Archives: December 2010

December’s Centsible Investor is Available

This month’s Centsible Investor is now available. For more information or to subscribe, Click Here

A quick status update on the Original Model Portfolio: Currently, the dividend-producing segment has a total return of 13.30% including dividends. This while the major indexes are off around 20% during the same time period.

Overall, the model portfolio with its newly added segments is up 11.47% with the Precious Metals leading the way, up 17.32% with only half the monies in the segment deployed at this time. Our precious metals purchases are up a whopping 36% in less than a year’s time. The speculative segment is up 8.15%, and we only began adding to this slice a few months ago. The fixed income slice is up 5.00% with the first additions coming just 11 months ago.

The 11%+ return is a bit deceiving since the portfolio is barely 50% invested at this time. The balance of the value is sitting in cash waiting for opportunities as we identify and present them.

On November 2nd we dispatched to our subscriber base regarding our in-house econometric interest rate model. The model had just issued a rather strong signal on the 10-year Treasury note. In the month and a half since that dispatch, the 10-year note has plunged with yields rising 96 bps to 3.49%. This month’s keynote article focuses on interest rates, the model, and the implications of a higher cost of borrowing for the USGovt.

This month’s energy report further dissects the situation with regards to imports, exports, US production and the systematic gap between what we’re consuming and what is being brought to market. We also follow up on some breaking news regarding the Marcellus shales in the eastern US.

Each month our precious metals report will now contain pertinent news and events in the rare earth space as well as analysis of additional REO companies moving forward. Our first REO play has done very well in the month since it was added and we’re expecting big things from this little known, but heavy hitter moving forward.

In the market report we discuss prevailing conditions from both a technical and fundamental perspective and analyze our model portfolio slice by slice. We’ve got some big winners and we’re going to cut one loose to lock in some nice profits.

Fed Pledges, Bonds Plunge

Rex at MW hit it on the head this time. We do in fact have a deplorable labor market. And every time Bernanke opens his mouth about monetizing debt, bond investors race for the exits. The 10-year yield is up 96 bps since our November 2nd alert to subscribers!

The Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy steady at Tuesday’s meeting, as expected. The target interest rate is still 0% to 0.25%, and the FOMC affirmed its intentions to buy $600 billion in Treasurys over the next few months as part of its extraordinary quantitative easing to boost economic growth. Read our full story on the FOMC.

The statement contained no surprises and very few changes. Read the full text.

One notable change in emphasis came in the very first sentence, where no one could miss it: “The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment,” the FOMC said. Last time, the Fed had said that “the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow.”

Markets get lift from data

Investors are dealing with a busy schedule of economic indicators and news, while preparing for the Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement at 2:15 pm. Stocks got an early lift on strong retail sales data, but Best Buy swooned on a poor earnings report. Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Kathleen Madigan and Michael Casey report.

Same meaning, but with a heightened focus on jobs.

The new wording is the clearest statement yet that the Fed’s top concern is high unemployment.

There was no hint that members of the FOMC were regretting their decision to push more liquidity into the economy through bond purchases. Since that decision in early November, bond yields have soared, exactly the opposite reaction the Fed was hoping for from its second quantitative easing program.

We won’t know for three weeks (with the release of the truncated minutes) whether members debated scaling back the QE2 program. We do know that Fed governors and presidents have been fairly reluctant to air their differences in public over the past month.

For now, it seems that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues remain focused on the deplorable state of the job market, and not on gyrations in financial markets.

Moody’s Cries Wolf on US Credit Rating (Again)

Editor’s Comment: This is really getting old folks, isn’t it????

Moody’s warned Monday that it could move a step closer to cutting the U.S. Aaa rating if President Obama’s tax and unemployment benefit package becomes law.

The plan agreed to by President Obama and Republican leaders last week could push up debt levels, increasing the likelihood of a negative outlook on the United States rating in the coming two years, the ratings agency said.

A negative outlook, if adopted, would make a rating cut more likely over the following 12-to-18 months.

For the United States, a loss of the top Aaa rating, reduce the appeal of U.S. Treasuries, which currently rank as among the world’s safest investments.

“From a credit perspective, the negative effects on government finance are likely to outweigh the positive effects of higher economic growth,” Moody’s analyst Steven Hess said in a report sent late on Sunday.

After Obama announced his plan, Treasury prices fell sharply in volatile trade last week and yields have hit a six-month high, in part due to concerns over the effect the package will have on government debt levels.

If the bill becomes law, it will “adversely affect the federal government budget deficit and debt level,” Moody’s said.

On Monday, the Democratic-led U.S. Congress moved toward grudging approval of President Obama’s deal with Republicans to extend expiring tax cuts, even for the wealthiest Americans, Last week, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings both expressed concerns about the U.S.’s rating longer term, with Moody’s fearing the impact if the tax cuts become permanent. For more, see

In a market obsessed with the euro sovereign debt crisis, the Moody’s note reminded foreign exchange investors about their worries of growing U.S. debt and was a factor pressuring the dollar on Monday.

The cost of insuring U.S. government debt in the credit default swap market was little changed on Monday at around 41 basis points, or $41,000 per year to insure $10 million in debt for five years, according to Markit Intraday.

Negative Impact

A negative outlook would indicate that the rating may be more likely to be cut from the top Aaa rating over the following 12 to 18 months. The United States currently has a stable outlook, indicating a rating change is not anticipated over this time frame.

Moody’s estimates the cost of the funding the proposed tax bill, along with unemployment benefits and other policy measures, may be between $700 and $900 billion, which will raise the ratio of government debt to GDP to 72 to 73 percent, depending on the effects on nominal economic growth.

This means that the government’s debt relative to revenues will decline much more slowly over the coming two years, to just under 400 percent from 420 percent at the end of fiscal year 2010.

“This is a very high ratio compared with both history and other highly rated sovereigns,” Moody’s said.

Fudge Factor in Trade Data?

For many years now this column has been periodically dedicated to the analysis of economic reports, and the exposure of ‘fudging’ that takes place in most macroeconomic data series. Immediately upon looking at this morning’s trade data it seemed that, once again, something was amiss. It probably jumped out at me because I had just finished a crude oil analysis report for December’s Centsible Investor and the information was still fresh in my mind. However, I am quite sure that I am not the only one who noticed this.

In Exhibit 17 of this morning’s Foreign Trade Report, found on the Census Bureau’s website, the report claimed that the United States imported 9.656 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September of this year. The report goes on to assert that October’s level was 8.209 mbpd. The crude in question sold for an average cost of $72.36, and $74.18 per barrel in September and October respectively. This accounts for a $2.1 Billion decrease in our crude oil import bill from September to October.

FT900 Report - October 2010

This struck me as odd, especially considering the higher relative price and the drastic nature of the drop in imports, so I took a look at the EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) data for the same periods. The EIA reported average (derived from the weekly import numbers) daily imports of crude oil of 9.06 mbpd in September and 8.74 mpbd in October; certainly not the drastic drop purported to have existed in the Census Bureau’s data. The average prices for that oil, according to the EIA, were $71.71 and $75.84 per barrel in September and October respectively. Not a big deal, right? What’s a few cents here and there? Well, it turns out when the numbers are totaled up that, according to the EIA, our oil import bill for September 2010 was $19.49 Billion, and our bill for October was $20.55 Billion, an increase of nearly a billion dollars!

What’s the Big Deal?

Regardless of why this discrepancy exists, it important that it be exposed. We can dispute the validity of data from either group. Obviously the EIA doesn’t actually go out and dipstick every storage tank from sea to shining sea each week. I’ll readily admit that. And the Census Bureau? I’m not sure they could count much of anything at this point since they’ve laid off most of their temporary help (yes, the Census Bureau is actually the subgroup of the Commerce Department that compiles and releases FT900 – the Foreign Trade Report). Perhaps there is a difference in methodologies by the two groups. Again, the reasons aren’t as important as the results.

These discrepancies in reporting are a big deal because of the takeaway messages and bias that the media applies to the data. In this case, the message is clear: The economy is primed for growth and the lower trade deficit will provide the fuel. Here’s a brief sampling…

From Bloomberg…

“It is good news all around. The deficit is down as exports are up, oil imports are down, and nonoil imports rebounded moderately. The overall U.S. trade deficit in October shrank to $38.7 billion from a revised $44.6 billion shortfall the month before…. The decrease in goods imports was led by a $1.7 billion drop in industrial supplies with the crude oil subcomponent down $2.3 billion.”

From MarketWatch… “The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in October, surprising economists and suggesting that the trade sector may make a positive contribution to growth in the fourth quarter for the first time since the final three months of 2009…. The value of U.S. crude-oil imports fell to $18.88 billion in October from $20.96 billion in September despite a rise in the price of a barrel of oil to $74.18 from $72.36 in the previous month. The quantity of crude imports fell to 254.5 million barrels from 289.7 million in September.”

So once again, the average person is confused. They’re hearing that our imported oil bill is decreasing; yet anything they buy that is made from or with oil is going up steadily. Another component in this report that I’ll leave for another time is the food component. A closer look at the data reveals that food price ‘inflation’ contributed quite a bit to the nominal dollar gain in exports in October’s data. This doesn’t purport well for growth anywhere, but is yet another (un)intended consequence of Central Bank quantitative easing.

Economic Distress Index – Update

Here is the latest update on our internet economic distress index. As can be seen in the graphic, distress on the consumer has increased for the first time in nearly a year. Most of the decrease in distress over the past 12 months came from a marginally stronger dollar and a rather weak attempt at a retrenchment in terms of consumer credit burden. With the uptick this past month in consumer credit outstanding, we see consumers taking out loans just as rates are starting to climb. More next month….

Sutton

US Treasuries Slammed in Sell-Off

(Our proprietary model identified this move more than a month ago and we dispatched our subscribers on 11/2/2010)

US Treasuries suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, following a torrid month that has seen borrowing costs for western governments soar.

Germany, Japan and the US have all seen their benchmark market interest rates rise by more than a quarter in the past month while the UK’s has risen by nearly a fifth.

“You could argue that we are at a new stage where the global cost of capital goes higher and higher,” said Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries hit a six-month high of 3.33 per cent on Wednesday, up 0.39 percentage points from Monday and 1 percentage point higher than its October low. Japanese five-year yields also rose the most in two years, while Germany’s benchmark borrowing costs hit 3 per cent. “People are getting out of the market and moving to the sidelines, feeling shellshocked at the speed of the rise in yields,” said David Ader, strategist at CRT Capital.

US 10-year yields have risen by about 0.76 percentage points since November 8, those of Germany by 0.62 percentage points, the UK by 0.53 percentage points and Japan by 0.29 percentage points as the prices of the bonds has fallen.

Yields are still relatively low compared with long-term trends but investors are starting to fret that they could continue to move sharply higher. “Yields at this level are clearly unsustainable,” said Paul Marson, chief investment officer at Lombard Odier, the Swiss private bank.

The market moves came after President Barack Obama agreed with Congressional Republicans to extend Bush-era tax cuts and combine them with a $120bn payroll tax holiday. But investors and traders were divided over whether that was sufficient to explain the recent global spike in yields.

The primary explanation is that growth expectations have increased because of better economic data and the “second stimulus” provided by the US government. But others argue it could be due to fears that the US Federal Reserve will not follow through on asset purchases or because of higher government deficits. “It is probably all three,” said Mr Major.

Germany has suffered from fears it could bear a high cost for bailing out troubled eurozone countries. Stock markets in Germany, the UK and Hong Kong all fell on Wednesday.

Food Stamp Rolls Continue to Rise

Published on: 12/08/2010
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: No Comments

More people tapped food stamps to pay for groceries in September as the recession and lackluster recovery have prompted more Americans to turn to government safety net programs to make ends meet.

Some 42.9 million people collected food stamps last month, up 1.2% from the prior month and 16.2% higher than the same time a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Nationwide 14% of the population relied on food stamps as of September but in some states the percentage was much higher. In Washington, D.C., Mississippi and Tennessee – the states with the largest share of citizens receiving benefits – more than a fifth of the population in each was collecting food stamps.

Food Stamp Use, by State

Click on the top of any column to resort the chart.

State Number of people on food stamps Sept. 2010 Year-over-year change Month-over-month change Percent of population on food stamps
U.S. total 42,911,042 16.2% 1.2% 14%
Alabama 849,785 12.8% 1.2% 18%
Alaska 81,196 15.4% -0.1% 11.6%
Arizona 1,044,410 10.9% -0.3% 15.8%
Arkansas 483,309 8.4% 0.7% 16.7%
California 3,466,974 17.7% 1.2% 9.4%
Colorado 424,878 16.8% 0.1% 8.5%
Connecticut 364,341 22.8% 1.4% 10.4%
Delaware 124,755 21.9% 2.6% 14.1%
District of Columbia 128,759 16.4% 1.7% 21.5%
Florida 2,881,019 25.8% 2.5% 15.5%
Georgia 1,693,976 16.4% 0.7% 17.2%
Hawaii 147,250 15.7% 1.2% 11.4%
Idaho 214,378 39.1% 1.2% 13.9%
Illinois 1,839,051 18.6% 8.5% 14.2%
Indiana 857,992 13.3% 0.6% 13.4%
Iowa 352,164 10.9% 0% 11.7%
Kansas 291,126 18% 0.6% 10.3%
Kentucky 804,538 8.7% -0.1% 18.6%
Louisiana 864,112 10.3% 0.9% 19.2%
Maine 237,530 9.6% 0.1% 18%
Maryland 616,102 20.4% 1.5% 10.8%
Massachusetts 785,435 12.2% 1% 11.9%
Michigan 1,884,751 15.2% 0.4% 18.9%
Minnesota 455,852 17.2% 0.7% 8.7%
Mississippi 601,432 8.7% 1.1% 20.4%
Missouri 928,183 7.9% 0.1% 15.5%
Montana 119,039 15.8% 0.1% 12.2%
Nebraska 169,385 14.5%td> 0% 9.4%
Nevada 314,253 28.7% 1.5% 11.9%
New Hampshire 110,576 20.4% 0.6% 8.3%
New Jersey 690,075 27.2% 1.9% 7.9%
New Mexico 390,154 20.1% 0.6% 19.4%
New York 2,895,995 13.3% 0.8% 14.8%
North Carolina 1,476,207 18.2% 2.3% 15.7%
North Dakota 61,229 7.1% 0.3% 9.5%
Ohio 1,683,877 11.9% 0.8% 14.6%
Oklahoma 613,531 14% 0.9% 16.6%
Oregon 738,702 13.2% 0.7% 19.3%
Pennsylvania 1,644,259 13.2% 0.3% 13%
Rhode Island 150,450 26% 1.3% 14.3%
South Carolina 832,651 11.3% 0.3% 18.3%
South Dakota 99,504 14.9% 0% 12.2%
Tennessee 1,267,478 8% 0.5% 20.1%
Texas 3,837,839 24.6% 0.9% 15.5%
Utah 269,819 25.9% 3.8% 9.7%
Vermont 87,838 7.7% 1% 14.1%
Virginia 826,277 13.8% 0.7% 10.5%
Washington 1,006,518 16.4% 0.8% 15.1%
West Virginia 343,764 5.1% -0.6% 18.9%
Wisconsin 762,287 21.3% 0.6% 13.5%
Wyoming 35,615 17.2% 0.2% 6.5%

Crisis or Coup?

As some of the disclosures required by the financial reform bill are made, everyday Americans are starting to figure out what many zealous economy and market watchers have known since 2008: The Fed’s rescue programs weren’t just aimed at domestic banks with Manhattan headquarters. The aid stretched far into the reaches of everyday America, with the recipients of approximately $885 billion in loans still not disclosed.

For those who had not already arrived at this conclusion, it should now be crystal clear: the collapse of 2008 was a mini financial coup d’ etat. The very institutions and individuals charged with the oversight of our financial system were the same people who were helping to blow up asset bubbles and perpetuating cheap, easy credit. I think that it is very important to understand that these folks have been systematically doing the exact same thing to our willing government in the form of debt monetization. In the 1990’s and forward, they sucked in a willing consumer with massive expansion of available credit and sleazy marketing campaigns aimed at convincing people that it was really ok to owe $15,000 on a credit card at 19.9% interest.

The American people and their government both readily embraced the concept of deficit spending and debt accumulation as a viable path to prosperity. The Federal Reserve and its member (owner) banks have been the primary facilitators in this great transition from prosperity to poverty. Its actions in 2008 and 2009 were nothing more than an attempt to snare even more control of the financial system and the economy, while kicking the can down the road just a little further. Banks have gone from their traditional role as financial intermediaries to micromanagers of the economy. And this has all taken place in a little over a generation.

The startling part of what has transpired is that more and more of our economic destiny than ever now falls under the direct control of a panel of unelected and virtually unaccountable banking aristocrats. These bankers made decisions in 2008 not only to shower electronic dollars created from nothing on Wall Street banks, but on international banks, and companies like Harley Davidson, Caterpillar, GE, and Verizon. GE is an easy one since it has a huge exposure to default risk through its banking operations. But what of the rest? These supposedly healthy companies couldn’t make it through a few months of tight credit without running to the Fed for assistance?

Here’s a breakdown of the assistance: The Fed purchased commercial paper (CP) from Harley Davidson 33 times in 2008 and early 2009 for a grand total of $2.3 Billion. It purchased commercial paper from Verizon twice for a total of $1.5 Billion. GE was the big winner at the time, selling to the Fed 12 times for a grand total of $16 Billion. However, the biggest winner of all is Uncle Sam who is has already sold and will continue to sell to the Fed for at least another $600 Billion.

The mere existence of this activity should in and of itself reveal the very phony nature of a fiat paper money system. However, in all the mainstream news articles (many of which are owned by GE incidentally), nobody has bothered to ask where the Fed got the $3.3 Trillion it used to conduct the bailouts.

Fed Balance Sheet

Putting in Perspective

Back in April of this year, Will Hutton of the London Observer wrote:

“The global financial crisis, it is now clear, was caused not just by the bankers’ colossal mismanagement. No, it was due also to the new financial complexity offering up the opportunity for widespread, systemic fraud. Friday’s announcement that the world’s most famous investment bank, Goldman Sachs, is to face civil charges for fraud brought by the American regulator is but the latest of a series of investigations that have been launched, arrests made and charges made against financial institutions around the world. Big Finance in the 21st century turns out to have been Big Fraud. Yet Britain, centre of the world financial system, has not yet leveled charges against any bank; all that we’ve seen is the allegation of a high-level insider dealing ring which, embarrassingly, involves a banker advising the government. We have to live with the fiction that our banks and bankers are whiter than white, and any attempt to investigate them and their institutions will lead to a mass exodus to the mountains of Switzerland. The politicians of the Labour and Tory party alike are Bambis amid the wolves.

Just consider the roll call beyond Goldman Sachs. In Ireland Sean Fitzpatrick, the ex-chair of the Anglo Irish bank – a bank which looks after the Post Office’s financial services – was arrested last month and questioned over alleged fraud. In Iceland last week a dossier assembled by its parliament on the Icelandic banks – huge lenders in Britain – was handed to its public prosecution service. A court-appointed examiner found that collapsed investment bank Lehman knowingly manipulated its balance sheet to make it look stronger than it was – accounts originally audited by the British firm Ernst and Young and given the legal green light by the British firm Linklaters. In Switzerland UBS has been defending itself from the US’s Inland Revenue Service for allegedly running 17,000 offshore accounts to evade tax. Be sure there are more revelations to come – except in saintly Britain.”

Hutton pretty much summed up what most of the sentiment here in the US is: The crisis of 2008 is starting to stink – bad. Remember that, at the time, the Fed assured everyone that it was saving the financial system. How many companies did the Fed end up buying CP from anyway? I don’t think for a minute that we even NOW have the full story on what went on. And that begs the question how many other firms were allowed to languish and become ripe for government takeover. Not to mention the small businesses that didn’t have access to the Fed’s supposed charity. And they still don’t since many are still unable to get credit, except via their small business credit cards and the accompanying astronomical rates. More than two years after the beginning of the credit crunch, this situation has still not been resolved. This is allowed to continue while banks rake in huge profits by skinning fractions of pennies from each other by front-running transactions on the exchanges. The same folks have been amassing huge reserves at the Fed itself. I have been begging people to ask the important questions for two years now: Where did the bailout money go? We now have what at best can be considered a partial answer there. Why is the Fed paying banks to keep reserves at the central bank and incentivizing them to do so by paying interest? This is a very important question given the fact that Bernanke’s talking points have centered on making credit available to small businesses!

There are two main (and possibly more) reasons for this accumulation of reserves. The first is that banks are lying through their teeth and expect further massive losses from bad loans, bad bets, and trillions more in OTC derivative beatings. The second potential reason is that banks (and the Fed) are preparing for a fire sale of the American economy. This is by far the worst of the two scenarios and would fall squarely into the category of a financial coup d’ etat.

OTC Derivatives Return Heroes or Villains?

The bottom line in all of this is that eventually a critical mass is reached and the truth is demanded. Even then, it will be slow to come out, and will be a process. We’re lucky if we know 10% of what went on during the second half of 2008. If we want the rest we’re going to have to fight tooth and nail for it. Above all else the financial establishment is well versed in self-preservation tactics. However, what we do know certainly makes it clear that the survival of the financial ‘system’ was put well ahead of the economy that should be sustaining it. Not the other way around.

Strategists Warn Failure to Extend Cuts Could Crash Markets

Failure by Congress to extend the Bush tax cuts, especially locking in the 15 percent capital gains tax rate, will spark a stock market sell off starting December 15 as investors move to lock in gains at a lower rate than the 20 percent it would jump to next year, warn analysts. [See who gets the most money from the financial industry.]

While it is unclear how bad the sell off could be, it could wipe out the year’s gains, they warn.

“Capital gains tax rate will increase from 15 to 20 percent if the tax cuts are not extended. The last time the capital gains tax rate increased–on Jan. 1, 1987 from 20 to 28 percent–investors realized their gains at the lower tax rate,” said Daniel Clifton at a Washington partner at Strategas Research Partners. “We would expect a similar effect this time around as investors see the tax rate going up and choose to realize their gains and incur the 15 percent tax.” [See a gallery of political caricatures.]

In a memo to clients, Clifton says that the date most clients are focused on is December 15th for a deal in Congress before beginning to sell. One reason: Many stock options expire that day and investors have to act.

The later Congress acts, he tells Whispers, “the more pressure that will build on the stock market.”

Worse, talk that Congress will simply pass retroactive fixes to the tax system won’t help, since investors will take the sure thing and sell rather than rely on Capitol Hill. “Fixing the issue next year will not negate these negative impacts,” said Clifton.

Ditto for a retroactive fix to the alternative minimum tax, he writes in the client memo. “The talk of retroactively fixing the tax cuts ignores the fact that the AMT patch cannot be retroactively fixed and is the largest component of the tax increase. Hence, in March and April, 27 million taxpayers will be facing an additional $70 billion in tax payments. The hit to consumer spending would be particularly significant,” he writes.

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