Archives: July 2008

Comments from a MTC reader

Published on: 07/30/2008
Categories: Current Events, Economics
Comments: 5 Comments

Sometimes our readers say it so perfectly it deserves the world’s attention…

“The purpose of the media is to provide sound bites, rile the masses while
keeping them subdued at the same time, and evoke a sense of fear. Our
government wants us to be afraid, because fear allows manipulation. Think
of the war on terror, war on drugs, war on poverty, peak oil, and global
warming All of these wars are directed at the populace by the government
and through the media. Wars on anything allow governments to redistribute
resources and levy taxes. We have to get ourselves unafraid and start
thinking, rationally, about how much sense this propaganda makes.

Bad news sells – good news does not. People gravitate towards trajedy to
gain perspective of their own lives. Back when I was a kid the poor
starving children in China was my perspective with regards to my life. The
fear of starving children in China was used by many adults to get their kids
to clean their plates. I actually had a friend who was convinced that if
she did not clean up then a child would starve in China. No doubt, my
friend had a weight problem at the ripe old age of 8. The media also
provides a platform for people who do really stupid stuff (like let their
babies drown in swimming pools) appear remoursful, in need of sympathy, and
not at fault. I still have not figured out how a child can drown at a pool
party with lots of adults around.

I have been reading more about this housing bill and I am seeing hints that
this may be more skewed towards an eminent domain bill. It may be up to
the counties and those cities within the counties to organize, take over the
properties and either lease them out or bulldoze and allow people to plant
community gardens and orchards. As a positive, if the states are smart and
can get assistance from benefactors and the business community, I can see
more housing for students, more housing for people who qualify under H.U.D.,
more halfway houses for non-violent offenders who can be rehabilitated, and
homes for children aged out of foster care and nowhere to go. Small
businesses could also lease out these homes, as could seniors who don’t or
can’t live alone, but don’t want to live in traditional assisted living or
nursing care facilities. Yes, this is very utopian but I don’t see as there
will be any money for big commercial developments. And what a wonderful
opportunity to see kindness and healing prevailing over greed.

Andy, I hope we don’t see hyperinflation and I am going to keep thinking
positive on that one while I make myself drunk on my expensive Belgian
chocolate. The next big wave of credit cards, car loans, and student loan
defaults may show Bernanke et al that the patient is dead and life support has been
disconnected.

What happens when the pay-options reset next year is a guess, but I don’t
believe that this housing bill is looking out much farther than the day
after it goes into effect. I also believe that the main focus of this bill
is getting/or keeping people into homes that are vacant or may be vacant
this year.
 
I don’t know if the prevailing events are what Shumpter had in mind when he
spoke his theory of creative destruction, but what is coming up in the
credit markets could unravel the existing structures and even allow some
semblance of financial sanity in its place. This, to me is what Paulson and
the bankers do not want to have happen because it will expose them as well
as bankrupt their fiefdom and those they serve. If indeed bankruptcy was
not a possibility I do not believe we would be seeing such papering over and
further tampering in the financial markets. Those with the most to lose tend
to lose the most, thus it is in their best interest for now to keep as many
SIVS and other conduits off the books. Marking to market can be a real bear
as perhaps Merrill Lynch is discovering.

The hilarity of this is that with more stuff piled on top of the existing
structures the weaker these structures become. I’m wondering about the
introduction of covered bonds and if those fail where do they go? Into the
Fannie and Freddie vault? Truly we are witnessing the insanity of greed.
One my favorite authors,Taylor Caldwell stated that “Love is the imminent
destroyer of logic and intelligence.” I think I would substitute Greed for Love.

There are some good statesmen in office and these will be the men that
eventually lead us out of this mess. And, until the devasting effects of
boom and bust cycles are understood history will continue to repeat. The
current dislocations and maladjustments in the credit markets today and coming up
portend a situation that will take several years to clear.” – Joan from AZ

Fed lending facilities become 'permanent'

Published on: 07/30/2008
Comments: 4 Comments

When the Fed came up with its alphabet soup of mini bailouts for Wall Street banks back at the beginning of the year, these programs were touted as being temporary measures to stave off the credit crisis and followed the Fed’s flawed belief that the crisis would be short-lived. Today, those programs were extended (again). We told our readers that these programs would become permanent in time and they are doing exactly that. This means the inflation created by them is now baked into the cake.

In market news, stocks have been in rally mode since our last issue of the Centsible Investor was released just as we forecasted: “Our view right now is that the major indexes will see a brief rally over the next few weeks…” Become a subscriber to find out what happens next! In just 8 months, this fast-growing publication has had a stellar track record of picking tops and bottoms even though that is not it’s primary objective. Find more information visit the link below:

http://www.suttonfinance.net/newsletter.php

While all this has been going on, we have watched oil prices continue to fall; although not as precipitously as previously observed. The odd thing is the logic going on here. Follow along for a second.

1) OIl prices are going down – the main reason given is worries about economic growth.

2) Stock markets are using this ‘news’ to rally.

3) Stock prices are generally forward indicators of the state of corporate earnings.

4) If the economy is slowing, we would expect earnings to decrease so why all the excitement on Wall Street?

Keep your eye on the ball folks; things are about to get very interesting; as if they haven’t been already.

Bailout Information Kit

Published on: 07/28/2008
Tags: , , , ,
Comments: 4 Comments

Over the past 3 days, I have compiled quite a few resources for the public to use with regards to the bailout situation, which is gathering steam as the financial crisis unfolds. We have now had the tab for a Fannie/Freddie bailout hung around our necks in addition to the billions needed to prepare Bear Stearns for rescue not to mention the additional billions pumped into the system through TAF and TSLF. This is far from over. FDIC and PBGC are next in line, followed by Social Security and Medicare in the near future.

Last Friday’s piece contains what can be used as an open letter to Senators, Congressmen, and the White House to decry the recent housing bill with President Bush’s signature forthcoming or to rail against future rescue measures. See last Friday’s piece below:

Read More

Last night’s ‘Beat the Street’ covered the same topic, giving listeners more details about the situation and what is likely to transpire moving forward because of the fiscal recklessness. Listen via the link below:

mp3

Today I was asked to record a segment for the new contraryinvestorscafe.com feature entitled ‘Soap Box’. I chose to speak about HR3221 and the likelihood of more bailouts as we move further into the crisis. It should be posted on 7/29/2008. I will follow-up with a link as soon as the piece is published.

Only the Beginning

Published on: 07/27/2008
Comments: 5 Comments

In a March 2007 ‘My Two Cents’ dispatch, I discussed some prior bailouts and the likelihood for a bailout in the housing arena. Much to the chagrin of common sense, the Senate rubber-stamped yet another bailout; this time for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. The disturbing trend here is that the size of these bailouts continues to grow with each subsequent action. The Fed has already cranked hundreds of billions of dollars into our banking system to keep it solvent. The Europeans have cranked at least that much, if not more. And the problems behind all this – excessive credit, lax lending standards, and financial irresponsibility have yet to be addressed.

As we move forward, the sums of money required to ‘fix’ all that ails the financial system will only grow. Guaranteeing profits for Wall Street banks while handing Main Street the bill is the kind of outrage that should have Americans screaming in the streets, yet nary a whimper of protest is heard. Until this changes, the bailouts will get bigger, along with the bill that will eventually need to be paid.

Oil swoon fuels bank rally

Published on: 07/23/2008
Comments: 4 Comments

As we’ve watched the recent rally unfold, it has made total sense that falling oil prices would be the fuel. Lower oil and gasoline prices are politically favorable and benefit politicians as they come with hat in hand to beg for votes come November. What caught nearly everyone by surprise though was the trigger for the rally. It wasn’t some big news event. It wasn’t some fundamental change. It certainly wasn’t the explicit guarantee from Secy Paulson that the government would sop up whatever worthless debt Fannie and Freddie have on their books with fresh, unbacked Dollars.

Rather, it took the SEC’s announcement that it would selectively enforce a standing rule and ban naked shorting of the financial stocks for 30 days to throw this temporary floor under the embattled sector. The rout of oil has added fuel to the fire. However, sooner or later, myopic traders will figure out two things:

a) There are still a ton of problems to befall the financials – this crisis is nowhere near over;

b) if our oil prices get too low, the supplies will go elsewhere.

Remember the demand is 87 million bpd, supply is 85 million bpd. Despite media assertions otherwise, US demand has not fallen off that much. 4.3% to be exact since Memorial Day weekend and almost all of that falloff has been in jet fuel. Gasoline demand is flat, even at $4/gallon. This type of environment does not support a sustained decrease in price, much to the chagrin of those betting on the banks.

Is your bank on it?

Published on: 07/22/2008
Comments: 4 Comments

The FDIC’s top-secret list of distressed banks allegedly stands at well over 90 institutions at the current time. Even as euphoria sweeps through the stock markets and traders unabashedly put other people’s money on the line as they dive into the financial stocks, we can still see the shockwaves emanating from the epicenter of the IndyMac situation. Checks from the newly federalized bank have been held for up to 5 days causing people to miss payments on bills and experience other types of unnecessary inconveniences. With all manner of institutions in trouble, more and more depositors are asking their bank, “Are you on it”

During a banking crisis, a bird in hand is clearly better than two in the bush. The take home message here is to get at least some of your money in cash until this crisis subsides. While each person’s comfort level will be different, having enough cash to get you through 2-3 weeks should suffice for most. Even if your bank fails, you will still have enough liquidity on hand to make payments on your bills thereby avoiding late fees and finance charges. Sure you’ll give up a few dollars in interest, but isn’t peace of mind worth it?

Financials-led rally running out of steam?

Published on: 07/21/2008
Comments: 3 Comments

More is not always a good thing. The law of marginal utility played out in an odd way on Wall Street as the 4th day of bank earnings that weren’t as bad as expected failed to put any punch into the markets. We’ve seen diminishing returns ever since reports began last week. Huge losses are bad, no matter how you look at it, and the logic that things could have been worse only goes so far.

In the meantime, the energy markets mounted the first serious attempt at a rally today with oil leading the way, up a modest $2.16/bbl at $131 and change. Natural gas was flat as it searches for a bottom to the recent correction.  Drivers for today’s action were Iran and a potential for hurricane formation in the Gulf of Mexico.

In other markets, US Treasuries were essentially flat, as was the US Dollar as traders appear to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. Questions that remain unanswered as of today include:

1) How much money will be required to bail out Fannie/Freddie? Secy Paulson wouldn’t say, opting to ask for a blank check. His new book “How to inspire confidence” is due out any day now.

2) Where will aforementioned money come from?  This has huge implications for TIC, interest rates, and the Dollar moving forward. Secy Paulson had no specific comments when asked about this minor detail.

All in all, nothing has changed; listen to our Internet radio show from last night where we discussed this in greater detail. A link to the show is below:

Get it Here

Also, we have redesigned our charts page at the My Two Cents website and now feature 24hgold.com Flash charts for energy, precious metals and currencies – check them out today!

A quiet ending to a wild week

Published on: 07/19/2008
Comments: 4 Comments

For a wild week, Friday certainly ended with a whimper. US equity markets were flat until the very end of the session when they steered North. Oil was up most of the day before succumbing to late session selling. The US Dollar was essentially flat and bonds drifted down a few ticks.

The media trumpeted today’s failures as successes. A $9 Billion loss is good if we say we were expecting a $10 Billion one. Like August 2007 and March of this year, the media is unabashedly calling the bottom of the banking mess. Stocks will be higher etc etc. I beg to differ simply because nothing has changed. Think about it. The government pledged your children’s future to back Fannie and Freddie and the SEC decided to finally enforce one of its rules. That’s it. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. The bad debts are still there. Trillions of dollars of specific performance contracts (OTC derivatives) are still in place. The balance sheets of entities from the average household to Uncle Sam are in a shambles. The economy is still sinking. In other words, the fuel that has powered this fire so far is still there.

Nothing has changed.

Hope for lower gas prices fades

Published on: 07/15/2008
Comments: 4 Comments

For people looking to the elections as a fulcrum for lower gas prices, hope is beginning to fade. Even with wild gyrations in the price of oil, it would take a meaningful and lasting decline to have even a chance at driving down prices at the pump. Given the fact that upstream margins are already squeezed due to an unwillingness to charge much more than the current price, it is very likely that wholesale RBOB gas prices would have to drop at least 50-75 cents per gallon and hold there for us to see any relief.

Beware though of the GSCI trick of September 2006. Back then, Goldman Sachs re-weighted its commodity index which resulted in the massive sale of natural gas contracts as funds who adhere to index rebalanced their holdings. It has taken natural gas prices quite some time to recover, but recover they have. The same stunt, or a similar one could be in store to create a nice election surprise.

However, the biggest problem with this type of action is that if you lower the weighting of one item, you must increase the weighting of something else, which will cause it to go up. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Complacency rules on banking crisis

Published on: 07/14/2008
Comments: 1 Comment

This is no longer just a credit crisis. This is now a full-blown financial crisis with the second largest banking failure in US history occurring over the weekend. There is a good deal of concern from regulators and market watchers alike about a cascade of banking failures. Yet, listening to many stories on television and other media outlets, consumer are being told not to worry. Keep spending; your money is safe. Is it though?

I would say to inquiring minds that the actual dollars are safe. They can be created from nothing at almost no cost. Thanks to the advent of electronic banking, they can be created by a few keystrokes on a computer terminal. What isn’t safe though is the value of those Dollars. In fact, the value of your Dollars was under attack well before the first adjustable rate mortgage was even written. Remember that every bailout and bank rescue just necessitates the creation of more Dollars; without corresponding economic growth. This is a recipe for inflation. The sins of 2006 are just now being felt by consumers. What about when we get to 2007 and 2008? If you intend to protect your wealth, you’d better stay tuned, read the commentaries on our site that discussed preservation of wealth and ACT. Some of these strategies were published two years ago and you can see the results of the strategies so far. It is not too late.

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