Archives: September 2009

Hurricane Hunter

As global stock markets navigate through the eye of the ongoing financial hurricane, it becomes increasingly important for investors still impacted by these markets to be able to gauge when the storm’s fury will reassert itself and plan accordingly. By all measures, there are a healthy number of individual investors still in the stock markets in one way or another who are hoping to recover everything lost in 2008. The good news is they’ve gotten a nice chunk back. If they’ve been proactive as we’ve advocated, then they’re ahead of the game. However, it is important to note that we are operating within the context of a bear market rally; and this bear market still has a lot of teeth left. I am writing this article now, before the DJIA cracks 10,000, because once it does no one will be listening and the opportunity will have been lost.

The Hindenburg Omen

Once it has been established that we are in fact looking for a top, the next order of business is to try to get a handle on when that top might occur. This week we’ll take a look at once such indicator; the Hindenburg Omen. Before we even start it must be said that this indicator is not a be all end all and should only be used in conjunction with other technical indicators, a broad understanding of the macroeconomic environment, and a healthy dose of common sense. It is merely a tool. It is not a magic wand. Such things do not exist.

Essentially, the Hindenburg Omen is an indicator of underlying divergence in the movement of the issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). It is stock market sonar, meant to scan underneath apparently placid waters, searching out turbulence beneath the surface. Merely looking at the daily progression of the price of the major market indexes will not glean any light whatsoever on the actual internal condition of the markets. Examples of such divergence generally happen around major tops, which is what the Omen has been rather good at sniffing out. In the past 25 years there has not been a major market crash event without a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. However, to be fair, it must also be said that every Hindenburg Omen has not resulted in a market crash during this same period of time.

Hindenburg Omen Criteria

There are 5 criteria that must be observed on a particular day in order for a Hindenburg Omen to be registered. They are:

• 52-week Highs and Lows must both be greater than 2.2% of the issues traded on NYSE.

• The lower of the Highs/Lows must be greater than 75.

• The 10-Week NYSE Moving Average must be increasing

• The McClellan Oscillator must be negative.

• The 52-week Highs cannot be more than twice the number of 52-week Lows, but the number of Lows can be more than twice that of the Highs.

• An optional condition for the Hindenburg Omen, which has been found to be extremely beneficial in honing the accuracy of the indicator, is a confirmation within 36 trading days of the initial observation. So in order to have a confirmed HO, two observations need to be made within 36 trading days of each other.

NYSE 10-Week MA

Let’s take a look at the Hindenburg Omens of the past 25 years. It is important to note that the indicator is not exclusively prescient. It will sometimes trigger prior to a crash event, sometimes it is coincident with the beginning of the crash event (the market top), and sometimes it comes slightly after the crash has begun.

Historical Occurrences

In the past 25 years, there have been 27 confirmed Hindenburg Omens and 191 individual occurrences of the Omen. Thus, the rate of occurrence was around 3%. Here’s the breakdown of what happened after those 27 confirmed Hindenburg Omens:

DJIA decline of 15% or more: 8 times or 30%

DJIA decline of 10-14.9%: 3 times or 11%

DJIA decline of 5-9.9%: 10 times or 37%

DJIA decline less than 5%: 6 times or 22%

Of the last group, 2 of the declines were less than 2% and therefore considered ‘failures’ in terms of the predictive value of the signal. Looking at it a different way, there is a near 78% chance that a confirmed Hindenburg Omen will result in a 5% or greater decline in the DJIA. In the context of the current position of the DJIA, we would have a 78% chance of at least a 480 point drop if we had a confirmed HO. Fortunately, as of this time we do not, and in fact do not have even an unconfirmed observation.

Below is the chart of data for the Confirmed Hindenburg Omens shown.

Hindenburg Omens Since 1990

Incidentally, there is no relationship at all between the number of observations and the magnitude of the resultant decline (Correlation between series: -0.01)

Date of First Signal
Number of Observations
Drop in DJIA – %
6/6/2008
6
47.3%
10/16/2007
9
16.3%
6/13/2007
8
7.1%
4/7/2006
9
7.0%
9/21/2005
5
2.2%
4/13/2004
5
5.4%
6/20/2002
5
23.9%
6/20/2001
2
25.5%
3/12/2001
4
11.4%
9/15/2000
9
12.4%
7/26/2000
3
9.0%
1/24/2000
6
16.4%
6/15/1999
2
6.7%
7/2/1998
1
19.7%
2/22/1998
2
0.2%
12/11/1997
11
5.8%
6/12/1996
3
8.8%
10/09/1995
6
1.7%
9/19/1994
7
8.2%
1/25/1994
14
9.6%
11/03/1993
3
2.1%
12/02/1991
9
3.5%
6/27/1990
17
16.3%

Where do We Stand Currently?

Based on 9/24/2009 closing numbers, this is where the various requirements for a Hindenburg Omen stand:

52-Week Highs: 157 (4.97%) – Met

52-Week Lows: 3 (.10%) – Not met

Lower Greater than 75? – Not met

52-Week Highs < 2X greater than 52-Week Lows – Not met

10-Week MA: Rising – Met

McClellan Oscillator: -112.34 – Met

The above analysis indicates that while some requirements have already been met, that the level of bearish divergence necessary to generate the required number of 52-week lows still doesn’t exist. Keep in mind that these numbers change daily and therefore, must be watched continuously.

Worth Noting

Two failures of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen to predict a more significant drop in the DJIA during the past 25 years were accompanied by significant liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve to stave off the decline. Chalk these up to either coincidence or overt market manipulation. These injections were $155 and $148 Billion and occurred in 2004 and 2005 respectively. Just three years later, multiple trillions were required and were still not enough to keep a 50% crash at bay. This alone should reinforce the notion of a hyperbolic growth in debt, leverage, and systemic risk.

Reflections on Summers Past

Published on: 09/21/2009
Comments: 2 Comments

Freelance piece by Andy Sutton and Two Cents Contributor CJH

Labor Day weekend has passed, and it is a sign that summer will soon be coming to a close, making way for the crisp signs of fall. The holiday was started in Canada, during the 1870’s, stemming from labor disputes, which had later resulted in creating legislation to protect workers, and organized union activities. It was then adopted in the US in 1882. Legislation in the US was created on the type of public activities that would happen, and how the holiday would be marked. The beginnings were filled with parades showing the strengths of the American workers, and then would end in festivals and picnics with family or friends. It has changed a bit over the years and reflects less the beginning roots of the holiday.

Today the holiday is usually one last effort to preserve summer. The signs were everywhere. People were having picnics with smells of barbeques filling the air, and the Cicadas screaming at night. Children frantically trying to squeeze in as many last trips to the pool as tired parents and stretched budgets will allow. Perhaps it’s a final run to the beach, the amusement park, or other trip for a quick weekend getaway. August is traditionally a time when families are taking the last of their vacations. It’s also a time when the ‘Back to School’ flyers begin arriving en masse on a daily basis.

Which brings us to the current conundrum and forces us to think back to the way things used to be. As people reminisce over a summer of barbecues, sun, and fun, we’re going to reminisce back to yesteryear and the way we used to get ready for school. This is not an essay dedicated to financial markets, the economy, or fiscal issues. It is not about bull or bear markets. It is two friends lamenting the departure of the frugal, fiscally responsible way of living here in America and taking a walk down memory lane. We hope you enjoy it.

As late thirty-somethings, we are probably indicative of the transition generation. We have enough ‘old school’ in us to make us completely uncool to today’s kids, but we are hip enough that they might give us 30 seconds to explain how exactly it is we’re so uncool.
However, uncoolness aside, this year is unlike any we have witnessed in quite some time. By all reasonable measures, the number of unemployed Americans is higher than it has been since at least the 1970’s when the landscape was dotted with ‘inflation gardens’, gas lines, and gold broker advertisements in the Sunday paper. The government is borrowing money faster than any time in history, racking up nearly $5 billion a DAY in deficit spending at the current rate.

At the same time, many consumers, first dealt a vicious slap in 2008 with the loss of a good deal of savings have seen 2009 deliver a follow-up blow of a Friday afternoon pink slip. How did they approach back to school time this year? Probably quite differently than they have in the past. So for the sake of reminiscing, we’re going to recall as best as we can how we and our families approached this sanguine time of year.

Andy Sutton: “I guess I would have to say that school preparation for me depended on what grade level I was at etc, but one constant was that we did an inventory before we shopped. Today it seems as though the inventory stage is skipped in many cases. But I remember going through all my supplies from the prior year. Nothing was ever thrown out, but simply put in a drawer and forgotten from June to August. Old, partially used spiral notebooks became this year’s scratch paper. Binders, instead of being thrown out, were fixed with duct tape if repairs were necessary. Old folders were patched if possible, and thrown out only if necessary. This was the way it was with everything. The same happened for clothing (minus the duct tape repairs!). Everything was inventoried, and only then was any shopping done. We weren’t poor, but we weren’t foolish either. We weren’t cheap, but we didn’t burn money either. Then we’d find the best sales and take care of the items on the shopping list. It was a quick affair, done in a couple of hours on a Friday evening – clothing shopping included. Granted, we didn’t have all the gadgets available back then to complicate our shopping trips, but there were still gadgets. However, they weren’t really marketed as being necessary for school if I remember correctly.”

CJH: “As Andy and I have discussed at various times, our childhood experiences have been quite similar, although we grew up a half a state apart, and didn’t become friends till adulthood. Could it be a cultural thing of the state we lived in, or a passing on of values from another generation? Chances are the latter, since we are both the children of the baby boomers, who had a solid sense of value instilled in them from an early age. After all they are generation whose parents grew up during the Great Depression. What will children garnish from lessons parents are teaching them from these troubling times today? In an optimistic view I might say, that they may begin to make a turn towards simpler values, and see worth in the little things just as Andy and I do. But the pessimistic part of me sees that from the headlines and observations I see everyday, we could be in for a long road till a time of change.

Before setting off for the back to school shopping my family took stock in what was needed for us kids. Always having a keen eye focused on the year to come and what we could use from the previous school year. More often than not the previous school supplies had been used over the summer to keep myself, my sister, and friends occupied with art projects. Mostly though if it could be reused it was. Generally things didn’t need much repair since I was held responsible for keeping my things in good condition. If binders or folders were in heavily worn condition they would be evaluated, and moved to other home use if they could be. But we would always have backups ready for a moments notice. Of course there was always the question of “why can’t I get this new…” or having siblings there might be the squabbles that may have come from one seeing other get more supplies than they were. But all in all my family tried to always make sure we had what we would need for school and such. It wasn’t always new, but we had what we needed.

The school clothes would be evaluated, clothes in good condition were generally relegated to a drawer for next year if they would fit, or kept aside to go to Sunday services, or other family functions. The jeans or sneakers that showed some wear were either reserved for the hours after the school day, or the school field trips that would probably end in me totally ruining something that my parents worked hard to provide. Just part of being a child I guess. At the beginning of the year I always had some new stuff, but was just as happy to wear the things that I had. In all honesty as a kid I would have been totally happy wearing the ripped play clothes to school. After all I worked hard at breaking them in to make them comfortable. One thing that stands out in my childhood memories is the usual summer trip to the fabric outlet store. This was different than the trips at other times of the year, for supplies for my mother’s business. This trip was usually for just some supplies that would be used to make clothes for my sister, and I in our childhood. I guess this is one of the benefits of having a grandmother that lived with us, who was a retired professional seamstress, and a Mom who is also very skilled with the sewing machine. During her early life, a grandmother having a job like this was very common, but seems as though this is a rarity nowadays. But that could be a whole feature in the future. As I got older, more into my mid elementary school days, school clothes such as shirts and things being made were less, but the needle and thread were always ready and waiting for repairs. The sewing was relegated to more of the Halloween costume duties, and special things.

Thinking back on some of those times, I realize that the values and stories passed from my grandparent’s generation, to their children and then to me by both generations should be something to be treasured. I’m sure anyone who reads this will have at least a few of those stories or encounters, and hopefully they look upon them fondly.”

Andy Sutton: “As teenagers of the 1980’s we really lived in a transitory generation. Electronic gadgets were starting to come to market with the advent in inexpensive integrated circuit technology. The Sony Walkman, Atari, and boom boxes started appearing in living rooms around the country for about $150 a clip. $150 in the 1980’s was quite a bit of money especially considering that credit cards were still relatively non-existent in their current role in society. These items were extremely discretionary in nature, and were certainly not ubiquitous in Middle America. The compact disc would not become popular until the early 1990’s, and the DVD was still nearly a decade off. The same can be said for home computers by and large. The computers of the 1980’s were large clunkers that ran on floppy disks and weren’t useful for much more than typing up a report then putting on ear protection when you used the printer. Mobile phones could be installed in cars, but were prohibitively expensive to use. All of these items were exclusively wants my 1980’s existence. Needs were staple goods. When we turned 16, our best hope for transportation was to find a ‘clunker’ that still ran, buy it cheap and hope it got you from point A to point B. To this day, I have never owned a new vehicle nor will I buy a vehicle on credit unless I absolutely have to. I early on got into the habit of making a car payment to myself each month, then earmarking those funds for when I actually needed one. For us, it was mostly about needs and very little about wants. That paradigm has been turned on its head in the last decade. When you really think about it, we had a lot of the same stuff 20 years ago. Granted it wasn’t as small, as fast, or as cool, but we had it. Today, the line between needs and wants has been shattered by years of clever marketing campaigns, painless purchasing thanks to credit cards, and this instilled mentality that if we don’t have these things that we are somehow unsuccessful in life. Perhaps that sounds a little bit callous, but if you take a step back and look at things, I believe you’ll agree that’s exactly where we are at.”

CJH: “I do agree things have changed so drastically in the way people approach “needs vs. wants”. I had the opportunity the other day, to hear a conversation on the train heading into work late morning. We had stopped at the airport, picking up passengers going into Washington, DC. The chat was between 2 ladies, who seemed to be acquaintances, and one had her children nearby. They were tourists headed in for the September 11, memorials, and other sight seeing. These ladies were just talking and the one looked at the other’s teenage daughter and said “you must be a spoiled girl, with all those electronics.” The girl’s mother quickly snapped to her defense and said “NO, she is not, we did not buy those things for her.” The girl turned and said, “Nope, I bought them all with my own money that I saved.” There was a second or two of silence, and she then said, “I make money babysitting.” This perked my interest but I didn’t speak up, and just closed my eyes again enjoying the ride, thinking to myself, “This kid really gets what being responsible is all about”. The 2 women went back to talking about what they were planning on seeing, and other things. Then one of the kids started to panic thinking they had lost their cell phone, and the conversation circled into talk about cell phones, and such. I thought to myself, “Why or how, have people become so dependent on the convenience of having all these things so close at hand?” I don’t have answer for my own question.

As a teen I had some of the things Andy mentioned, but not everything was a “need to have it” – most were luxury items. Probably the biggest had to have item for a kid in their late adolescence or early teens were the Walkman or an Atari. Most households didn’t have the more than one pc, if they had one at all, or laptops, iPods, etc., like we have today. If a family had any of them it was usually only one of something and the kids shared it, from what I remember. Summers were filled with things like camping, playing ball, skateboarding or riding bikes. I still see these today, but I also see the kids toting all the gadgets with them while they are out. I had a walkman “Knock off”, had the Atari, and other game systems, but not all at once. If I wanted to get a new game system, then I had to sell my other one to get money to put towards the new one and my parents would help if I didn’t have enough to make the purchase. After all that’s what summer yard sales were for. To clear out the old and make room for the new, not just keep accumulating. Buying a car and paying insurance were similar, I had to work, and if I came up short then I would get assistance, but the bulk of the money had to come from me earning it. These were lessons that would eventually prepare me for college.

My summer before going off to college was filled with work and the usual things. Trying to make as much money as possible to be ready to go was a high priority though. I applied for my first credit card, after hearing stories from my parents about their first foray into this when they were young. So I followed suit, and got a Sears card. I seem to remember the task of applying for it was a bit daunting. Staring at the application which had to be at least 3 or more pages with lots of blocks to fill in, and fine print, there was a lot of things left blank. Mostly due to a lack of credit history, since this is what I wanted to actually gain. I recall there being a waiting period, not like today where there are pre-approved account applications that show up in the mail for people to just sign and go.

Once in college, the plan was to find a job and work while in school. Well as circumstances would have it, finding a job was tough, most of the jobs that college kids would have were filled, so I had to make the decision of keep looking for work, or concentrate on school. School won, so the employment would be relegated to the summer between classes. As I spent my first year away from home, I learned the value of budgeting. So in order to budget wisely I learned the tricks of buying things on the cheap. Skipping a few meals wasn’t out the scenario either. But all in all I faired well.

Andy Sutton: “My college experience wasn’t much different really than high school, but just a bit more complex. I was responsible for paying for all of my own supplies, books, and any discretionary items in addition to a large portion of the tuition. I worked part-time throughout college and full-time during the summer to collect the money necessary to pay for car insurance, the above items and meet the interest payments on my student loans until I graduated. There were no Spring Break trips to Cancun, Florida, or even the mall in many cases. Spring Break was a week to work. To be honest, I knew of very few folks that took trips like that throughout my college years. Today, it is commonplace, and is thought to be some sort of birthright. I remember getting my first credit card in college. It was a GM Card, and it had a limit of $250, which was later raised to $500 after I had proven my responsibility by always paying my bills in full each time I used the card. I had an ironclad rule, and that was if I didn’t have the money in my bank account to pay, then I didn’t use the card. I was able to get into this habit because of good coaching by my parents who felt it was best to use the card only for things I would be buying anyway such as college books. At the time, credit cards were not nearly as widely accepted as they are now, and many places like gas stations didn’t accept them at all or if they did, you had to pay a premium above the cash price for your gas. Cash back reward programs were non-existent. So I had my card for the 4 years I was in college, and a year of interning and never made a late payment or carried a balance. I am not bragging, but am emphasizing the value of building good habits early. To this day, I have never once carried a balance on a credit card, and have never paid one thin dime in financing charges on a credit card. That is the old school part of my generation. Most of us were trained to revile debt, and accept it only for major purchases like homes and perhaps cars. The problem is what started out with homes and cars has now transcended into what were formerly regarded as discretionary areas such as consumer electronics, furniture and home improvements. Unfortunately, many of us fell off the wagon so to speak and gave into impulses and the desire to keep up with the Joneses.

In my opinion, it is no accident that predator card companies target young folks going off to college. They know these kids will be the least able to ward off the peer pressure and many will bury themselves in debt. The numbers don’t lie; today’s kids don’t just leave college with student loans; they leave with large credit card bills too.”

The Quiet Grab

While all the hubbub here in the US has centered around abominations such as cash 4 clunkers, tax credits for buying homes, and the other machinations directed at returning the US to the blissful year of 2005, other portions of the world have taken notice and have been conducting some activities of their own. They have been locking down ever-growing stockpiles of critical basic materials needed to run their economies. These strategic moves have certainly not been done in secret, but given how we spend our intellectual energies here in America, they might as well have been. Leading the pack has been China, but there have certainly been others.

Venezuela’s $16 Billion Oil Deal

On 9/17/09, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez announced in a brief statement that his country had entered into a $16 billion oil deal with the Chinese to further develop the Orinoco project and ramp up Venezuelan production by 900,000 barrels per day. This agreement is separate from a similar deal inked in October of last year that promised an unspecified amount of Venezuelan production to the Chinese. The important thing to note is that Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA not only committed to ship oil East, but will essentially operate a joint venture with Beijing for the purposes of developing further reserves. At the time, Chavez was optimistic that his country would become China’s top oil supplier.

Of important note in the oil space is the fact that the #3 supplier of oil to the US is Mexico and its production has experienced a steady decline since 2004 and is now in a full state of export destruction. While much ado has been made of the Bakken formation in the western US, some reality must be brought to bear on all the misinformation being disbursed. The US Geological Survey has stated that the formation could contain 4 billion barrels of oil. While getting every drop is impossible, let’s assume for a moment that we can. Even in the throes of the worst economic contraction since the 1930’s the US still burns up about 19 million barrels of oil each day. Using that as a basis, the Bakken contains a whopping 210.53 days of US supply – about 7 months worth. Not really a big deal is it? For comparison, the USGS estimates Alaskan oil reserves including the North Slope to contain 90 billion barrels. Again, let’s assume we can recover every drop of it. The situation here is a bit better and we’ll get about 13 years of supply at current burn rates. Note that doesn’t account for any economic growth, which carries a proportional increase in petroleum consumption under our current transportation, power, and living systems.

Mexican Oil Production

Keep in mind I am being purposely US centric here to frame the issue in simple terms. The recent strategic agreements the Chinese have entered into should take on a whole new significance when looking at the information through the lens of what is actually available to us domestically. Sure, they might have a large find in Brazil. Is it really safe to assume that we’ll command it? The Dollar is already looked upon with contempt thanks to decades of abuse and there is no indication that is about to change any time soon. Unfortunately, the strategic accumulations don’t stop at oil.

China’s Rare Earth Metal Monopoly

While much of the talk in the US recently has shifted to green technology, there is a glaring oversight being made. These new technologies, while solving one complex problem, create another. Much of today’s array of battery technology, fuel cells, wind turbines and solar panels requires an available supply of rare earth metals (REMs) for production. For the past decade and a half, the Chinese have been quietly accumulating large, unrivaled stockpiles as well as a near monopoly in the production of these critical metals. So successful were they that 95% of the lanthanide (periodic table) series metals are produced in China. These metals are used in everything from iPods to hybrid cars. China’s 1987 pledge to become the Saudi Arabia of REMs has come true says Jack Lifton, a REM specialist. The Japanese government sees REMs being the turf for future trade wars, especially since the island country imports almost 100% of its supply from China.

REM Production 2006

As the above chart illustrates, China has a near complete stranglehold on the supply of REMs as a group and a healthy stockpile to boot. Even more importantly, mainland demand is now eating away at exports. And unfortunately, unlike oil, large deposits of REMs are not scattered all over the globe. The only real bit of good news that can be attained from the chart is that supply is still growing. Unfortunately there are no meaningful stockpiles to speak of outside mainland China.

We used to have some domestic sources of these critical metals, but unfortunately, many of those mining operations were scuttled during the price wars of the early 1990s and expensive overhauls would be necessary to get them back in production. Many industry analysts fear that Beijing will be able to affect a serious supply crunch before any meaningful competitive supply can be brought to market. Another shining example of how supply doesn’t automatically appear to quench demand even though the textbooks suggest otherwise. This has resulted in a frantic scramble throughout Southeast Asia as Japanese car and electronic manufacturers try to lock down alternative sources.

Meanwhile the Chinese have sought to solidify their position as the REM capitol of the world. A state-owned investment company recently purchased a 25% stake in Arafura the Australian REM miner. In August, China Minmetals Rare Earth Company made an investment of $310 Million to lock in its dominant position in an already tight industry.

The REM situation has massive implications for the United States and our desire to go green. Without these metals, many green alternatives are not possible given current technology constraints. It also has implications for our consumption of electronic consumer goods, many of which end up in landfills when they no longer work.

Some possible conclusions that can be drawn from these activities don’t paint a good picture for the continuation of activities here in the US as we’re used to. If the countries that supply us with many of our products are locking in stockpiles, it would be rather foolish for us to assume that they’ve done so in order to continue exchanging these dwindling resources for green paper tickets as they have been doing. This becomes even more evident when one considers that much of this stockpiling didn’t exist just a few years ago.

Certainly another contributing factor is that the perceptions of the dollar have grown so pessimistic that many countries are diversifying into hard assets. However, rather than creating a speculative bubble, the strategy being invoked is a longer-term accumulation strategy. They buy the dips and take delivery. This is a testament of the growing disdain of paper assets, particularly currencies. The paradigm shift, which happened not too long in the recent past, is now moving into a higher gear.

Even if this activity ends up being nothing more than a global diversification strategy, which isn’t likely, then the law of unintended consequences kicks in and America will likely face nasty resource shortages as a result sooner than most are willing to admit.

The Opportunity.. A Year Later

Last October was a pretty brutal time to be in the prognostication business. I had just called Gold the opportunity of a lifetime at the end of August at a price of around $800/ounce. By the time late October came around, the price had fallen to around $725 and the catcalls had begun in earnest. The Keynesian Kakistocracy was out in full force, hurling insults so rich and humorous that I felt compelled to write some of them down. Now a year later it is time to do another quick review and probably set myself up for yet another barrage of hate mail if the price of Gold doesn’t immediately set a course for Mars.

Yes, we are one year removed from that column and Gold is up 25% in dollar terms at nearly $1000/ounce. Detractors will quickly point out Gold’s inability to land and stick above the $1000 level. In return, I will point at the Dollar’s failed rally to 90 as measured by the USDX. Detractors will point to a lack of interest and dividends from investing in Gold. I will point out that Gold is not an investment; it is money. However, for those who insist on comparing Gold to stocks, I will point out that in the year since the last article, Gold is up 25% while the Dow Jones Industrials are down 19%. Detractors will point out the new bull market in stocks. I’ll counter with the fact that stocks are merely in the middle of a countertrend rally within a bear market while Gold’s correction last year was a countertrend move within a bull market. Detractors will point to the save-haven status of the Dollar during times of economic distress. I’ll counter with the fact that Congress has ensured that the Dollar will die of nearly two trillion cuts – in FY 2009 alone. Must we really continue this?

So on the anniversary of the beginning of the first in extremis phase of the financial crisis, we’re going to look at two of the many developing situations that should give us pause when considering the stability of our financial structures despite all the positive rhetoric and hopefully compel us to consider how to adequately protect ourselves.

China’s stop-loss

Earlier this week, China released some rather earthshaking news that was barely reported by the diligent media here in the US. And where it was reported, the significance was completely glossed over or even ignored. The Chinese Government gave a directive to its state banks to cut their losses on commodity related derivatives, many of which are tied to NY and London banks. In doing so, the Chinese government is in essence saying it no longer respects the validity of these specific performance contracts, pointing out that without performance, there is nothing special about the contracts.

This is tantamount to a shot across the bow. The commodities portion of the total notional value of all OTC derivatives as of December 2008 is rather small at .75% of the total. Telling Wall Street to take a long walk off a short pier in this instance will probably not destroy the financial system in and of itself, but it will certainly give the bailout boys a hint of what could happen if the Chinese et al (think BRIC) start backing out of other more important areas such as interest rate swaps which were nearly 55% of the total notional value. (Data courtesy of BIS)

Derivatives

Even the most diehard of Keynesians, who have never seen a deficit they didn’t love, are aware of the fact that it is much more favorable to have foreign cooperation in your currency burying than to have to do it on your own with direct (or around the woodpile) monetization. In that regard, they still need the Chinese if for nothing else than maintaining the façade of vendor financing and the maintenance of the status quo.

Stock markets reacted poorly to the news on Tuesday with the DOW losing nearly 200 points on a day where there was a bevy of ‘green shoots’ economic news in the form of ISM manufacturing data, pending home sales, and motor vehicle sales. Financial stocks led the decline and we must wonder if the smart money had its eyes on the Chinese as the day progressed. On Wednesday, Gold broke out of its recent doldrums and immediately headed north. Granted the technical patterns had been predicting the breakout for the past few weeks, but it is rather coincidental and we have to ask if we are not beginning to see the first shockwave from the recent Chinese action? If so, Gold gets a big thumbs up, while paper assets get the boot.

FDIC: The paper tiger is going to need more paper

“We’ve all seen the good news that has come out on the economy in the past few weeks. While challenges remain, evidence is building that the American economy is starting to grow again. But no matter how challenging the environment … the FDIC has ample resources to continue protecting insured depositors as we have for the last 75 years. No insured depositor has ever lost a penny of insured deposits … and no one ever will.”

The above statement, made by FDIC boss Sheila Bair is overflowing with inaccuracies, but for the purposes of this article, I want to focus on the last sentence. The FDIC’s ‘trust fund’ is dry. At the beginning of 2008, the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) had a balance of approximately $52.8 Billion. By the end of 2008, the DIF had been drained to around $17.3 Billion on the back of just 25 bank failures. To date in 2009, there have been 81 failures, with the two largest failures of the recession coming in the last month. At the end of Q1 2009, the DIF balance had already been reduced to $13.1 Billion. In addition, the list of ‘troubled’ (read: dead) banks now stands at 416 as of the FDIC’s latest quarterly report.

Ms. Bair, in her statement alluded to the notion that the FDIC sets aside reserves for anticipated failures. The problem is that their estimates of the total impact of failures have been categorically low during the recent run of bank failures. In fact the actual losses have been nearly twice (1.94X) the estimates by FDIC. In the following graphic, used in Ms. Bair’s presentation, the FDIC has estimated the cost of failures to be $32 Billion. If recent history is any guide, the real cost is likely to be a tick over $62 Billion. Given that the balance of the DIF is now at $10.4 Billion, I’d say they have more than a small problem.

FDIC Accounting

What is even more interesting is that Ms. Bair considers money borrowed from the Treasury (taxpayers) and thrown into a black hole to be an asset and her chart above fails to recognize that such a loan creates a liability as well. However, this is indicative of our new accounting paradigm. In addition, she asserts that the FDIC is entirely ‘industry-funded’. Not so when they’re tapping a Treasury credit line. While most folks are sniffing a bailout of FDIC, I wouldn’t count on it. So far, the vast majority of the bailout money has found its way to Wall Street, not Main Street.

So while the FDIC is bragging that no insured depositor has ever lost a penny and never will, it must be noted that it is incorrect to assume that Congress is under any type of mandate to bailout FDIC. When the DIF requires massive borrowing from the Treasury, bank premiums will be increased in a vain attempt cover the cost, which will mean higher borrowing costs for the real economy. And if Congress does step in and bailout FDIC, the amount will just get tacked onto the national debt. So while large banks gobble up smaller ones and consolidate on the back of TARP, TALF, TSLF and a dozen other ‘emergency’ Fed lending programs, everyday Americans will foot the bill in its entirety. How’s that for a guarantee?

The above items are just a sampling of where we stand a year later. The opportunity offered by precious metals is the opportunity rid oneself of counterparty risk. The Dollar is the ultimate example of counterparty risk as it relies on the responsible performance of government and monetary authorities to maintain its value. Since the two aforementioned entities have been absentee custodians of the Dollar for so long, its value has deteriorated dramatically. Precious metals have allowed individuals to compensate for that loss in purchasing power. Pundits will say that Gold is a lousy investment and they’re right. The problem with their thinking is that Gold is not an investment; it is sound money and should be regarded as such, not with contempt as is routinely the case in the mainstream press corps.

So as we begin another September, a time of year that seems to bring out the worst in our financial and banking system, I will say it again – Gold continues to be the opportunity of a lifetime.

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Welcome , today is Sunday, 02/05/2012