For people looking to the elections as a fulcrum for lower gas prices, hope is beginning to fade. Even with wild gyrations in the price of oil, it would take a meaningful and lasting decline to have even a chance at driving down prices at the pump. Given the fact that upstream margins are already squeezed due to an unwillingness to charge much more than the current price, it is very likely that wholesale RBOB gas prices would have to drop at least 50-75 cents per gallon and hold there for us to see any relief.
Beware though of the GSCI trick of September 2006. Back then, Goldman Sachs re-weighted its commodity index which resulted in the massive sale of natural gas contracts as funds who adhere to index rebalanced their holdings. It has taken natural gas prices quite some time to recover, but recover they have. The same stunt, or a similar one could be in store to create a nice election surprise.
However, the biggest problem with this type of action is that if you lower the weighting of one item, you must increase the weighting of something else, which will cause it to go up. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a free lunch.