proof is irrefutable and the connections are clear. America stops borrowing and the fiat system is dead on arrival at the Fed’s triage center: the FOMC. We hear dire warnings about the government’s debt and the statutory debt limit. Threats are made, promises of doomsday echo from the same ratings agencies who saw fit to apply AAA ratings to junk mortgage bonds and will mercilessly downgrade the PIIGS for problems that are several orders of magnitude less than what we face.

Joe America is largely unfazed, however. Sure, there are pockets of hurt, and there are many, many people who have re-evaluated their personal situations and have embraced individual austerity. Yet in the aggregate, we’re back on the credit card. It is hard to discern at this point whether the uptick in borrowing is for essentials or discretionary goods. Based on the anecdotal evidence, it is likely both. People have been trained to borrow, make minimum payments, and to live as a servant to the creditor. When you think about it, the ‘money’ that has been used to create this servitude has been created from nothing, yet must be repaid with something very real – the sweat of one’s brow. Hardly seems like a fair deal to me, yet we not only accept it, we demand it. Have we really spent any time thinking about these matters? It is almost funny when I look at the latest opinion polls regarding the national debt. The vast majority of Americans think that Congress needs to put the country’s fiscal house in order, yet most of those same people refuse to do it in their own backyard.

Yes, America is in dire need of a mental paradigm shift towards a simpler life, with less emphasis on accumulation of toys and materialism and more of an emphasis on stewardship and restoring the economic environment that allowed this country to become what it was. That should be our mandate. However, I am a realist and I know deep down that most will not heed this or any other call for a change of thinking. Unfortunately, history is firmly on the side of this pessimistic disposition. I have decided in my time off to focus at the micro level instead of the macro level. My days of open letters to Congress and calls to economic action are over. My days of open letters to individuals have begun. These commentaries and my firm’s newsletter will be geared more towards helping individuals who recognize our changing world to adjust, cope, and prepare for what is inevitable rather than attempting to convince those who will continue to deny the obvious until the time for meaningful action has long passed.

These words are not meant to be harsh, but have come over months of reflection as I’ve had some time to ruminate over the human condition and its predilection to lemming-like behavior. The one silver lining in all this is that if people live more responsibly and in a simpler manner from a financial perspective, they will be taking many of the steps that will be necessary for the preparation of the effects of peak oil. Yes, peak oil is real. Even the big banks are now talking about ‘resource constraints’ in the energy space and figuring it into their forecasts. Oil companies are hammering like crazy in the Marcellus shales to bring natural gas to market that hasn’t sold for over $5.50 a thousand in what seems to be a dog’s life.

If you are one of those people who understand these matters, then this column and anything else I can do to help are here for you to utilize. From here forward this work will be dedicated to the awakened rather than to the process of awakening. If you’re not there yet, there are plenty of mainstream media outlets that will gladly satiate your desire for information.

This month’s Centsible Investor Keynote will focus on the debt ceiling, government debt in general, and most importantly, some steps you can take on an individual basis to assist you in mitigating the effects of continued runaway borrowing. In addition, we’ll provide our traditional analysis of energy, precious metals, and the major financial markets. For more information, click here.

US Ratings Agencies Put to Shame

Editor’s Note: One could call this ‘rogue’ ratings agency Captain Obvious for this one, but it about time someone with a little clout actually came out and called it like it is. Kudos to these guys and shame on our ‘big three’ for enabling this charade to continue for another generation.

A Chinese ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order.

“In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting,” Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd., the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.

Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies — eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Guan said.

Guan did not immediately respond to AFP requests for comment.

The US government will run out of room to spend more on August 2 unless Congress bumps up the borrowing limit beyond $14.29 trillion — but Republicans are refusing to support such a move until a deficit cutting deal is reached.

Ratings agency Fitch on Wednesday joined Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s to warn the United States could lose its first-class credit rating if it fails to raise its debt ceiling to avoid defaulting on loans.

A downgrade could sharply raise US borrowing costs, worsening the country’s already dire fiscal position, and send shock waves through the financial world, which has long considered US debt a benchmark among safe-haven investments.

China is by far the top holder of US debt and has in the past raised worries that the massive US stimulus effort launched to revive the economy would lead to mushrooming debt that erodes the value of the dollar and its Treasury holdings.

Beijing cut its holdings of US Treasury securities for the fifth month in a row to $1.145 trillion in March, down $9.2 billion from February and 2.6 percent less than October’s peak of $1.175 trillion, US data showed last month.

Foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei on Thursday urged the United States to adopt “effective measures to improve its fiscal situation”.

Dagong has made a name for itself by hitting out at its three Western rivals, saying they caused the financial crisis by failing to properly disclose risk.

The Chinese agency, which is trying to build an international profile, has given the United States and several other nations lower marks than they received from the the big three.

Total Government Debt at $61.9 Trillion?

Editor’s Note: Too bad these numbers are 5 years old. Either that or their methodology is incorrect. The real number is well north of $200 Trillion.

The federal government’s financial condition deteriorated rapidly last year, far beyond the $1.5 trillion in new debt taken on to finance the budget deficit, a USA TODAY analysis shows.

The government added $5.3 trillion in new financial obligations in 2010, largely for retirement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. That brings to a record $61.6 trillion the total of financial promises not paid for.

This gap between spending commitments and revenue last year equals more than one-third of the nation’s gross domestic product.

Medicare alone took on $1.8 trillion in new liabilities, more than the record deficit prompting heated debate between Congress and the White House over lifting the debt ceiling.

Social Security added $1.4 trillion in obligations, partly reflecting longer life expectancies. Federal and military retirement programs added more to the financial hole, too.

Corporations would be required to count these new liabilities when they are taken on — and report a big loss to shareholders. Unlike businesses, however, Congress postpones recording spending commitments until it writes a check.

The $61.6 trillion in unfunded obligations amounts to $534,000 per household. That’s more than five times what Americans have borrowed for everything else — mortgages, car loans and other debt. It reflects the challenge as the number of retirees soars over the next 20 years and seniors try to collect on those spending promises.

“The (federal) debt only tells us what the government owes to the public. It doesn’t take into account what’s owed to seniors, veterans and retired employees,” says accountant Sheila Weinberg, founder of the Institute for Truth in Accounting, a Chicago-based group that advocates better financial reporting. “Without accurate accounting, we can’t make good decisions.”

Michael Lind, policy director at the liberal New America Foundation‘s economic growth program, says there is no near-term crisis for federal retirement programs and that economic growth will make these programs more affordable.

“The false claim that Social Security and Medicare are about to bankrupt the United States has been repeated for decades by conservatives and libertarians who pretend that their ideological opposition to these successful and cost-effective programs is based on worries about the deficit,” he says.

USA TODAY has calculated federal finances based on standard accounting rules since 2004 using data from the Medicare and Social Security annual reports and the little-known audited financial report of the federal government.

The government has promised pension and health benefits worth more than $700,000 per retired civil servant. The pension fund’s key asset: federal IOUs.

‘Durability’ of Recovery Now Questioned by Optimists

Editor’s Note: Murphy was probably right on the glass being half empty; especially when it comes to this sham of a recovery. Don’t forget, the media will protect its credibility, and you know things are going to get worse when the mainstream press is out there talking about how the economy is failing (again). After all, if they lied all the time even the dimmest bulbs would start to light up. And Austin Goolsbee is a disgrace; he is a shill who will say whatever he is paid to say. The fact that anyone listens to even one word out of his discredited mouth means we’re in big trouble.

June 6 (Bloomberg) — A string of disappointing economic data capped by last week’s jobs report is prompting even some of the more optimistic economists to question the durability of the U.S. recovery.

While analysts such as Stephen Stanley of Pierpoint Securities LLC and Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase & Co. still see growth strengthening in the months ahead, they voiced concern that the lull in the economy may prove prolonged, leaving it more vulnerable to external shocks or policy missteps.

“We’ll do better in the second half,” said Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan in New York and a former member of the Federal Reserve’s forecasting team. “That said, the concern is that there’s enough weakness that could feed on itself.”

Policy makers have limited leeway to respond to the accumulating signs of slowdown. The Fed is completing its purchase of $600 billion of Treasury securities this month, leaving it with a $2.77 trillion balance sheet that some central bankers fret is already too big.

The record $1.6 trillion federal budget deficit that the White House projects this year has left President Barack Obama with little room to use fiscal policy to spur the economy, especially with Republican lawmakers calling for cuts in spending, rather than more investment.

“Our economy is not creating enough jobs, and Democrats’ binge of taxing, spending, borrowing and over-regulating is a big part of the reason why,” John Boehner, speaker of the House of Representatives and a Republican from Ohio, said in a statement on June 3.

Jobless Rate Climbs

Payrolls grew at the slowest pace in eight months in May and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.1 percent from 9 percent in April, Labor Department figures released on June 3 showed. The 54,000 rise in jobs followed a 232,000 gain in April and was below the 165,000 median increase forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The jobs numbers followed a series of economic statistics suggesting that the economy is decelerating. Manufacturing grew at its slowest pace in more than in year in May, according to Institute for Supply Management data released last week. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, rose less than forecast in April as households felt the pinch of grocery and energy costs, a Commerce Department report showed.

Stanley, who is chief economist at Pierpoint in Stamford, Connecticut, said he is betting that the softness in the economy will prove to be temporary, the result of a surge in gasoline prices that has since subsided and supply disruptions from the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Like Feroli, though, he is becoming more concerned.

Animal Spirits

“I’m starting to get worried,” Stanley said. The economy’s “animal spirits are fragile.”

Investor concern over the economy sent stocks down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 97.29 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,151.26 in New York on June 3, extending a fifth straight weekly loss, its longest slump since 2004. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1 percent to 1,300.16. Treasuries rose, pushing yields on two-year notes down three basis points to 0.43 percent, the lowest this year.

Feroli and Stanley started the year more optimistic than many of their peers. The economy was forecast to expand 3.1 percent in 2011, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey published Jan. 13. At the time, Stanley’s projection was 3.8 percent, while Feroli predicted 3.3 percent growth. Stanley has since cut his forecast to 2.9 percent while Feroli has lowered his to 2.4 percent.

Not Alone

The two are not alone in shaving their forecasts. Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, projected growth of 3.3 percent for 2011 at the start of the year, on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, and has reduced that to 3.1 percent.

Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc., has trimmed his 2011 forecast to 2.5 percent, down from a 3.1 percent estimate at the beginning of the year.

Economists aren’t the only ones with reason to worry: the latest jobs numbers pose a challenge to President Obama, whose re-election prospects hinge on pushing the jobless rate lower.

“The danger is that if we continue to take two steps forward, two steps back, people are going to continue to suffer a high level of economic anxiety,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist. “There’s no way that can be good politically for the president.”

Austan Goolsbee, Obama’s chief economist, said the jobs report represents a “little bump” in the road to recovery and that the broader trends are “substantially more positive” than when Obama took office in January 2009.

Facing Headwinds

“We should never read too much into any one month’s report,” Goolsbee, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a June 3 interview on Bloomberg Television. “No doubt we face some headwinds.”

The slow pace of the recovery doesn’t come as surprise to Kenneth Rogoff, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist who is now a professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. History shows that it takes time for economies to recover from financial crises like the one that hit the U.S.

Greenspan ‘Scared’ Over Deficit

Editor’s Note: I’m not sure who these people think will actually believe this. Alan Greenspan and the system he is servant to caused this deficit, yet he’s scared of it. This would be funny if it weren’t so serious.

The debt and deficit problem in the US is so serious that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan finds himself in the position of recommending the highest tax rates in more than a decade.

In an interview with CNBC, the former central bank chief described himself as a “small government, free-market economist” who nonetheless believes that in order to raise revenue and close the debt gap, 1990s-era taxes must be reinstituted.

It’s a measure, he said, of how serious the problem has become.

“The fact that I am in favor of going back to the Clinton tax structure is merely an indicator of how scared I am of this debt problem that has emerged and its order of magnitude,” he said.

The marginal tax rates fell in the early 2000s under former President George W. Bush, who instituted sweeping cuts that last year were renewed in a deal between President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans.

But the rates, particularly those on Americans earning more than $200,000 a year, have been the focus of intense debate and are considered in peril depending on how next year’s elections go. Congressional Democrats see higher taxes as a key to raising revenue to close the budget gap.

Greenspan expressed concern over the tenor of negotiations in Washington. He also endorsed the deficit cuts from Rep. Paul Ryan (R.-Wisc.) that have run into strong opposition due to targeting Medicare and Medicaid.

“If I had my own way, I like the Ryan budget in all respects and I think that essentially that sort of thing is what I would vote for if in fact we’re voting,” he said. “But the problem essentially is that is not going to get a majority vote in Congress or be signed by the president of the United States. The question is, what’s my fallback position?”

Telling America’s aging population that its entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will survive without significant changes is dishonest, Greenspan added.

“It’s not an issue of saying we’re going to have a choice for what we’re going to do. We don’t have the physical resources,” he said. The government is telling people “they’re guaranteed their medical services, and I think that’s not accurate. We cannot do that granted our lack of resources.”

Yet Greenspan said Congress has no choice but to approve raising the debt ceiling as the US would risk catastrophe if it does not meet its obligations.

“The problem is we’re all going and maneuvering around and as the days pass we’re getting closer and closer to the debt ceiling,” said Greenspan, who called Washington brinkmanship on the issue an “extraordinarily dangerous problem for this country.”

“What’s happening now is that there’s a realization of how serious this problem is and everyone is coming together to talk,” he said. “But compromise…?”

Americans Lower Expectations for Making Money

Published on: 06/03/2011
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Squeezed on both sides by stagnant wages and rising prices, consumers believe the chances of bringing home more money one year from now are at their lowest in 25 years, according to analysis of survey data by Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s economist Jan Hatzius looked at the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters poll, which asks consumers whether they believe their family income will rise more than inflation in the next 12 months. Hatzius applied a six-month moving average to smooth out the data and found that wage pessimism is at its lowest in more than two decades.

“Households are already very pessimistic about future real income growth,” wrote Goldman’s economist to clients. “A slowdown in job growth would presumably translate into a further deterioration in (expected and actual) real income growth. This would heighten the downside risks to our current forecast that real consumer spending will grow 2.5 percent to 3 percent over the next year and might call for another downward revision to our forecast for US GDP growth in 2011 and 2012.”

Real hourly wages have dropped 2.1 percent on an annualized basis over the past six months, a rate of decline not seen in 20 years, according to Goldman. This analysis is backed up by the other most-watched consumer survey from the Conference Board, which indicated earlier this week that the proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase was below 15 percent in May.

“I am much more concerned that the second half resurgence we all expect never arrives and by early 2012 we are in a recession,” said Joe Terranova, chief market strategist for Virtus Investment Partners and a ‘Fast Money’ trader.
yield broke below 3 percent Wednesday as investors bought bonds as a safehaven in case of the slowing economy.

The fact that income expectations are so low, makes the jobs outlook that much more important, argues Goldman and other investors. These same surveys show that consumers are not nearly as pessimistic about job growth. So once enthusiasm on the labor front is dented at all, then all aspects of consumer confidence are lost.

“The labor market is particularly important because household finances currently seem even more dependent on job growth than they are normally,” said Hatzius.

A typical recovery pattern goes like this: stock market bottoms, economic growth bottoms and then hiring and wage increases return. What’s unique and scary about this recovery is that the last piece of the recovery is not there.

In the 2001 recession, the country lost 2 percent of jobs from peak employment and then made that back in a 48- month cycle, according to data from money management firm Trutina Financial. In 1990, the jobs lost during the recession were recovered in 30 months. Right now, about 38 months from peak employment during the housing boom, there are still six percent fewer jobs out there. Making up that amount of jobs in 10 months or less would be unprecedented, if not impossible.

“The crawl out of this economic ditch is going to be long and slow,” said Patty Edwards, chief investment officer at Trutina. “Even if they’re employed, many consumers aren’t earnings what they were two years ago, either because they’re in lower-paying jobs or not getting as many hours.”

Prepare for QE3 – Analyst

Editor’s Note: The ‘monetary injection trade’? So investors are being reduced to guessing what the Fed may or may not do. This guy pretty much sums it up. They print and markets go up; they stop and markets dive. What a great recovery!

Investors should prepare themselves for a third round of quantitative easing, Simon Maughn, co-head of European equities at MF Global, told CNBC Wednesday.

“The bond market is going in one direction which is up-falling yields which is telling you quite clearly the direction of economic travel is downwards. Downgrades. QE3 (a third round of quantitative easing) is coming,” said Maughn. “The bond markets are all smarter than us, and that’s exactly what the bond markets are telling me.”

 

“What’s interesting in the bond markets over the last couple of sessions is, you’ve seen human traders trying to step in and call this turn in the market the same way that equities have done … and they have just been mowed down by the quant funds which are all about leverage, all about momentum and are betting on bond prices going up,” added Maughn.

Once again, the United States will step up as the marginal buyer of bonds, said Maughn.

“One more big injection of cash into the bond market should take you through at least the summer season into the beginning of the fourth quarter.”

“That cash injection will have the normal inflationary knock-on impact, driving back up commodities, supporting industrial stocks, dragging the financials up with them… I think it’s all about the monetary injection trade,” Maughn told CNBC.

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