Archives: June 2011

12 Straight Weeks Above 400K

Editor’s Note: Bernanke may appear confused now, but he told us in 2009 not to expect many jobs in his great ‘recovery’. Click here to read my post about this at the time Ben told us exactly what would happen.

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits barely fell last week, a government report showed on Thursday, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain momentum.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped just 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 428,000, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims dropping to 420,000. The prior week’s figure was unrevised at 429,000.

It was the 12th straight week that claims have been above 400,000, a level that is usually associated with a stable labor market. Employment stumbled badly in May, with employers adding just 54,000 jobs—the fewest in eight months.

“Payroll growth is going to be more like last month’s rather than first three months of the year,” said Troy Davig, senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York.

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 90,000 this month, according to a Reuters survey, with the unemployment rate edging down to 9.0 percent. The employment report for June will be released on July 8.

A Labor Department official said one state was estimated, noting there was nothing unusual in the state-level details.

The continued elevation of claims could raise concerns that the economic soft patch in the first half of the year could linger. The economy has been slammed by bad weather, high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions after the March earthquake in Japan.

However, many economists and the Federal Reserve believe activity will pick-up in the third quarter as these temporary factors ease.

The four-week moving average of unemployment claims, a better measure of underlying trends, nudged up 500 to 426,750.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 12,000 to 3.70 million in the week ended June 18. So-called continuing claims covered the survey week for the employment report’s household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived.

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits climbed 1,471 to 3.30 million in the week ended June 11, the latest week for which data is available. A total of 7.51 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs, down 30,701 from the prior week.

Dollar Seen Losing Reserve Status

Editor’s Note: Coming to a theater near you…

The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn.

More than half the managers, who were polled by UBS, predicted that the dollar would be replaced by a portfolio of currencies within the next 25 years.

That marks a departure from previous years, when the central bank reserve managers have said the dollar would retain its status as the sole reserve currency.

UBS surveyed more than 80 central bank reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds and multilateral institutions with more than $8,000bn in assets at its annual seminar for sovereign institutions last week. The results were not weighted for assets under management.

The results are the latest sign of dissatisfaction with the dollar as a reserve currency, amid concerns over the US government’s inability to rein in spending and the Federal Reserve’s huge expansion of its balance sheet.

“Right now there is great concern out there around the financial trajectory that the US is on,” said Larry Hatheway, chief economist at UBS.

The US currency has slid 5 per cent so far this year, and is trading close to its lowest ever level against a basket of the world’s major currencies.

Holders of large reserves, most notably China, have been diversifying away from the dollar. In the first four months of this year, three quarters of the $200bn expansion in China’s foreign exchange reserves was invested in non-US dollar assets, Standard Chartered estimates.

The prediction of a multipolar currency world replacing the current dollar dominance chimes with the thinking of some leading policymakers.

Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, last year proposed a new monetary system involving a number of major global currencies, including the dollar, euro, yen, pound and renminbi.

The system should also make use of gold, Mr Zoellick added. The results of the UBS poll also point to a growing role for bullion, with 6 per cent of reserve managers surveyed saying the biggest change in their reserves over the next decade would be the addition of more gold. In contrast to previous years, none of the managers surveyed was intending to make significant sales of gold in the next decade.

Central banks have bought about 151 tonnes of gold so far this year, led by Russia and Mexico, according to the World Gold Council, and are on track to make their largest annual purchases of bullion since the collapse in 1971 of the Bretton Woods system, which pegged the value of the dollar to gold.

The reserve managers predicted that gold would be the best performing asset class over the next year, citing sovereign defaults as the chief risk to the global economy.

The yellow metal has risen 19.5 per cent in the past year to trade at about $1,500 a troy ounce on Monday, buoyed by the emergence of sovereign debt concerns in the US as well as eurozone debt woes.

Why We’re in This Mess

The first shows the declining value of the dollar…. So much for the Fed mandate of price stability..

The Dollar's value: down the drain

The second shows what happens to your debt when you decide to become a consumer nation as opposed to a producer one and pay for it all with borrowed money.

The Cost of Consumerism

Important Market Report

Sutton & Associates has released a report outlining several critical market developments for its Centsible Investor subscribers and advisory clients. Given the recent failures of many previously dependable indicators, the emergence of a series of highly reliable charting patterns is a significant devlelopment for anyone seeking to better understand our financial markets.

For more information, please visit our newsletter page or contact us directly.

The War Over Money – My Two Cents

Once again, S&P is at it, issuing its monthly threat to the USGovt to fall into compliance or risk its AAA credit rating. On the surface, these warnings have become rather laughable in that the ratings agency feels the need to say something while, in effect, saying nothing. As time has gone by, the idea that the markets would be jittered by an actual ratings cut has become equally absurd. To hear it reported, you’d think the market consisted of a bunch of first graders who need S&P, Moody’s or Fitch to tell them the sky is blue.

To the average American, the threat comes not from what the ratings agencies might do, but what is being done (or not done) to cause the entire flap to begin with. The only real difference between the US and the PIIGS or anyone else is that we have a standing contract with the moneychangers to provide as much liquidity as is necessary to achieve whatever goals are desirable; not to America, but to the moneychangers themselves. It is a subtle distinction, but one that I notice way too many people who understand things are tripping over. We can’t talk about debt without talking about the Fed and we can’t have a reasonable discussion about the Fed without examining its motives. We have to mention that your local bank gets paid a 6% per annum dividend from the fed for its mandatory participation in the system, among many other things you won’t hear on television.

Obviously one of the ways dollar holders the world over have sought to fight back is through the ownership of precious metals. They are the anathema of fiat currencies. They cannot be forged, printed, or created as computer digits in their physical form. This is nothing new; there has been a secular bull market in metals for over a decade now while the dollar has faded from a desired asset into a ‘necessary evil’ as the world speeds headlong into the clutches of regional and perhaps even global currency regimes.

The moneychangers tolerated the bull market in precious metals for a time as even they recognize the value of real money. Central banks went from being net sellers of gold to net buyers several years ago and have been accumulating. The story of Asian demand, largely unspoken of in the USFinPress has been quietly driving the markets even higher. For US investors, precious metals became a bright spot considering the equity markets have lost around 20% when adjusted for the government’s overly modest inflation figures in the past 10 years. The inflation cat escaped the bag in 2006 and 2007. The Fed then cemented the truth that inflation is a monetary event by its quantitative easing actions. The subsequent rises in virtually every tangible asset since have created a clear causal relationship between monetary action and price formation that even the most stalwart of Keynesians will have an impossible task refuting. Finally, US investors had something that they could rely on to provide protection against inflation. They’d lost the ability to do so with traditional bank CDs, money market funds, and sweep programs. It is only fitting that the moneychangers now try to change the rules they themselves established. And it is even more fitting that they waited until so late in the game to do so. The attacks are subtle to the point that the average metals investor might not understand the implications, but there is a war going on over money itself.

The Attack on Precious Metals

The first of these two attacks has had a profound effect on metals investors, and at the same time created a massive opportunity through the resultant market dislocation. The attack plan all along by the banking cartel has been to discredit gold and silver as monetary instruments while at the same time accumulating large amounts of both. This rush to tangibles has left warehouses with increasingly smaller amounts of metal to work with, particularly silver (see graphic). Wonder of all wonders, people were stepping up to the plate, motivated by people like Jim Sinclair among others, and taking delivery of metals instead of playing in the paper metals markets. People have begun to understand how the ETFs and many other ‘paper gold’ instruments are merely tools of metals manipulators.

COMEX inventory

When silver closed within a whisker of $50 an ounce back in early May, CME took to action by hiking the margin maintenance requirements on silver contracts. Without going into the sordid details, in essence it made it more expensive to hold silver contracts in that the contract holder had to put up more capital. The stated reason behind this action was to limit ‘speculation’ in that particular market. The action followed the traditional mantra of the manipulators – anytime metals prices increase it is because of speculation and when they fall it is because of fundamentals. This is a losing battle that has cost the megabanks untold sums of fiat cash to fight, but the supply of currency is unlimited. CME has hiked margin requirements 6 times between late March and early May, beating silver down from the high $40s to the mid $30s. Gold has been affected as well, albeit to a much lesser extent on a percentage basis. The more recent of these hikes have been on gold contracts as well as silver.

CME Silver Margin Hikes

The second attack has come out recently in emails to customers of some online futures brokers who are interpreting the new financial ‘reform’ bill to inhibit the OTC sale of gold and silver on a leveraged basis. Without delving into the legalese, it will become essentially impossible, starting July 15, to buy or sell spot gold or silver in almost all cases. Many have asked if this is going to affect coin and physical sales, and there has been no indication that this is the case at all; it pertains to leveraged or margined transactions only. So far.

Again, the stated purpose of these actions in the aggregate is to curb ‘speculators’. Obviously we could split hairs on the semantics of such a statement since pretty much anyone who makes any type of investment is a speculator in that they are making an allocation in the hope (not guarantee) that they will profit from it. Oddly enough, in all this talk of speculators nobody bothered to mention the major banks that are routinely short millions of ounces of silver in the paper markets. Apparently they are not speculators, nor are they engaged in rather poorly disguised attempts at market manipulation. Those types of activities would quickly be sniffed out and stomped by Congress and our ever-vigilant regulators. Wouldn’t they?

It is pretty clear what is going on here. The cartel is losing its metal (and its mettle) and is attempting to flush out those contract holders who are most likely to take delivery – the marginal investors who buy futures contracts then remove the metal from the exchanges. Also obvious is the hope is that the increased margin reqs will drive them out. It will not bother the JPMorgans or the HSBCs in the least. If nothing else, these actions reek of desperation and are indicative of the fact that the physical, buy-and-hold crowd is substantial, is here to stay, and is in fact winning the war. Keep it up folks, congratulations on a job well done.

Trichet: Signals Flashing Red

Published on: 06/23/2011
Comments: No Comments

Editor’s Note: Another bailout anyone???

June 23 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said risk signals for financial stability in the euro area are flashing “red” as the debt crisis threatens to infect banks.

“On a personal basis I would say ‘yes, it is red’,” Trichet said late yesterday in Frankfurt after a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board, referring to the group’s planned “dashboard” to monitor risks. “The message of the board is that” the link between debt problems and banks “is the most serious threat to financial stability in the European Union.”

Trichet, who chairs the ESRB, made the remarks as European leaders meet in Brussels to discuss how to stave off a Greek default, while preparing a second bailout. The EU is trying to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis that followed the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and resulted in European governments setting aside more than $5 trillion to support banks.

The yield difference, or spread, between 10-year German bunds and Greek securities of a similar maturity was at 1,388 basis points today, up from 1,317 at the beginning of the month. Swaps on Greece rose 25 basis points to 2,012, signalling an 82 percent chance of default within five years, according to CMA.

‘Moral Support’

Greek bonds have been pushed lower as authorities bickered over ways to support the nation. The ECB and the German government have clashed over how much investors should contribute to alleviating Greece’s debt load, which reached 143 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. The German government has argued for an extension of the maturities of Greek bonds, with the ECB saying it opposes anything that could be interpreted as a default.

While Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou earlier this week won a vote of confidence, bolstering his new government’s chances of pushing through austerity measures to secure further financial aid, European finance ministers said earlier this week they would hold off on approving a 12 billion-euro ($17 billion) payment to the country promised for July until passage of the plans to cut the budget deficit and sell state assets.

“European leaders will try and convince Greeks and financial markets when they meet in Brussels today and tomorrow that they have a workable plan to help Athens avoid a debt default,” said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. They’ll use a “mixture of arm-twisting and moral support” to force Greece to adopt further reform.

‘Serious Threat’

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke downplayed the risk of a Greek default on U.S. banks, telling reporters yesterday that the impact would be “very small.” With “very few exceptions, the money-market mutual funds don’t have much direct exposure to the three peripheral countries which are currently dealing with debt problems,” he said.

The top U.S. prime money-market funds have about half their assets in securities issued by European banks, Fitch Ratings said in a report on June 21. The Bank for International Settlements estimated European lenders held $136.2 billion in loans to Greece at the end of 2010 and almost $2 trillion in Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. Greece, Ireland and Portugal all received external support.

BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, and rivals Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA may have their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service because of their Greek investments, the ratings company said on June 15. German banks could also be at risk from contagion, Fitch said last month.

“The most serious threat to financial stability in the EU stems from the interplay between the vulnerabilities of public finances in certain EU member states and the banking system,” Trichet said. There are “potential contagion effects across the union and beyond.”

Basel Meeting

Part of a wider regulatory overhaul, the 65-member ESRB aims to identify and warn of brewing risks in the financial system. Trichet and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, vice- chairman of the board, highlighted risks in areas including asset-price imbalances and exchange-traded funds.

King is also at the center of a regulatory overhaul in the U.K. and will hold a press conference in London tomorrow on Britain’s Financial Policy Committee. He said the ESRB meeting highlighted “the ability of banks to reduce maturity and, where relevant, currency mismatches in their funding structures and to absorb losses arising out of the ongoing credit cycle.”

The Frankfurt-based body can pass on matters to the heads of European governments if its warnings aren’t heeded. While the body will monitor macro-prudential risks, it may turn its attention to single institutions deemed systemically important.

The ESRB is one of four bodies in Europe’s financial regulation architecture. The others are the European Banking Authority, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and the European Securities and Markets Authority.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision meets in Basel, Switzerland, today to discuss how much extra capital the world’s largest and most systemically important banks will be forced to hold to avert another financial crisis. Global central bank governors are scheduled to meet under the auspices of the BIS in Basel from June 25.

S&P Ratings Threats are a Joke

Published on: 06/21/2011
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

Editor’s Note: It is time again for the once a month threat from S&P to the USA’s sterling credit rating. These ‘warnings’ are so commonplace now that they fail to even move markets or garner the slightest of attention. The only way for S&P to save face is to apply an honest rating to the most credit plagued entity on Earth.

LONDON (Reuters) – The risks of the U.S. losing its prized triple-A rating over the medium term have increased as the country faces a political impasse and nears its debt ceiling, Standard and Poor’s said on Tuesday.

While the ability to adapt both fiscal and monetary policy was a positive for the United States, the risk of a credit rating downgrade had increased due to a lack of political consensus on how to employ that flexibility, Moritz Kraemer, head of sovereign credit ratings for Europe at Standard & Poor’s, said on Tuesday.

“The problem is this flexibility needs to be employed and for that you need political consensus. That’s not very visible right now,” he said.

The United States is expected to exhaust its ability to meet financial obligations by August 2, but the Treasury department has said that date could shift.

“The downside risks in the medium term have increased and we did assign a negative outlook that signifies there’s a one in three chance the rating might go down in the next few years,” Kraemer told a Euromoney bond conference in London.

Standard & Poor’s threatened in April to downgrade the United States’ AAA credit rating unless the Obama administration and Congress find a way to slash the yawning federal budget deficit within two years.

Earlier on Tuesday, Fitch ratings said it saw risks of a debt default in the United States, whose top-rated bonds may suffer if the country doesn’t lift its fiscal borrowing ceiling.

IMF economist Paul Mills also took a negative line on the politics surrounding the U.S. debt situation, speaking at the conference.

“I don’t think the debate has yet even begun to understand how big a fiscal retrenchment is going to be needed,” Mills said.

“The parameters of debate are still in the foothills of the problem… we may well see an initial plaster applied until the presidential election then a more fundamental solution after that.”

ESM CREDITOR STATUS

Kraemer said a move to drop preferred credit status for the European Stability Mechanism — the region’s permanent safety net due to come into effect mid-2013 — would help Portugal and Ireland in their efforts to rebuild investor confidence.

Euro zone finance ministers decided on Monday that the regions’s permanent bailout fund will not have preferred creditor status if it lends to Greece, Ireland or Portugal, but would get paid back first in other cases.

Kraemer also said there was little progress in resolving Greece’s debt crisis after a weekend meeting of EU finance ministers deferred a decision to give Athens funding to avoid defaulting next month.

All but one of the 400 participants at the panel discussion — including fund managers, market strategists and economists — thought Greece would avoid another debt restructure even if it secured a new aid package as expected by next month.

Mills said that even though markets had a broad idea of banks’ exposure to Greek sovereign bonds, the risks of a widespread impact on interbank funding markets remained high.

“The concern is the reputational risk to bank funding markets, which will, I think, be the bigger channel (for contagion pressure),” Mills said.

“Peripheral banks are well behind the pace on the debt they plan to issue this year and so that’s increasing the pressure in Spain, Portugal and Ireland.”

Andy Sutton’s Liberty Talk Radio Appearance

Andy Sutton appears monthly on joe Cristiano’s Liberty Talk Radio. They discuss economic issues, take questions from callers and discuss how the macrosphere will effect Main Street USA.

The most recent installment was 6/15 and can be listened to by clicking here.

Greece Riots as Government Scrambles

Published on: 06/16/2011
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

Editor’s Note: I’d pay reasonably close attention to this if I were you. We will be facing our own reckoning day and austerity before too long and what you see there is exactly what you’re going to get here.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is set to announce a new cabinet in a concessionary move as he seeks support for new austerity measures.

Mr Papandreou, who will stay in his post, says he will put the cabinet to a vote of confidence in the parliament.

Renewed fears that Greece will default on its debt have shaken markets.

Greek ruling party deputies are holding an emergency meeting of their parliamentary group to discuss the current crisis.

President Karolos Papoulias has urged Greek politicians in a statement not to make matters worse by turning the economic crisis into a political one.

The proposed measures are necessary to gain EU and IMF aid, but have been met with fierce opposition in Greece.

Athens witnessed some of the most violent protests in more than a year on Wednesday as demonstrators went on to the streets and took part in a general strike.

A confidence vote in the new cabinet is expected on Sunday, reports say.

“The discussions on the vote of confidence will begin on Sunday evening and will be completed by midnight on Tuesday,” a parliamentary aide, who declined to be named, told Reuters news agency.

MPs’ resignations

Mr Papandreou had also faced the threat of a revolt in his socialist Pasok party over the controversial package.

On Thursday, Greek government MP George Floridis resigned in protest at the austerity plan. He was followed shortly afterwards by Ektoras Nasiokas, another Socialist MP.

Earlier this week, another Socialist MP defected, leaving the party to sit as an independent.

The resignations do not affect the party’s five-seat parliamentary majority as the seats are automatically allocated to the next Socialists in line, but they are an indication of the difficulties Mr Papandreou faces in winning confidence in his leadership, says the BBC’s Malcolm Brabant in Athens.

The IMF is expected to pay the next tranche of Greek aid of 12bn euros ($17bn) on the basis of a promise of future EU funding rather than any concrete commitments.

This would give the EU more time to finalise a package to help Greece.

Assuming that some form of Greek government emerges out of the political discussions now under way in Athens, it is now almost certain that Greece will get the official money it needs to stay above water a few more weeks, notably the next tranche of last year’s EU-IMF bailout, says the BBC’s economics editor, Stephanie Flanders.

All the eurozone ministers have to do is agree in principle to fill the funding gap in the Greek economic programme, which they will now do on Sunday, adds our correspondent.

Eurozone finance ministers will decide on a new bailout in July, according to EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn.

“I am confident that next Sunday, the Eurogroup will be able to decide on the disbursement of the fifth tranche of the loans for Greece in early July. And I trust that we will also be able to conclude the pending review, in agreement with the IMF,” he said in a statement.

Such an approach “means that the funding of the Greek sovereign debt can now be ensured until September, while we take the decisions for the medium term, beyond September, in July”, he added.

This is a critical month for Greece, our correspondent says. It has very little money left in its coffers and will literally run out of cash in July unless it receives the next tranche of money from the first bail-out which was agreed in May 2010.

‘Road of duty’

Mr Papandreou, who came to power in 2009, has not indicated the extent of his ministerial shuffle, but correspondents say it may include the replacement of Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou.

Economic analysts predict the post is likely to be filled by Lucas Papademos, a former vice-president of the European Central Bank.

George Papandreou: “This is a time of duty”

This would be met with approval from the IMF and EU, but whether it will satisfy members of parliament remains unclear, our correspondent says.

The government is seeking approval for a package of 28bn euros (£24.6bn; $40.5bn) of cuts, due to take effect from 2012 to 2015.

The policies are required for the release of the next tranche of aid – 12bn euros – from the EU and IMF.

During talks, Mr Papandreou was said to have offered to step down to clinch a coalition, but later agreed to carry on.

Greece’s debt was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s ratings agency earlier this week, making the debt the lowest-rated of the countrries it monitors.

On Wednesday, tens of thousands of activists and unionists gathered in Syntagma square in Athens, near parliament.

A further 20,000 people also demonstrated in Thessaloniki, police said.

The general strike was the third in Greece this year.

The events destabilised markets, with major indexes witnessing the biggest drop on Wednesday since 1 June, and the euro sliding more than 1% against the dollar.

Yields on Greece’s 10-year bonds reached a record high of 18.4%.

June’s Centsible Investor is Available

June’s edition of CI is available. Click Here to get your subscription started.

The deepening equity purge, coupled with continued weakness in silver cost the model portfolio about 3% this past month. While we’re not at all happy with 3%, the paper equity markets are down now around 6% during the same period, so that is encouraging. Our two newest components in the dividend slice, ironically, are both showing modest gains since we added them at the end of April and are providing some much-needed diversification.

This month’s keynote is called ‘Crash Signature’ and takes a look at what a US default will look like on Main Street. We cover the idea of the outright default as well as the slower, inflationary type in situ default where the Fed assists the USGovt in hyperinflating away its debts. Our major creditors are already onto this game. There is actionable information in this article as it gives you some easy steps that will help mitigate the effects of either scenario.

Energy continues to be a hot area. OPEC is now publicly admitting the likelihood of a shortage of crude oil this fall. Saudi Arabia has promised (once again) to pump all that is needed. We doubt they can. We are not alone. Resource constraints are the order of the day moving forward. Better get used to it. Oddly, the same types of changes in living style that will help you deal with a default are the same types of measures that will help you lessen the blow of peak oil.

In our metals report, we analyze CME’s latest salvo against the precious metals markets. They are losing their metal and the battle to keep prices contained. These margin requirement hikes are one of the last weapons left in their arsenal and the fact they are using it means we’re that much closer to the end of the precious metals cartel. We are still offering gratis consults to any of our year or longer subscribers on precious metals. With all the dislocations in the markets right now and what is likely to get even worse moving forward, why not take advantage? It is a free service for any subscriber who has been with us at least a year or is currently paid up for a subscription of a year or more. If you know someone who might benefit from this valuable service, please pass our information along to them – it is how we grow.

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