Archives: 27 August 2010

Analyst: Citigroup is Cooking the Books

Published on: 08/27/2010
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An all-out war has broken out between Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and a prominent securities analyst who is saying that the big bank may be cooking the books by inflating its earnings through an accounting gimmick, FOX Business Network has learned.

The analyst, Mike Mayo, of the securities firm CLSA, has been telling investors that Citigroup (NYSE:C) should take a writedown, or a loss on some $50 billion of “deferred-tax assets,” or DTAs. That is a tax credit the firm has on its financial statement that Mayo says is inflating profits at the big bank by as much as $10 billion.

For that critique, Mayo has been denied one-on-one meetings with top players of the firm, including CEO Vikram Pandit, Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach, and any other member of management, while other analysts enjoy full access to the bank’s top executives, FBN has learned.

In fact, Mayo hasn’t had a meeting with Pandit or anyone in Citigroup management since around the time of the financial crisis, in the fall of 2008, when Citigroup was on the verge of extinction and needed an unprecedented series of government bailouts to survive.

Since then Citigroup has been profitable, albeit marginally. Though it posted a loss for the full year of 2009, after it repaid a government bailout loan during the fourth quarter and began to unwind Uncle Sam’s ownership stake. One reason Citigroup may be unwilling to write off its DTAs: to do so may sink the troubled bank back into unprofitability.

Now, Mayo’s continued criticism of the firm’s accounting has turned a testy relationship between Pandit and Mayo into one of the most-bitter analyst-CEO confrontations seen on Wall Street for some time. When asked about the matter, a spokeswoman for Citigroup would only say “I have no comment on Mike Mayo.”

Mayo told FBN: “I’d like to know why all my competitors get meetings with Pandit and the key people there and I don’t.”

Stock research has been among the most controversial—and some would say—conflicted businesses on Wall Street. Companies employ a number of methods to force analysts to hype their shares, including as Mayo is charging, withholding access to key executives who can provide insight into the company’s operations. In 2003, big firms like Citigroup and others paid billions of dollars in penalties to settle regulatory charges that their analysts inflated stock ratings in order to win lucrative stock underwriting business from the companies they cover, leading to billions of dollars in losses for investors who relied on the dubious analysis to buy stock.

Mayo, meanwhile, has had a sometimes-testy relationship with the various companies he covers. While other securities analysts look to curry favor with management in order to gain access, or so their firm’s could do business with the companies they cover, Mayo is often confrontational during meetings and on analyst conference calls.

In September 2000, Mayo was let go from Credit Suisse, people close to the firm have said, because of his history of downgrading the big banks which made no secret of their displeasure with his work, even though it won him a No. 2 spot in the coveted Institutional Investor rankings of bank analysts.

In September 2002, Mayo launched a major broadside against Citigroup, slamming the bank for its regulatory problems, namely its relationship helping to prop up scandal-plagued companies like Enron and WorldCom, as well as the management style of then CEO Sandy Weill. Mayo referred to Citigroup as “Noah’s Ark ” because Weill kept packing layers of management into the bank, including appointing two senior executives to run each business when only one was necessary.

People close to Citigroup say one of the current problems between the company and Mayo is the analyst’s insistence that Citigroup is possibly violating securities laws by failing to take losses on its DTAs. During conference calls, Citigroup has maintained that its accounting is in full compliance with the law, though Mayo has told investors the Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate the matter.

An SEC spokesman had no immediate comment.

Economy ‘Barely Has a Pulse’ – AP

Published on: 08/27/2010
Categories: Current Events, Economics
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WASHINGTON (AP) – The government is about to confirm what many people have felt for some time: The economy barely has a pulse.

The Commerce Department on Friday will revise its estimate for economic growth in the April-to-June period and Wall Street economists forecast it will be cut almost in half, to a 1.4 percent annual rate from 2.4 percent.

That’s a sharp slowdown from the first quarter, when the economy grew at a 3.7 percent annual rate, and economists say it’s a taste of the weakness to come. The current quarter isn’t expected to be much better, with many economists forecasting growth of only 1.7 percent.

Such slow growth won’t feel much like an economic recovery and won’t lead to much hiring. The unemployment rate, now at 9.5 percent, could even rise by the end of the year.

“The economy is going to limp along for the next few months,” said Gus Faucher, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. There’s even a one in three chance it could slip back into recession, he said.

Many temporary factors that boosted the economy earlier this year are fading. Companies built up their inventories after cutting them sharply in the recession to match slower sales. The increase provided a boost to manufacturers, but now many companies’ stockpiles are in line with sales and don’t need to grow as much.

In addition, the impact of the government’s $862 billion fiscal stimulus program is lessening.

That leaves the private sector to pick up the slack. But businesses are cutting back on their spending on machines, computers and software, according to a government report earlier this week. And the housing sector is slumping again after a popular home buyer’s tax credit expired in April.

“What we’re seeing is that the hand-off to the private sector is not looking as robust as we had previously hoped,” said Ben Herzon, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisors.

Many analysts say the uncertainty surrounding the economy is holding back consumers from spending and companies from investing and hiring.

Consumers can’t be sure their jobs are safe, with unemployment so high. Business executives don’t know if sales and profits will grow enough to justify adding jobs. And potential changes to tax laws at the end of this year and other policy reforms also make it hard to plan ahead, economists say.

“People have been overwhelmed by uncertainty,” said Ethan Harris, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

A big reason the government will mark down its estimate of last quarter’s gross domestic product is that imports surged much more in June than expected. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy’s output and covers everything from auto production to haircuts.

Imports rose by 3 percent to just over $200 billion in June, while exports fell to $150.5 billion, pushing the trade gap to almost $50 billion, the biggest in nearly two years. Friday’s report may show that the higher imports knocked as much as 3 percentage points off second quarter growth, economists at Goldman Sachs estimate.

But trade isn’t likely to be as big a drag in the current quarter. With businesses slowing their spending on inventories and capital equipment, imports are likely to slow.

Housing, which added to the economy’s growth in the second quarter, is now likely dragging it down. The homebuyer’s tax credit boosted home sales in the spring, raising real estate brokers’ commissions.

But home sales fell sharply in July, and new home construction also declined. That will weigh on economic growth this quarter, but its impact won’t be as bad as earlier in the recession. That’s because housing has shrunk so sharply.

It made up more than 6 percent of the economy at the height of the boom in 2005, but now accounts for only 2.5 percent.

High unemployment is making it harder for people to make their mortgage payments and stay in their homes.

About 9.9 percent of homeowners had missed at least one mortgage payment as of June 30, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. That number, adjusted for seasonal factors, was close to a record high of more than 10 percent at the end of April.

Friday’s report is the second of three estimates the government issues for each quarter’s GDP.

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