Archives: June 2008

The Post-Fed Wrap up

Published on: 06/26/2008
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The Fed did as predicted yesterday and stood pat on interest rates, claiming they are worried about inflation? This is an utter joke since they and they alone are the ones that create inflation. They have this power, because they control the money supply, which in turn controls the direction of overall price levels. It is that simple. 

The currency markets are not buying the Fed’s line as the Dollar Index sold off more than a half percent yesterday after the decision and is down nearly that much again already this morning as of this writing. The currency markets knew what was going to happen yesterday for some time, hence the sideways action in the Dollar. The next few weeks will be important to see where we go next. The cards are lined up for a lower Dollar and the Fed/Treasury would love that, but they can’t come right out and say it. So expect the verbal campaign to continue, but little in the way of action.

Taking a 'Coffee Break'

I will be interviewed tomorrow for the next edition of contraryinvestorscafe.com’s weekly audio series ‘Coffee Break’.  We will be discssing strategies that may be used by investors during times of market volatility, especially given the fact that the more ‘safe’ investments are riddled with negative real yields. I will post back here with a link as soon as one is available. I would strongly recommend to anyone interested in these topics to listen to those weekly interviews. I’ve included a link to their site on the blog’s toolbar as well. My Two Cents will be entering into a strategic partnership with CIC very shortly. More details to follow as that gets closer.

Today’s market action was mostly quiet after some morning fireworks as the markets prepare for the release of all-important (sarcasm mine) FOMC statement tomorrow at 2:15 PM. I’m going out on a limb here and will say they do nothing rate-wise, but they’ll talk tough on inflation. That will cause the Dollar to bounce briefly. Let’s see how it plays out!

Wishful thinking?

Published on: 06/23/2008
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Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia called an oil summit aimed at identifying the reason for persistently high oil prices. The summit ended with little in the way of an explanation other than blaming speculators and a pledge of sorts to pump an additional two hundred thousand barrels per day.

Mainstream Media outlets in the US immediately jumped on this as another in a growing line of reasons for the price of oil to fall. Barrons’ piece stood out in particuar to me as more wishful thinking than anything else.

“In the next decade, oil indeed may hit $200 a barrel. But prices could fall to $100 a barrel by the end of this year if Saudi Arabia makes good on its pledge to increase production; global demand eases; the Federal Reserve begins lifting short-term interest rates; the dollar rallies, and investors stop pouring money into the oil market. China raised prices on retail gasoline and diesel fuel by 18% Thursday, in a move that is expected to curb demand.”  Read the full story here:

Barron’s case

I counted no less than 5 conditions that will need to be met to see oil fall to $100 in their opinion. It reminded me of an old tag line that goes something like if ‘ands, ifs, and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas”

At least so far, the oil market is not impressed with either Saudi Arabia or Barrons. Spot oil prices are up $1.87 at $137.23 as of noon EDT.

Moody day for AMBAC/MBIA

Published on: 06/20/2008
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Moody’s Rating Service cut the AAA ratings of monoline bond insurers AMBAC and MBIA this morning before the opening bell. S&P had cut the AAA rating of both companies after market close on June 5th. For more information on this situation, read commentary from June 6th here:

The Story no one is talking about

The markets today are reacting to continued deterioration in the financial sector, rebounding Crude oil prices, and a sharply weaker Dollar. Today’s price action is being made even more dicey because of quadruple witching. Quadruple witching is the date each quarter that stock options, stock index options, single stock futures, and stock index futures expire. The next QW will be in September.

We are still feeling for the bottom in stocks. Short-term, we are oversold on most measures, however, it should be noted that significant declines can still occur even from oversold levels. The 12,000 level, then the 11,700 level are the levels to watch.  The DOW is currently in the 11,900 neighborhood and the S&P around 1325. We’ll need to see if these levels hold through the end of day.

Decisions, Decisions

Published on: 06/19/2008
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Thursday has been a day of indecision for the markets. The DOW in particular has seesawed between positive and negative territory the entire session. The good news is that the action towards the end of the session has prices moving into positive territory. We may have hit or be near a short-term bottom.  Odds of a small bounce from here are favorable at this point. We still believe there is more downside action ahead, however.

Much of the afternoon action in the DOW has been attributed to a drop in oil prices on the news that China is cutting its fuel subsidy by 17%. In the long term, this news is inconsequential. Oil prices had been down by as much as $4/bbl, but have recovered slightly over the past hour or so.

In related news, two former Bear Stearns fund managers were taken into custody on a nine-count indictment related to the collapse of two Bear Stearns Hedge Funds last year. The collapse of the two funds is now widely regarded as the event that kicked off the ongoing credit crisis.

Major Indexes continue to struggle

Published on: 06/18/2008
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The DOW Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ and the S&P500 indexes are all down on Wednesday. The DOW is leading the way, edging closer to the 12,000 level which constitutes major support along a 34 year trendline dating back to 1974. A significant break below 12,000 at this point in time would be huge and a significant bearish development. 

In other markets, oil is flat, the Dollar is down mildly, bonds are up with the yield on the 10-year bond sitting at 4.14%. We discussed the bond situation in May’s issue of the Centsible Investor saying the short-term top in bond yields was either in or very close. We have seen yields drop 10 basis points since.

In a notable news development the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has issued a crash warning for stocks and credit instruments, saying that a significant deterioration in market conditions is likely over the next three months. In their opinion, the credit crisis is nowhere close to being over. I couldn’t agree more. See the full story below:

Read Here

Irwin Kellner's Misstep

Published on: 06/17/2008
Categories: Economics
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Irwin Kellner of Marketwatch stepped on his own toes big time today by saying the Fed has actually decreased the growth of the money supply to a near-zero rate. Read his assertions here:

Kellner tells Fed what to do

John Williams publishes what are generally regarded as reputable statistics on most government data series. His work can be found here:

Alternate Data

This appears to be yet another round in the recent rhetorical campaign to try to move the Dollar. I called him on this in an email and his response was to quote the St. Louis Fed’s weekly data. The data for M2 can be found below and directly conflict with what John Williams reports. It should be noted that John Williams M2 data is not reconstructed like his M3 series since the Fed still reports M2.

Page 6

We’re going to have to watch this one; something is clearly amiss here. Either the Fed’s data is wrong, Williams’ data is wrong or the Fed has changed the way they count M2 and didn’t bother to tell anyone.

 

 

Welcome to the My Two Cents Blog

Published on: 06/16/2008
Categories: General Housekeeping
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Rather than using a forum which generated persistent traffic from those trying to push undesirable material, I am going to be using a blog format. If you would like to contribute your opinion, research, news articles etc, please contact me and I will be more than happy to add you to the list.

The purpose of this blog is make occasional observations and postings of news articles and brief commentary outside what I normally write about in my weekly work “My Two Cents” and our premium service “The Centsible Investor” Ideally, there will be a couple of contributors who help facilitate some discussion on the more important topics. 

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